--- title: "This is as good as it gets for gas prices, new Goldman Sachs oil analysis suggests" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289929009.md" description: "Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent crude oil forecasts to $80/barrel for Q4 2026 and $75 for 2027, citing an anticipated peace deal in the Persian Gulf. However, these targets align with current market prices, suggesting limited impact on U.S. gas prices. The report highlights risks from supply recovery speed and geopolitical uncertainties, noting that while markets are flexible, a persistent disruption could push prices significantly higher." datetime: "2026-06-16T13:39:47.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289929009.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289929009.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289929009.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # This is as good as it gets for gas prices, new Goldman Sachs oil analysis suggests By Jules Rimmer Goldman forecasting $80 Brent by year-end, which is in line with current market pricing The announcement of an apparent agreement to end hostilities in the Persian Gulf, that the White House has said will be signed Friday, has prompted Goldman Sachs to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next. However, its new target is roughly in line with current market prices, suggesting that markets have mostly discounted the benefits of the peace deal. For the U.S. consumer this may mean gas prices may not fall that much from their elevated prices at present, given the close relationship between prices at the pump and oil. According to AAA, gas prices averaged just over $4 per gallon nationally on Tuesday. Goldman's commodity research team has reduced its predicted price for Brent (BRN00) in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $90 to $80, a cut of 11%, and shaved some 6% off the average price for 2027 from $80 to $75. That $75 target for next year is actually above the $73.53 price for the December contract (CLZ26). Goldman Sachs cuts its 4Q2026 Brent forecast from $90/barrel to $80 and its 2027 average price forecast from $80 to $75 The Goldman team, led by Daan Struyven, said in a note published late on Monday that it now expects exports through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize around pre-war levels at the end of July, rather than August, although, given the report acknowledges there are still risks to their assumption. In part this is owing to the trend of the last few months when President Trump made repeated claims to be on the cusp of a deal, only for negotiations to stutter and the crisis to continue. It's not just the political considerations and the fine details of any peace accord that may challenge Struyven's assumptions. There is a possibility that the supply recovery may be faster and stronger than currently anticipated. Flows from the Gulf are already at around 11 million barrels daily, owing to a gradual easing of traffic through the Strait and also redirections of oil, via land-based pipelines or fuel trucks travelling by road, for example. Exports from the Gulf proved to be more resilient than markets originally expected Moreover, producers like the Saudis and the UAE may boost production rapidly to meet the demand caused by low commercial stocks in Europe, Asia and America. Larger-than-expected production increases present downside risk to Goldman's oil-price assumptions. Upside risks are apparent also. Goldman points to a potential new-found risk aversion on behalf of shippers and insurers that may limit exports and production. Clearing the Strait of mines may also be a laborious and time-consuming exercise, and there are no guarantees that Iran won't threaten to close the Strait again if the negotiations with America begin to flounder. They predict major oil importers will probably adopt a policy of strategic stockpiling going forward, and the very large draws in inventory will take time to restore. Struyven makes an important point, though: this - the largest oil production shock in history - demonstrated how flexible oil markets have become, especially the ease with which China dealt with the crisis. Going forward, this may convince oil traders that a large security premium in the price of oil may not be altogether justified. The stakes for the putative peace agreement are immense, however, and underlined by Goldman's warning of how the oil price could perform, should the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The upside scenario would see Brent trade to $130 in late 2026 and average $105 in 2027. -Jules Rimmer This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 06-16-26 0939ET ### Related Stocks - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [BRNT.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRNT.UK.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Iran Is 'Doing Everything They Can to Drive Up' Oil Prices, Says Trump](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302765449.md) - [Oil Flat on Mideast Developments](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302582070.md) - [Oil prices rise, threatening to push cost of gas higher two weeks before midterms](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302434005.md) - [U.S. oil exports to Asia plunge as war disrupts shipping, lifting tanker rates to record high](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302792281.md) - [North Sea Crude-WTI trades higher as demand rises](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302592049.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**