---
title: "Wall Street gold bulls collectively cut their expectations! Following Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank has lowered its target price by up to 32%"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290529036.md"
description: "Affected by cautious prospects of U.S. monetary policy and sluggish investment demand, Deutsche Bank has significantly lowered its gold price target, with a maximum reduction of 32%, predicting it to reach $4,800 in the fourth quarter. This move follows Goldman Sachs' previous downward revision, reflecting Wall Street's cooling bullish sentiment towards gold and concerns over a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy logic"
datetime: "2026-06-23T07:54:00.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290529036.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290529036.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290529036.md)
---

# Wall Street gold bulls collectively cut their expectations! Following Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank has lowered its target price by up to 32%

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as investors become increasingly cautious about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, coupled with persistently weak demand for gold investments, international investment banks have recently launched a new wave of downward revisions to gold price expectations. Following Goldman Sachs' significant cut to its gold price target last week, Deutsche Bank has drastically lowered its gold price forecast by as much as 32% in its latest report. This substantial adjustment not only marks a significant cooling of bullish sentiment towards gold on Wall Street but also reflects a dramatic shift in the macroeconomic policy logic under the new management of the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank's "violent cut": from 5600 to 4800, a maximum reduction of 32%

The magnitude of Deutsche Bank's adjustment is extremely rare in recent years. **According to a report released by the bank's research analyst Michael Hsueh, the gold price forecast for the third quarter has been cut by more than one-fifth to $4,300 per ounce, while the target price for the fourth quarter has been reduced by 17% to $4,800.**

Although the revised target prices are still above the current level of about $4,140, indicating that the bank still expects gold prices to continue rising from the current position, the bullish momentum has "significantly weakened." Hsueh explicitly pointed out in the report that the two core factors driving gold prices lower are: the repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path and the resilience shown in U.S. macroeconomic data.

**Even more concerning is the quantification of downside risks. Hsueh further warned that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates three to four times, gold prices could fall to around $3,800 per ounce—this means a potential decline of up to 32% from the historical high of $5,600 at the end of January.**

Goldman Sachs' "big bull" rarely wavers: a $500 cut

Deutsche Bank's follow-up is not an isolated event. Just a week ago, Wall Street's most steadfast and vocal gold "big bull," Goldman Sachs, was the first to "flip." **Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its gold price target for the end of 2026 from $5,400 per ounce to $4,900 per ounce, a reduction of $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven clearly outlined two reasons for the downgrade:**

First, the expectation of interest rate cuts has completely evaporated. Goldman Sachs economists have pushed back the last two expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to June and December 2027, meaning there will be no rate cuts in 2026. The previously widely anticipated "rate cuts within the year" path has been completely overturned.

Second, the "hawkish debut" of new Federal Reserve Chairman Waller has changed market logic. The first FOMC meeting chaired by Waller released "unexpectedly hawkish" signals, significantly alleviating market concerns about the independence of the central bank, making the demand for gold as a macro policy hedge tool unlikely to rebound as expected.

**Although Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive long-term view on gold, it has clearly characterized its recent strategy as "tactical caution" and warned that if the Federal Reserve implements two rate hikes this fall, gold prices could further drop to $4,440 by the end of the year.** Citigroup's "Reversal" and the Divergence on Wall Street

It is noteworthy that not all institutions are uniformly bearish. Citigroup's attitude has shifted most dramatically—on June 12, it lowered its three-month target price to $4,000, but just four days later, it quickly reversed course and raised it to $4,500, believing that the previous decline was a "price reset" rather than the end of a bull market, and maintained a bullish forecast of $5,000 for the next 6 to 12 months.

Bank of America acknowledged that gold prices are unlikely to reach the $6,000 target in the short term, but still believes that the high U.S. fiscal deficit and lack of fiscal consolidation will support gold's long-term upward trend. JP Morgan maintains its forecast of $6,000 by the end of 2026 and an average price of $6,263 in 2027.

However, the consensus among most institutions regarding the short-term outlook has become increasingly aligned. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that if ETF inflows do not see a substantial rebound, gold will struggle to achieve the bullish target of $5,200 in the second half of 2026. UBS strategist Joni Teves noted, "The downside risks to our view have significantly increased."

Walsh's "Hawkish Debut": The Dot Plot Disrupts the Rate Cut Narrative

The core driving force behind this round of gold selling comes from the "unexpectedly hawkish" signals released during the Federal Reserve's June meeting. In the early hours of June 18, Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, behind the "wait-and-see" operation, the dot plot released a disruptive signal—nine members expect at least one rate hike in 2026, while only one member anticipates a rate cut. The median expectation for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, implying a 25 basis point rate hike within the year.

