--- title: "The US Dollar Index hits a 13-month high! Shanghai gold and copper fell over 2%, Zijin Mining dropped more than 6%, and the non-ferrous ETF China Universal (159652) fell over 3%! AI incremental demand vs. short-term strong dollar, how to view the non-ferrous market outlook?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290791736.md" description: "The US Dollar Index hits a 13-month high, with Shanghai gold and copper falling over 2%, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector such as Zijin Mining. In the short term, a strong dollar suppresses valuations, but in the long term, the incremental demand from AI supports a positive trend for metals like copper and aluminum" datetime: "2026-06-25T07:14:07.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290791736.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290791736.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290791736.md) --- # The US Dollar Index hits a 13-month high! Shanghai gold and copper fell over 2%, Zijin Mining dropped more than 6%, and the non-ferrous ETF China Universal (159652) fell over 3%! AI incremental demand vs. short-term strong dollar, how to view the non-ferrous market outlook? On June 25, the A-share market fluctuated upward, with both Shanghai gold and Shanghai copper falling over 2%, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. As of 14:39, the high "gold and copper content" non-ferrous ETF, China Universal (159652), dropped over 3%, with the latest financing balance exceeding 60 million yuan, rising to a high point since April from the bottom. The constituent stocks of the index for the non-ferrous ETF, China Universal (159652), mostly retreated, while the AI-related small metals sector surged against the trend, with Yunnan Tin Industry rising over 5% and Xiamen Tungsten rising over 3%. Copper mining stocks faced pressure, with Zijin Mining falling over 6%, Luoyang Molybdenum falling over 5%, and Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium also retreating. 【Top ten constituent stocks of the index for non-ferrous ETF, China Universal (159652)】 On the macro front, the geopolitical situation is generally moving towards easing, with WTI crude oil prices rapidly declining, now falling below the $70 mark. Coupled with the resilience of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, and the actual yield on U.S. Treasuries rising to an absolute high for the year, the U.S. dollar index performed strongly, reaching a high of 101.8 on June 24, setting a new 13-month high, which suppresses the valuation of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars. In the short term, **the strong dollar and rising interest rate expectations** keep precious metals in a weak oscillation and suppress the "financial attributes" of base metals. Additionally, the easing of geopolitical tensions brings about a decline in inflation, and the actual interest rate is on an upward trend, further suppressing the pricing of zero-yield assets. In the long term, the **supply constraints of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, along with the demand resilience brought by AI, new energy, and grid investment, remain**. Valuations/positions are at low levels, providing "post-liquidity shock" recovery allocation value! Especially the **incremental demand under the AI wave supports the long-term positive trend of various segmented metals!** **【The AI wave is surging, pay attention to the incremental demand for non-ferrous metals】** **Copper: The core material for hardware under the AI computing infrastructure wave** For copper, Huaxi Securities points out that **under the AI computing infrastructure wave, the demand logic for copper is expanding from traditional electrical metals to the core material for AI hardware.** 1) The speed of AI servers, switches, and high-speed network devices continues to increase, and copper cables, with their advantages of low cost, low power consumption, and low latency, still play an important role in short-distance high-speed interconnections, cabinet interconnections, server backplanes, and high-speed connection scenarios. 2) The demand for high-performance copper foil is increasing for high-frequency high-speed PCBs, AI accelerator cards, and switch motherboards, with low-profile, high-ductility, and high-reliability copper foil becoming key materials for high-speed signal transmission 3) The increase in power density of AI servers drives the demand for power supply copper busbars, connector copper alloys, liquid cooling plates, heat dissipation modules, and copper materials for power systems, upgrading copper from a "quantity logic" to a dual logic of "quantity + material added value." **Aluminum: An important material for AI chips, being repriced** For aluminum, **AI servers are transitioning from single-machine performance iterations to ultra-large-scale computing clusters, with rapid increases in chip power consumption, cabinet power density, and power supply complexity, leading to a repricing of the AI material attributes in the aluminum supply chain.