--- title: "Musk paints another \"pie in the sky\": SpaceX's revenue will exceed one trillion by 2030! Wall Street begins to recalculate this account" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289756757.md" description: "Elon Musk predicts that SpaceX's revenue will exceed $1 trillion by 2030, prompting Wall Street to reassess. Although SpaceX's market value has surpassed $2 trillion, it has recently turned from profit to loss, and its current profitability is far below that of giants like Broadcom and Amazon. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have provided optimistic forecasts, but analysts are cautious about achieving this aggressive target, believing that an extremely high growth rate is necessary to reach it" datetime: "2026-06-15T09:29:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289756757.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289756757.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289756757.md) --- # Musk paints another "pie in the sky": SpaceX's revenue will exceed one trillion by 2030! Wall Street begins to recalculate this account Overall financial APP noted that Elon Musk stated on Sunday that his rocket company SpaceX (SPCX.US) could reach revenues of $1 trillion by 2030. Just two days before making this statement, the company had completed its IPO, with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion. In a reply to journalist and financial commentator Jon Erlichman on his social media platform X, he wrote, "I would be surprised if revenues in 2031 do not exceed $1 trillion." ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260615/1781513569565857.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Last Friday, SpaceX logically became the sixth largest company in the United States, further solidifying Musk's status as the world's first trillionaire. However, compared to tech giants like Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) with similar valuations, the company's profitability remains far behind. In 2025, SpaceX's revenue jumped from $14.02 billion the previous year to $18.67 billion, but the company's performance shifted from profit to loss, turning from a profit of $791 million to a net loss of $4.94 billion. ## Wall Street is no longer blindly "eating the cake" Some Wall Street analysts are cautious about the company's growth prospects. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that SpaceX's revenue would exceed $470 billion by 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected its revenue would reach nearly $330 billion. As the lead underwriter for SpaceX's IPO, Goldman Sachs presented a very aggressive forecast to potential investors during the roadshow. The bank expects SpaceX's AI business (including xAI) revenue to soar from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, with total group revenue increasing from $18.7 billion to $474 billion, of which Starlink would contribute about $144 billion. This means that revenue needs to grow 25 times over the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 90%. Morgan Stanley previously predicted that SpaceX's revenue would approach $330 billion by 2030, which, while far below Musk's target, is nearly 18 times the current scale. Morningstar's valuation is even more conservative, giving a corporate valuation of only $780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market value at IPO. The agency pointed out that the long-term prospects of the AI business still face the dual challenges of intense competition and profit uncertainty. ## From "cash cow" to "revenue engine" In the grand narrative of trillion-dollar revenue, Starlink satellite internet service is highly anticipated and has become SpaceX's most reliable financial pillar. In 2025, Starlink contributed $11.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 61% of SpaceX's total revenue. By the first quarter of 2026, this proportion had climbed to nearly two-thirds, with quarterly revenue reaching $3.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA profit margins maintained at a high level of 60%-70% As of April 2026, Starlink's global subscription users exceeded 17 million, more than doubling from 5 million at the end of 2024. Major airlines such as United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Hawaiian Airlines have adopted its in-flight WiFi service, and its brand valuation has entered the Brand Finance Global 500 for the first time. Starlink's business model has a unique appeal: once the satellite constellation is deployed, the marginal service cost is extremely low, and subscription revenue is highly predictable. Musk has estimated that if Starlink can capture 3%-5% of the global telecommunications market, annual revenue could reach $30 billion—ten times the historical peak of SpaceX's rocket launch business. SpaceX plans to deploy the next-generation V3 satellites via the Starship rocket in 2027, capable of launching 50 satellites at a time, increasing constellation expansion efficiency by more than seven times. However, there are also concerns. Starlink's global pricing varies significantly: the monthly fee is about $120 in the U.S., $41 in France, and only $24 in Zambia. As user growth shifts towards low GDP countries, ARPU (average revenue per user) may continue to be under pressure. The data showing a 76% increase in users but only a 53% increase in revenue in 2025 has confirmed this trend. ## "Money Burning Machine" In February 2026, SpaceX merged with Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI, with a transaction valuation of about $250 billion. This integration was packaged as a grand narrative of "space AI infrastructure"—utilizing Starlink's global satellite network for distributed AI computing, with xAI's Grok model forming a closed loop with X platform data. However, the financial reality is not optimistic. In 2025, SpaceX's net loss of $4.94 billion was primarily dragged down by investments in AI infrastructure. The total capital expenditure for the year was $20.7 billion, of which $12.7 billion flowed into the AI sector (GPU clusters, data centers, engineering talent), far exceeding Starlink's $4.2 billion and the rocket business's $3.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, AI-related capital expenditure reached as high as $7.7 billion, accounting for 76% of total expenditure. Critics have described xAI as a "clinically significant money-burning machine." The 18,700 bitcoins (fair value of $1.29 billion) held by SpaceX were prominently marked in the prospectus, suggesting that the company is diversifying investments to hedge against the uncertainties of the AI business. ## "Dimensionality Reduction Attack" from Equally Valued Giants Supporting a market value of $2 trillion, SpaceX's financial data appears quite "meager" compared to traditional tech giants of similar size. A financial comparison with Amazon and Broadcom reveals a significant valuation disparity. With a market value of around $2 trillion, Amazon generated over $600 billion in revenue in 2025, which is 32 times that of SpaceX ($18.67 billion). This means that Amazon's revenue for just a few days is equivalent to SpaceX's total for the entire year Amazon and Broadcom contribute hundreds of billions of dollars in net profit to shareholders every year. In contrast, SpaceX, while seeing revenue grow from $14.02 billion in 2025 by 33% to $18.67 billion, has experienced a "turn from profit to loss," plummeting from a profit of $791 million to a net loss of $4.94 billion. The massive losses at SpaceX are not due to its core business being unprofitable, but rather because of its staggering capital expenditures. In 2025, its total capital expenditure reached $20.7 billion, with nearly 76% allocated to AI infrastructure development. In the first quarter of 2026, its cash and cash equivalents dropped sharply from $24.7 billion to $15.9 billion in just three months, forcing the company to apply for a $20 billion bridge loan in March of this year. ## What is Musk "selling"? What supports SpaceX's extremely high valuation is not its current financial data, but a narrative of "options for humanity's future." Musk's goal of "trillion-dollar revenue by 2031" is a highly provocative target that will compel the company to continuously prove the speed of its commercialization in the coming years. However, rational observers should be wary of the divergence between valuation and fundamentals. In the next 24 months, the market will no longer be satisfied with hearing stories but will scrutinize every data point with a critical eye: Can Starship achieve true full-flow reuse? When will Starlink achieve sustainable profitability? And when will that massive AI infrastructure order worth hundreds of billions of dollars actually materialize? 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