--- title: "Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | The Federal Reserve meeting signals interest rate hikes, and Old Deng stocks collectively fall to embrace AI" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290197455.md" description: "Overnight U.S. stocks fell, and Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed down 1.59%. The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume, but the market declined due to the early release of positive news and uncertainty about subsequent implementation. The focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, where the dot plot released hawkish signals, with 9 members predicting at least a 25 basis point rate hike by 2026, shifting the policy focus to inflation control" datetime: "2026-06-18T12:25:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290197455.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290197455.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290197455.md) --- # Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | The Federal Reserve meeting signals interest rate hikes, and Old Deng stocks collectively fall to embrace AI **\[Market Dissection\]** Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, each dropping more than 1%. The Hong Kong stock market couldn't escape this trend, opening lower today and closing down 1.59%. The U.S. and Iran have finally signed an agreement. According to media reports, the U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian president also completed the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum through a "digital signature." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions will begin within 60 days from the memorandum's effective date. Next, there will be a direct ceasefire in the Middle East, reducing the risk of full-scale conflict; however, localized conflicts between Israel and Lebanon may reignite, but the U.S. and Iran are unlikely to participate directly. Most importantly, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, with the U.S. lifting maritime blockades within 30 days, restoring normal passage on a major global oil transport route that accounts for 20% of global oil shipments. The specifics of how this will be implemented remain to be seen. Additionally, Iran's oil will legally return to the global market, with phased exemptions from sanctions, which will alleviate inflationary pressures. In this agreement, Trump specifically thanked China for taking a neutral stance and helping to facilitate the agreement, which is indeed true. Logically, signing the agreement should be a significant positive, and the stock market should rise, but the Hong Kong stock market instead fell sharply. The reason is that the positive effects of the U.S.-Iran agreement had already been priced in, and the subsequent implementation remains shrouded in uncertainty; no one knows if Trump will change his mind, and the details are still unclear—this is merely a framework agreement. Moreover, the market's focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting, where no surprises are expected. The core highlight of this meeting is the dot plot, which has released a very strong hawkish signal: a total of 9 FOMC members predict at least a 25 basis point rate hike by 2026, with 6 members expecting a minimum increase of 50 basis points for the entire year. This indicates a shift in the FOMC members' views: the policy focus has completely shifted from the labor market to inflation issues. This is also why Trump wanted to quickly reach an agreement; if inflation doesn't decrease and interest rates remain high, the U.S. will pay trillions in interest each year. Given last year's fiscal revenue of only $5.23 trillion, nearly 20% would go to interest payments, which is alarming. Therefore, controlling oil prices, reducing inflation, and lowering interest rates are essential. Institutions expect the core personal consumption expenditures price index to rise by 3.3% this year, significantly higher than the 2.7% predicted in March. This means that inflation is unlikely to show a significant decline in the short term, with the latest core inflation reading exactly at 3.3%. Other changes from the meeting will not be commented on due to space constraints. In summary, the market is currently anxious about the interest rate hike, which makes insurance stocks uncomfortable, as equity returns may be affected. Today, China Pacific Insurance (02601) fell over 7%, and real estate stocks are also heavily impacted, with Sunac China (01918) and China Resources Land (01109) both dropping over 7%. Domestic bank stocks are also dragged down, with interest margins widening, but HSBC (00005) is benefiting from the USD/HKD route. The aforementioned stocks have collectively declined, leading funds to naturally shift to technology stocks. The fundamentals continue to catalyze: the global AI capital expenditure ceiling is constantly rising. Bank of America expects global AI capital expenditures to reach $1.7 trillion by 2030, with China accounting for about $330 billion. Additionally, since mid to late June, the market has entered a period of concentrated earnings forecasts, with sectors like memory chips, optical modules/PCBs generally experiencing significant growth, forcing funds to move in this direction Core varieties Huahong Hongli (01347) and Cambridge Technology (06166) rose over 5%. The market has also provided answers, with Cambrian (688256.SH) soaring over 14%, stock price exceeding 1500 yuan/share, Lianxun Instruments (688808.SH) stock price surpassing 2400 yuan/share, Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH) rising over 5%, with an intraday high exceeding 1700 yuan/share, and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) rising over 7%, with a stock price exceeding 1300 yuan/share. The aforementioned four high-priced stocks have all reached new highs after adjustment. In contrast, the former stock king Moutai (600519.SH) continues to decline, currently priced at 1215 yuan. They have all been surpassed by technology stocks, which reflects the current situation. According to ComputerBase's price tracking data for the three major storage categories: memory, HDD, and SSD, the current storage shortage crisis is far from over. HDD prices surged significantly in mid-June, and prices for memory and SSDs are also rising. Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) rose over 11%. Lanke Technology (06809) and Cambridge Technology (06166) both rose over 5%. Industry insiders say that ByteDance is discussing the procurement of at least 50,000 AI chips from TianShu ZhiXin (09903), mainly for inference work. If the deal is reached, TianShu ZhiXin will become ByteDance's third GPU supplier after Huawei and Cambrian. If this batch of orders is secured, revenue is expected to increase by more than 40%, with a surge of over 15% today. The concept stock of large models, Zhipu (02513), saw a strong market reaction after its open-source yesterday, rising again by over 26% today, reaching a historical high with a market value exceeding 900 billion Hong Kong dollars; Birun Technology (06082), as a leading provider of general intelligent computing solutions in China, has completed the adaptation and tuning of Zhipu's new generation flagship model GLM-5.2, and has also achieved "Day0" level adaptation with several leading large models such as the JieYue XingChen Step series, MiniMaxM series, DeepSeek-V series, Tencent's Hunyuan series, Moon's Dark Side Kimi series, and Alibaba's Qianwen Qwen series. Today it rose nearly 9%. MiniMax (00100) has officially signed a contract with CITIC Securities to promote A-share IPO guidance work, rising over 12%. According to data from the China Rare Earth Industry Association, global demand for high-end MLCCs is expected to increase significantly year-on-year by 2026, continuously consuming heavy rare earth inventories. Rare earths are transitioning from a "permanent magnet single-engine" to a "permanent magnet + MLCC dual-drive" model, and Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) will continue to benefit. Jiangxi Copper (00358) is favored in the market for its copper foil segment valuation, rising over 9% today. The scope of the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board will be expanded to the artificial intelligence large model industry, and it will clearly support the listing of more "hard technology" track enterprises such as quantum technology, biological manufacturing, and embodied intelligence. In the field of robotics, currently, the largest scenario for robots is still industrial robots, as this scenario has relatively low requirements but saves labor costs. The leader is undoubtedly Estun (02715). According to data released by MIR Rui Industrial, in 2025, the company's industrial robot shipments in China will surpass foreign brands for the first time, ranking first in the Chinese market; In the first quarter of this year, the company's market share of industrial robots further increased year-on-year, ranking first in China's robot market in terms of shipment volume. The all-new generation iER series intelligent industrial robots have strong competitiveness, rising over 12% today. The previously strong Xidi Zhijia (03881) has more good news: it has officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the wholly-owned subsidiary of China General Technology Group, General Consulting. This cooperation marks a new stage of deepening collaboration between artificial intelligence companies and central enterprise industrial platforms. Combined with the easing situation in the Middle East, this stock saw a sudden influx of funds in the afternoon, followed by a slight pullback, rising over 2%. There are also movements in the biopharmaceutical sector, mainly due to policy support and generally good performance, as well as being at the bottom. The strong performers are core CXO varieties, such as Zhaoyan New Drug (06127), Kailaiying (06821), and WuXi AppTec (02359), all rising over 5%. **【Sector Focus】** Domestic computing power chips are experiencing a resonant upward trend, with optimistic expectations for Cambrian and Haiguang in Q2. Currently, Cambrian's Q2 revenue is expected to be around 4.5 billion, with a profit of around 1.5 billion; Haiguang's Q2 revenue is expected to be around 5.5 billion, with a profit of around 1 billion. The clarity of domestic computing power order expectations has significantly increased, the supply chain stocking pace has accelerated, and the financial reports of related companies have significantly improved, with expectations further strengthened in the second half of the year. Under the rigid constraints of supply and demand this year, domestic computing power has a high priority for deliverability and implementation. As domestic advanced process capacity gradually ramps up, design companies with customer orders and priority allocation of capacity are expected to benefit first. We are optimistic about the domestic computing power industry chain, from the scarce advanced process capabilities to the blooming design companies, and super nodes will all welcome opportunities for volume growth. Main varieties in Hong Kong stocks: Tianneng Zhixin (09903), Biran Technology (06082). **【Stock Picking】** **Cambridge Technology (06166): 1.6T silicon photonic modules are being shipped in bulk, supported by large framework orders for high annual growth** Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2025 to 2028, the global AI optical module PCB market size will increase from $620 million to $3.77 billion, growing more than five times in three years. Shenzhen has issued documents to promote the upgrade of optical modules to 1.6T and 3.2T, focusing on the development of silicon photonics, CPO, and other packaging technologies. **Commentary:** The higher the rate of optical modules, the more expensive the circuit boards: a 400G optical module circuit board costs about $55, an 800G rises to $70-80, and a 1.6T adds another $20-30. The company's profitability continues to optimize, and the gross profit margin upward channel has opened. The gross profit margin for optical modules in the first quarter was 32.8%, and institutions predict that the overall gross profit margin will exceed 30% for the entire year of 2026; for every 10% increase in the proportion of 1.6T, the overall gross profit margin increases by 1 percentage point. The company is one of the few in China to achieve large-scale supply of 800G/1.6T silicon photonics, with self-research and mass production throughout the entire process. Core business highlights: The company's 800G optical module shipments account for more than half of optical module revenue, with a gross profit margin of 