** 1) Aluminum nitride has high thermal conductivity, insulation, and low thermal expansion coefficient, making it suitable for AI chips, power devices, high-power modules, ceramic substrates, and packaging heat dissipation scenarios. As AI chip power consumption increases, the demand for high thermal conductivity packaging materials and heat dissipation substrates is expected to continue growing. 2) The power architecture of AI servers is evolving towards 48V/54V and even higher voltages, increasing the requirements for ripple resistance, long life, and high reliability of aluminum electrolytic capacitors in UPS, power modules, liquid cooling power distribution systems, and high-power conversion links, driving growth in high-end aluminum capacitors and upstream electronic aluminum foil and electrode foil demand. 3) Liquid cooling plates, heat dissipation structural components, server chassis, and power busbars will also drive demand for high-strength, high-conductivity aluminum materials. From an investment perspective, aluminum is not only elastic in terms of electrolytic aluminum commodity prices but also part of the upgrade chain for AI power supply, heat dissipation, and electronic materials. **Molybdenum: The market begins to reassess molybdenum's high-end material attributes in AI computing infrastructure.** Molybdenum has high melting points, high strength, high-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and low thermal expansion characteristics, primarily reflecting three incremental logics in the AI hardware supply chain. First, the significant increase in AI chip power consumption raises the demand for high thermal conductivity, low expansion materials such as molybdenum-copper heat sinks, molybdenum-copper composites, and molybdenum target materials in advanced packaging, high-power modules, and server heat dissipation systems, as molybdenum-copper materials can match the thermal expansion coefficients of chips, ceramic substrates, and packaging structures. Second, the demand for molybdenum-containing stainless steel, special steel, and high-temperature alloys is increasing in AI data center power systems, liquid cooling systems, nuclear energy support, gas turbines, and high-end equipment, raising the value of molybdenum as a corrosion-resistant and heat-resistant alloying element. Third, in the semiconductor and display fields, molybdenum target materials, molybdenum films, and molybdenum powders have high added value in advanced manufacturing. On the supply side, the release of new molybdenum mining capacity is slow, and overseas molybdenum is mostly associated with copper mines, resulting in limited supply elasticity; on the demand side, AI brings not just traditional single demands for steel but a multi-point diffusion of "special steel + high-temperature alloys + target materials + molybdenum-copper heat sinks." (Source: Huaxi Securities 20260623 "Base Metals Weekly: Mining Shortages Support Metal Prices, Focus on Incremental Demand Under the AI Wave") Invest in scarce resources like gold and copper, and focus on the **"gold and copper content"** of the **Yinhua CSI Non-ferrous Metal ETF (159652)**, which has a gold and copper content of up to 43%, leading in its category, with a more concentrated leadership and stronger elasticity, covering gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and other sub-sectors, expected to benefit comprehensively from the non-ferrous super cycle. Off-market investors can pay attention to the linked funds (A:019164; C:019165), which can be subscribed and redeemed 24/7 Data as of 20260531, distributed according to CITIC's three-level industry classification. Risk Warning: Funds carry risks, and investment should be cautious. Investors should read legal documents such as the "Fund Contract," "Prospectus," and "Product Information Summary" to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, especially unique risks, and assess whether they align with their own risk tolerance based on their investment objectives, experience, and asset status. The fund manager commits to managing and utilizing fund assets with principles of honesty, credit, and prudence, but does not guarantee that the fund will definitely make a profit or that the principal will not suffer losses. The above fund belongs to a higher risk level (R4) product, suitable for investors whose risk tolerance assessment results are aggressive (C4) and above. Investors should pay attention to the risks of index investment and the holding risks of concentrated investments in the components of the non-ferrous index, as well as the risks associated with certain index components having larger weights and higher concentration. Please be aware of the risks of index investment, ETF operational risks, and the unique risks of investing in specific varieties. The individual stocks mentioned in this article are only an objective display of index components; the information provided is for reference only, and investors must be responsible for any investment decisions they make independently. 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