--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Micron Tech Soars After Earnings, U.S. May PCE Data on the Way" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290825100.md" description: "On June 25th, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures rose together. The market is focused on the upcoming US May PCE inflation data, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in core PCE. Wells Fargo strategists advise investors to avoid chasing highs and to wait for a pullback to position themselves, believing that recent volatility is due to a shift in Federal Reserve policy" datetime: "2026-06-25T11:39:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290825100.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290825100.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290825100.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Micron Tech Soars After Earnings, U.S. May PCE Data on the Way ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of June 25 (Thursday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.19%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.66%, and Nasdaq futures are up 2.08%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260625/1782387186901351.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.45%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.49%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.70%. ![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260625/1782387190518320.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.12%, priced at $69.55 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.07%, priced at $73.08 per barrel. ![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260625/1782387194969423.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **U.S. May PCE Data is Coming!** The U.S. May PCE data is about to be released. The market generally expects that the core PCE price index for May will rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. This is the first important inflation data since the Federal Reserve officials announced the interest rate decision last week. PCE is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. The Fed believes that PCE can more accurately measure price changes because it uses business surveys rather than consumer surveys, thus incorporating a broader range of data. The PCE price index rose by 3.8% year-on-year in April, far exceeding the 2% target, marking the largest increase in three years. If the U.S. May PCE data exceeds market expectations, it will further reinforce the hawkish signals released by the Federal Reserve during the June monetary policy meeting. **Federal Reserve's Shift Causes Market Turbulence, Wells Fargo: Don't Chase the Rally, Wait for a Pullback.** Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated that retail investors should avoid chasing market rallies and should instead look to buy during pullbacks. Wren advises, "Don't chase the highs, be ready to enter at any time," and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear long-term perspective during periods of market volatility. Wren pointed out that recent market fluctuations are a natural response to the Fed's shift from an accommodative to a tightening stance. He stated, "Whenever the Fed makes such a policy shift, the market always experiences downward volatility, especially after we have seen significant increases over the past three and a half years." Wren provided an optimistic economic forecast, expecting economic growth of about 2% to 2.5% over the next two years, with corporate earnings growth expected to reach 25% this year and about 15% next year. **JP Morgan Raises S&P 500 Target to 7800 Points, Maintains Bullish Outlook on U.S. Stocks.** JP Morgan believes that U.S. stocks are gradually moving towards the bank's most optimistic market scenario, supported by continued better-than-expected corporate earnings growth, an acceleration in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, and the potential for a long-term peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran Based on an optimistic assessment of corporate profit prospects, JP Morgan has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index and expects further upside potential for U.S. stocks. The team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, global market strategist at JP Morgan, has recently increased the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7,600 points to 7,800 points. Notably, this adjustment comes at a time when U.S. stocks are experiencing consecutive pullbacks. However, Lakos-Bujas believes that the current market adjustment has not altered the overall upward trend. He stated that investors need to recognize that the process of rising U.S. stocks will not be smooth, and the market still needs to digest various challenges brought about by valuation, earnings expectations, and changes in the macro environment, making periodic fluctuations a normal phenomenon. **The AI bull market is not over; the broad market has just begun! After the cooling of the tech over-allocation frenzy, sectors like cyclicals may trigger "AI diffusion trading."** Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management, stated that as the super bull market in tech stocks driven by AI computing power investment faces a renewed scrutiny of the sustainability of massive AI capital expenditure growth, significant market volatility surrounding AI-related tech stocks will continue. This seasoned Wall Street strategist warned in a media interview that it is time for investors to rebalance portfolios that have become overly weighted in high-valuation AI-related tech stocks. His views align closely with those of top Wall Street strategists like Morgan Stanley's chief Mike Wilson, who believe that "the AI mainline is not yet extinguished, and the bull market is spreading and rotating into non-AI tech." **Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz! 35 million barrels of stranded crude oil are set to flow out to sea, and international oil prices have erased all gains from the Middle East conflict.