28%-32%, far higher than low-speed products of 400G and below; compatible with NVIDIA GB200/H200 servers, with a shipment target of over 3 million units for the entire year of 2026, maintaining a price range of $380–400 premium. The 1.6T optical module will start large-scale bulk shipments in Q1 2026, equipped with a 3nm DSP silicon photonic solution; Single gross margin rate of over 35%+, unit bandwidth cost down by 50%; NVIDIA, Meta, and Microsoft simultaneously import, accounting for 45% of optical module revenue in Q1, with penetration rate expected to exceed 60% in the second half of the year. Advanced technology reserves of 3.2T/6.4TNPO/CPO prototype landing, aimed at ultra-large-scale AI clusters after 2027; the long-distance 1.6T solution seizes the incremental market for data center interconnection, a rare layout among peers. The company's high-end 800G/1.6T shipment proportion increases, silicon photonics cost reduction, and overseas high-margin orders ramping up create a triple resonance, continuously releasing profit space through scale effects. Sufficient orders on hand, Cisco is the core supplier for 800G, with a market share of about 60%, and orders are evenly distributed, corresponding to an annual revenue range of 7-8 billion. Meta is the largest new variable for performance in the second half of 2026, with capacity reserved in advance. Annual 800G shipments are expected to be 600,000 to 700,000; long-term framework for 1 million units in 2027, with 1.6T supporting simultaneous orders, plus 300,000 sets of DCOM optical modems with stable orders, generating about 900 million in revenue. The company supplies 800G silicon photonics in bulk to Microsoft, with additional orders exceeding 300 million in 2026; the 1.6T framework agreement has been established, with continuous additional orders as AI server production expands. NVIDIA: GB200/GB300 servers continue to restock with 800G; 1.6T silicon photonic modules have passed system certification, with small batch deliveries starting in Q2. A total of 2.8 to 3.3 million high-speed optical modules will be delivered, with a production capacity limit of 5 million units/year, full orders, and capacity ramping up as needed. The company's Malaysia factory exclusively supplies Meta and Cisco's overseas orders; the Mexico factory will start production in Q2 2026, reaching full production of 1 million units by the end of the year, accommodating new overseas orders in 2027. The company's large framework orders on hand support high growth for the entire year, with further profit elasticity expected after the 1.6T ramp-up in the second half of the year; in the medium to long term, it will benefit from the global AI computing power upgrade and the iteration of next-generation optoelectronic packaging technology, with strong growth certainty ### Related Stocks - [02601.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02601.HK.md) - [601601.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601601.CN.md) - [01918.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01918.HK.md) - [01109.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01109.HK.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00005.HK.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [01347.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01347.HK.md) - [688347.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688347.CN.md) - [06166.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06166.HK.md) - [603083.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603083.CN.md) - [688256.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688256.CN.md) - [688808.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688808.CN.md) - [688498.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688498.CN.md) - [300308.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300308.CN.md) - [600519.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600519.CN.md) - [03986.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03986.HK.md) - [603986.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603986.CN.md) - [06809.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06809.HK.md) - [688008.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688008.CN.md) - [06082.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06082.HK.md) - [06030.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06030.HK.md) - [600030.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600030.CN.md) - [06680.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06680.HK.md) - [300748.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300748.CN.md) - [00358.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00358.HK.md) - [600362.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600362.CN.md) - [002715.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002715.CN.md) - [03881.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03881.HK.md) - [06127.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06127.HK.md) - [603127.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603127.CN.md) - [06821.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06821.HK.md) - [002821.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002821.CN.md) - [02359.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02359.HK.md) - [603259.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603259.CN.md) - [688041.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688041.CN.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [CSCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CSCO.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DTIW.SG.md) - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBA.UK.md) - [02911.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02911.HK.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) - [89988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/89988.HK.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [HBBD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Fed’s Warsh still expects a rate hike this year, says former vice chair Roger Ferguson](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290298401.md) - [Hysteresis May Set Up A September Hike; Citadel Securities](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290078806.md) - [I built an AI tool that negotiated hotel prices for me. 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