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh clearly stated at the post-meeting press conference that the committee is "united in its commitment to achieving price stability and a 2% inflation target." The resolution statement removed the "easing bias" that hinted at possible future rate cuts and added the statement that "productivity growth and capital investment remain strong." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once this year.

Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of "DoubleLine Capital" and known as the "new bond king," stated that Walsh is "clearly sending a signal to the market: the current top priority is to restore price stability, not to initiate a new round of easing."

The Federal Reserve also significantly raised its inflation expectations for 2026 from 2.7% to 3.6%, while slightly lowering its GDP growth forecast to 2.2%. Deutsche Bank further raised its inflation expectations for the U.S. in its latest research report, predicting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the rate to 4.1%, with a potential rate hike as early as July ETF "bleeding" and central banks "supporting": The divided narrative of the gold market

In this price adjustment driven by policy expectations, the gold market is showing a rare pattern of capital division. On one side is the accelerated withdrawal of investors. Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for the fifth consecutive week, with a weekly outflow reaching $4.27 billion, a new high for the year, including $1.5 billion withdrawn by U.S. investors. In May, global physical gold ETFs turned to a net outflow of approximately $2 billion, with total holdings dropping to 4,121 tons. Deutsche Bank clearly pointed out that the continued selling of gold ETFs indicates that this traditionally supportive factor for gold prices is "significantly missing."

The outflow in the domestic market is equally alarming. Since the second quarter, the scale of gold ETFs has decreased by more than 37 billion yuan. As of June 11, the top four gold ETFs have collectively reduced by nearly 40 billion yuan compared to the end of the first quarter, with the Huashan Gold ETF's scale falling below the 100 billion yuan mark. Additionally, as one of the world's major gold-consuming countries, China's onshore gold prices have recently shown a discount compared to the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) prices, indicating that the current price level makes it difficult for Asian physical import demand to provide effective support for international gold prices.

On the other hand, there is the central bank's firm "support." The World Gold Council's "2026 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey," released on June 16, shows that among 74 surveyed central banks, 45% plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest proportion since the survey began in 2018. 89% of respondents believe that the total amount of global central bank gold reserves will continue to increase in the coming year. About 53% of central banks in emerging markets and developing economies expect to increase their gold holdings.

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 19 consecutive months, adding 320,000 ounces in May, a new high for the year. Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will continue to purchase gold at a rate of 50 tons per month in 2026. Deutsche Bank also views central bank demand as the "only remaining pillar" of the current market.

ETF investors are retreating, while central banks are entering—the divergence between short-term speculative funds and long-term strategic funds is reshaping the competitive landscape of the gold market.

The outlook for gold prices amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears

Currently, spot gold is hovering in the key range of $4,100 to $4,140. Technically, the trend low of $4,023 in 2026 is the next important defense line; if this level is breached, it will expose the long-term upward trend line near $4,000—this area has always been the support foundation for gold's years of upward trend In the short term, the pressure on gold has not yet been fully released. The situation in the Middle East remains an important variable—although the U.S. and Iran suddenly announced an agreement in the early hours of the 22nd, the Iranian foreign minister wrote on social media: "The first real test: the Lebanon conflict elimination group." The ebb and flow of geopolitical risks will continue to influence short-term fluctuations in gold prices.

Meanwhile, this week, the U.S. PCE inflation data and GDP data are about to be released. If the data is on the hotter side, it will further strengthen the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve, and gold prices may face a new round of selling pressure.

From a medium to long-term perspective, global central bank gold purchases remain the most stable supporting force for gold demand. As one analyst stated, gold, as a non-sovereign credit asset, does not rely on the credit backing of any single country. However, this long-term logic is difficult to offset in the short term against the triple pressure of a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and interest rate hike expectations.

From the historical peak of $5,600 to the tug-of-war at $4,100, the gold market has experienced a complete bull-bear transition in just five months. When Wall Street's "big bulls" begin to collectively lower their expectations, when the hawkish statements from Waller completely overturn the rate cut narrative, and when ETF funds have fled for five consecutive weeks—has the foundation of the gold bull market begun to weaken? The answer may not lie in any investment bank's predictive model, but in a more fundamental variable: how high the Federal Reserve's interest rate path will stay and for how long

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