--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | All three major index futures rise as the largest \"Quadruple Witching Day\" in history arrives tonight" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290196056.md" description: "On June 18th, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures all rose. The market is facing the largest \"quadruple witching\" in history, with $8.3 trillion in options expiration triggering a systemic position reset; coupled with the mechanical selling pressure from pension funds' quarterly rebalancing, the market trend in the next two weeks may be dominated by trading mechanisms. In addition, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Christopher Waller, is drawing attention for reviewing the balance sheet and the tapering agenda" datetime: "2026-06-18T12:15:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290196056.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290196056.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290196056.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | All three major index futures rise as the largest "Quadruple Witching Day" in history arrives tonight ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of June 18 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.32%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.73%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.43%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260618/1781784478183292.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.07%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.98%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.11%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260618/1781784423542114.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 2.02%, priced at $75.24 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.38%, priced at $78.45 per barrel. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260618/1781784452857330.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **$8.3 trillion in options are about to "nuclear explode" at expiration! The largest "quadruple witching day" in history coincides with pension fund rebalancing, and U.S. stocks face a systemic position reset.** Rubina, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, stated that the U.S. stock market is entering one of the most critical technical position adjustment windows of the year. In the next two weeks, market movements will be driven more by trading mechanisms rather than fundamental factors. The first major technical event—the June "quadruple witching day"—is approaching. The current open interest in options has reached an all-time high, with 28% of all listed options expiring on that day, making it the largest options expiration event in history. Approximately $8.3 trillion in U.S. options exposure will be concentrated for clearing, which is 18% higher than the previous record of $7.1 trillion set last December. Such a large-scale options expiration will release a significant amount of gamma exposure, triggering a systemic reset of market positions. The second major technical event—the quarterly rebalancing—will follow. Rubina pointed out that many pension funds place great importance on quarterly asset allocation rebalancing operations. Currently, the funding adequacy ratio of the top 100 pension funds in the U.S. is as high as 110%, the highest level since 2001. Therefore, "we expect that many plans will continue to implement de-risking glide paths and portfolio immunization strategies, leading to mechanical stock sell-offs and fixed-income buying at the end of the month," he analyzed. **Wash's debut "sword unsheathed": Establishing a special group to review a $6.7 trillion balance sheet, speculation arises over the Fed's "balance sheet reduction" agenda.** Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Wash made his debut on Wednesday, stating that a special working group will be established to review the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet. This is the first step he has taken to address this long-criticized policy issue Wash stated at a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Wednesday that one of the independent working groups he is forming will "assess the benefits and risks under the current ample reserves regime and examine the composition of the balance sheet." **Federal Reserve Dot Plot "Hawkish Reversal": Half of Officials Expect Rate Hikes This Year, Inflation Forecasts Raised.** At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials voted to keep interest rates unchanged but hinted that the likelihood of rate hikes this year is increasing. The latest dot plot shows that nine officials expect at least a 25 basis point rate hike this year, with six expecting at least two hikes. Another nine officials expect no changes or a rate cut. This marks a significant change compared to the March dot plot, where no one predicted a rate hike this year. Meanwhile, Wash downplayed his colleagues' forecasts. The new Federal Reserve Chair has been critical of the so-called "forward guidance" and stated that he refuses to submit interest rate predictions. **Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged but Expands Hawkish Camp, Policy Statement Retains Action Options.** The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% during the June meeting, in line with market expectations, but the voting results showed an increase in internal hawkish forces. In this meeting, in addition to Chief Economist Pill, Monetary Policy Committee member Green also joined the camp supporting a rate hike, with both voting for a 25 basis point increase, whereas only Pill supported a hike in the April meeting. The policy guidance conveyed in the statement remained unchanged, with the Bank of England reiterating its "readiness to act as necessary" to curb inflation pressures, retaining policy flexibility. Although the recent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is expected to lower energy prices, the central bank remains vigilant about inflation risks, indicating that maintaining the current interest rate does not imply neglect of inflation pressures, and it will respond quickly if subsequent data shows the need. The increase in the number of hawkish votes indicates that even if the majority of committee members choose to wait and see, the decision-making balance is gradually tilting towards tightening, and the future interest rate path will depend on actual inflation data and the extent to which geopolitical developments affect energy prices. **Intervention Effect "Completely Zeroed"! Yen Approaches 161, Retracing Gains After Intervention, Japanese Government Signals "Ready to Act".