SG Morning Brief | Nasdaq Jumps 3% on Iran Peace Rally, Dow Hits Record; Warsh FOMC Wednesday Night

US OvernightThe Nasdaq surged 3.07% to 26,683.94, its best day since March 31. The S&P 500 gained 1.65% to 7,554.29, and the Dow rose 468.77 points (+0.92%) to a record 51,671.03, also hitting a new intraday all-time high. The rally was broad and conviction-driven as Wall Street priced in the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced over the weekend. Oil tumbled further on expectations that Hormuz will reopen after the June 19 signing in Switzerland. SpaceX extended its post-IPO surge. The semiconductor sector led, with Western Digital, Micron, and AMD all posting outsized gains. Meta jumped nearly 5% as enterprise AI demand accelerated. Note: US markets are closed Friday June 19 for Juneteenth — the Iran deal signing happens while Wall Street is shut.Key MoversSpaceX (SPCX) +20% — SpaceX surged another 20% on its second trading day, extending the IPO momentum. The stock has now gained roughly 43% from its $135 IPO price in just two sessions. Nasdaq-100 and Russell index trackers are expected to buy $22-27 billion of SPCX in forced rebalancing later this month, providing a mechanical bid that could sustain the rally.Western Digital (WDC) +16% — Western Digital soared 16% to a new all-time high, leading all S&P 500 constituents. The move reflects the AI memory supercycle as NAND flash demand from data centers continues to outstrip supply. WDC has now roughly tripled year-to-date alongside peers Micron and SanDisk.Micron (MU) +10% / AMD (AMD) +7% — The chip recovery broadened as dip-buyers returned aggressively. Micron bounced 10%, continuing its volatile swings around the $1 trillion market cap level. AMD gained 7% as AI inference and agentic workload demand remains the structural growth driver. Meta rose 4.77%, rounding out a day where the entire AI infrastructure chain rallied.SGX PreviewThe STI was near 5,070 last week. DBS is near S$62.18 and UOB near S$37.91. The overnight Nasdaq +3% and Dow record provide a strongly positive backdrop for Singapore today. The Iran deal directly benefits Singapore through lower energy import costs and easing inflation. Banks continue to benefit from the higher-for-longer rate environment, though tomorrow's Warsh FOMC could shift that calculus if the new Chair signals rate cuts are back on the table given falling oil.Asia Pre-MarketDow futures were up 0.73%, S&P futures up nearly 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.6% heading into Monday's session (per Stocktwits). Asian markets rallied strongly on the Iran deal: Nikkei 225 hit a record above 69,000 and KOSPI surged 5%. Oil continues to ease as Hormuz reopening is priced in. The risk-on tone should carry into Tuesday's Asian session.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)May Retail Sales8:30 AM8:30 PMSpaceX options begin trading today.UpcomingDateTimeFOMC Rate DecisionWed Jun 172:00 PM ET / 2:00 AM SGT (Jun 18)Warsh Press ConferenceWed Jun 172:30 PM ET / 2:30 AM SGT (Jun 18)Iran Deal SigningFri Jun 19(US markets closed — Juneteenth)Event Spotlight: Warsh's First FOMC (Wednesday US / Thursday 2 AM SGT) — The most important Fed meeting of 2026. Singapore investors will see the result when they wake up Thursday morning. One week ago, rate hike odds were 75% with CPI at 4.2% and NFP at 172,000. But the Iran deal has changed the calculus overnight: oil crashing from $95 to $81 is fundamentally disinflationary, and if Hormuz reopens, headline CPI could decelerate sharply by Q3. Warsh now has cover to hold rates and signal patience. The market will parse every word of his first statement and press conference for hints on whether he views the inflation surge as transitory (driven by war) or structural. A dovish hold rallies the market further. Any hawkish surprise would be the biggest policy shock since the April 8-4 split.One More ThingThe Nasdaq gained 3% on a Monday — a rare occurrence driven entirely by a geopolitical catalyst, not an earnings beat. The market in 2026 is not trading fundamentals. It is trading war and peace. When Trump says "hit them very hard," the Dow drops 953 points. When he says "deal is now complete," the Nasdaq surges 3%. That pattern will not change until the Iran deal is signed, verified, and Hormuz is physically reopened. Friday's signing ceremony in Switzerland — while US markets are closed for Juneteenth — means investors will have an entire weekend to digest whether the peace holds before Monday's open. That is both a gift and a risk.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.