---
title: "Elon Musk Wants To Make Humanity A 2 Planet Species, But His Odds Of Visiting Mars Aren't All That High If You Believe Prediction Market Bettors"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290007322.md"
description: "SpaceX has completed its IPO, with Elon Musk's Mars colonization goal tied to performance targets. However, prediction markets assign only a 13% probability to Musk visiting Mars in his lifetime. Additionally, bettors view a low likelihood of Starlink going public before June 2027."
datetime: "2026-06-17T05:28:34.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290007322.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290007322.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290007322.md)
---

# Elon Musk Wants To Make Humanity A 2 Planet Species, But His Odds Of Visiting Mars Aren't All That High If You Believe Prediction Market Bettors

**Elon Musk**'s **Space Exploration Technologies Corp.** (NASDAQ:SPCX) has completed its initial public offering (IPO) and now all eyes are on the company's next move.

## **Musk's Mars Ambitions**

One of Musk's goals has been to reach Mars, colonize it and build a city on it. This goal was also part of a performance target for the world's richest man, as revealed by SpaceX's IPO paperwork.

## **Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying**

While Musk has made reaching Mars one of his biggest goals, prediction markets are not very confident about the trillionaire being able to achieve it.

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $101,000 has been bet on the contract "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?"

According to bettors, the probability of Musk reaching Mars in his lifetime is just 13%.

**_Disclaimer:_** _Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement._

## **What Will Musk Get?**

If Musk is able to help SpaceX establish a permanent human settlement on Mars with at least one million residents, along with the company hitting a $7.5 trillion valuation, he stands to receive 200 million super-voting restricted shares.

The goal is still a long time away, with Musk himself admitting that it was a long way off.

In February, Musk revealed that SpaceX's Mars timeline was slipping by "five to seven years," so the company could focus on lunar missions first.

## **Prediction Market Bets On Starlink IPO**

Just days after SpaceX wrapped up its IPO, the prediction market is now betting on Starlink's IPO. Bettors have placed a very low probability on Starlink going public before June 2027.

**_Disclaimer_****:** _This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors._

_Photo courtesy: Shutterstock.com_

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