** Japan's top government spokesperson stated on Thursday that authorities are ready to respond appropriately to exchange rate fluctuations at any time. As the yen weakens again, the market is closely watching whether the Bank of Japan will intervene again to support the persistently pressured currency. When asked about the yen's decline, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno stated at a regular press conference, "We are prepared to respond appropriately to the foreign exchange market as necessary." He also noted that while yen depreciation helps manufacturing exports and boosts corporate profits, it increases the burden on businesses and households by raising import costs, and the government needs to "comprehensively examine" these impacts, emphasizing that it will closely monitor market dynamics. This statement comes as the dollar strengthens across the board. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move are leaning towards a rate hike rather than a cut, pushing the dollar higher and putting downward pressure on the yen. On Wednesday, the yen fell to 160.795 against the dollar, hitting a nearly two-year low, completely retracing all gains recorded after the Japanese authorities' intervention on April 30. On Thursday, the yen traded around 160.76 **U.S. gasoline prices fall below $4! Expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz are impacting the Fed's hawkish narrative.** U.S. gasoline prices have fallen below the $4 per gallon mark for the first time since March, providing welcome relief to American consumers who have been affected by high energy inflation this year, following an unprecedented global energy supply disruption caused by a new round of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Generally, a decline in gasoline prices quickly lowers overall inflation, improves cash flow for low-income households, and releases some discretionary spending capacity. For Federal Reserve policymakers, if gasoline prices continue to decline, it will reduce the tail risks associated with "re-inflation shocks," potentially rekindling market expectations for a Fed rate cut after several months. ## Individual Stock News **Wall Street collectively bullish on Micron (MU.US), with target prices as high as $1500.** Wall Street is experiencing a wave of optimism for Micron Technology, which is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, with major institutions raising their target stock prices. Deutsche Bank raised its target price for Micron from $1000 to $1500, believing that as AI services become more widespread, the demand for memory will explode, with DRAM demand growth in the coming years far exceeding supply growth. Citigroup significantly raised its target price for Micron from $840 to $1200, predicting that the average selling price of DRAM could rise by as much as 200% this year. Additionally, investment bank Stifel raised its target price for Micron from $550 to $1500, while Wedbush raised its target price from $550 to $1300. **AI "sucking dry" memory chip capacity! Apple's (AAPL.US) profit moat is breached, iPhone Pro prices may rise by $270.** According to reports on Wednesday, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated in an interview that to hedge against the ongoing rise in memory and storage chip costs, the company will raise prices on some products. Cook did not specify which product lines would be affected or the potential price increase, nor did he provide a clear timeline for the price hikes. Research firm TechInsights estimates that the manufacturing cost of the next-generation iPhone Pro could increase by approximately $270 as a result. **Trump personally "announces": Apple will partner with Intel (INTC.US) to manufacture chips in the U.S., securing a key order for 18A process.** U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that Apple has agreed to collaborate with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the United States. The partnership with Intel will help Apple diversify its manufacturing base while seeking additional chip capacity. The iPhone manufacturer heavily relies on TSMC (TSM.US), which is currently facing enormous demand from AI chip manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD (AMD.US). **Broadcom (AVGO.US) "standing in the light" solidifies cash flow base with $3 billion debt buyback, reinforcing the logic of the "optical interconnect + AI ASIC" computing bull market.** \*\* One of the big winners in the global AI boom, Broadcom, announced on Thursday local time that its cash tender offer has expired and released the final results. This cash tender offer aimed to purchase the outstanding senior notes of six important series. The chip giant, focused on AI computing infrastructure, also announced a significant increase in the total purchase value (excluding accrued interest payments) from the previously announced $2.5 billion to $3 billion. The latest $3 billion note acquisition is equivalent to cleaning up some long-term debt, optimizing duration and credit curve without sacrificing growth investments, and retaining strong financial flexibility for subsequent investments in AI ASICs, Ethernet switch core chips, optical interconnect systems, and advanced packaging. **Targeting the lifeblood of AI memory! Netlist (NLST.US) upgrades its patent battle against Samsung, HBM and DDR5 may face U.S. import ban.** The U.S. memory technology company Netlist announced on Wednesday that it has filed new patent infringement lawsuits against Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) in the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) and the Federal District Court for the Eastern District of Texas. The lawsuit involves two U.S. patents of Netlist—No. 12,646,537 and No. 12,650,937, corresponding to Samsung's high bandwidth memory (HBM) products and DDR5 RDIMM and MRDIMM memory modules. Netlist's complaint in the ITC also lists Google (GOOGL.US), Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), and Broadcom (AVGO.US) as additional defendants. This means that the patent battle has expanded from a direct confrontation between Netlist and Samsung to the entire AI hardware supply chain. **Rumble (RUM.US) acquires Northern Data, betting on AI infrastructure with 250 megawatts of computing power.** Video platform Rumble has completed its acquisition of Northern Data AG, officially entering the cloud and AI infrastructure field. After the transaction, Rumble holds approximately 85% of Northern Data's shares and plans to rename itself Rum Group, with two major business units: the video platform Rumble and the cloud/AI infrastructure business Quake AI (formerly Northern Data). The latter brings about 250 megawatts of energy and data center assets, allowing Rumble to enter the AI computing service, electricity, and data center markets, while empowering platform advertisers, users, and creators with AI. As a result, Rumble's pre-market shares rose by about 17%. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts Beijing time 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. Beijing time the next day 04:00: U.S. net foreign purchases of long-term securities in April. 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