** As investors bet on the improvement of global crude oil supply following the departure of tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months, oil prices erased all gains made during the war on Thursday. According to trade tracking company Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying about 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to reopen this critical shipping route. Citibank stated that the significant easing of the situation is now its baseline forecast, and it expects Brent crude prices to fall to $60 to $65 per barrel in the next 6 to 12 months as shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal, adding that any seasonal rebound in crude oil during the summer should be "shorted on rallies." ## Individual Stock News **Micron Technology (MU.US) Q3 earnings explode, revenue triples, gross margin of 84.9% crushes Nvidia and Meta.** Micron achieved revenue of $41.46 billion in the third fiscal quarter, a staggering year-on-year increase of 346% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 74%. This figure far exceeds analysts' expectations of $35.69 billion and marks Micron's fifth consecutive quarter of record-breaking revenue. In terms of profitability, the company's performance is even more astonishing: adjusted earnings per share reached $25.11, exceeding the market consensus estimate of $20.49 by a full $4.62. Net profit also surged over 100%, climbing to $28.24 billion. What excited the market the most was the leap in gross margin On the basis of 74.9% in the previous quarter, Micron's adjusted gross margin jumped directly to 84.9% this season, more than doubling year-on-year. In comparison, social media giant Meta's latest quarterly gross margin was 81.9%, while AI chip leader NVIDIA stood at 75%. Regarding the guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter, Micron stated that fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be around $50 billion, also significantly higher than analysts' expectations of $42.5 billion. Micron's financial report indicates that the investment boom in AI infrastructure continues to drive the storage industry into an upturn cycle, temporarily alleviating market concerns about AI memory demand. As of the time of publication, Micron Technology's stock rose nearly 19% in pre-market trading on Thursday. **Storage chip and optical communication stocks surged.** Boosted by Micron's financial report, storage chip stocks collectively rose. As of the time of publication on Thursday in pre-market trading, SanDisk (SNDK.US) was up over 15%, Western Digital (WDC.US) rose nearly 13%, and Seagate Technology (STX.US) increased nearly 10%. Optical communication stocks also generally rose. Corning (GLW.US) was up over 6%, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM.US) and AXT Inc (AXT.US) rose nearly 5%, Credo Technology (CRDO.US) was up over 4%, Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) increased nearly 4%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US) and Lumentum (LITE.US) were up over 3%, and Nokia (NOK.US) rose over 2%. **AI enters the era of profitability! Jensen Huang releases strong bullish signals for the long-term development of the industry, and Vera Rubin is in full production.** At NVIDIA's annual shareholder meeting, Jensen Huang released strong bullish signals for the long-term development of the AI industry. He stated that the market's doubts about the return on investment in AI have "already been answered," as AI begins to create actual economic value, the world is entering a new phase of large-scale construction of "AI factories." Jensen Huang mentioned that Vera Rubin has entered full production, with major model developers, public clouds, AI clouds, and hyperscale cloud vendors all preparing to build based on it. Vera will become one of the most important product launches in the company's history, and orders have already started coming in. Vera is opening up a brand new CPU market designed for intelligent agents. Additionally, Jensen Huang referred to "physical AI" as NVIDIA's next wave of growth. Regarding shareholder returns, Jensen Huang stated that NVIDIA recently announced a significant increase in dividends and expanded its stock buyback plan, intending to return 50% or more of free cash flow to shareholders this year, next year, and in the future. **Qualcomm (QCOM.US) Investor Day unveils "data center blueprint": aiming for $15 billion in revenue by 2029, doubling non-mobile business targets.** Qualcomm released extremely aggressive growth signals at its Investor Day, announcing a major entry into the artificial intelligence (AI) data center chip sector and significantly raising its long-term financial targets. Qualcomm expects that by fiscal year 2029, its data center business annual revenue will exceed $15 billion, while overall revenue from non-smartphone businesses will reach $40 billion. This non-mobile business target has nearly doubled from the $22 billion set two years ago This non-mobile business target has nearly doubled from the $22 billion set two years ago. Specifically, the growth path for the data center business is clear and aggressive. Parikh Vala revealed that starting in fiscal year 2027, which begins this October, this business will contribute $5 billion in revenue, with $1 billion coming from newly expanded custom chip customers. In the further-out fiscal year 2029, the company's automotive chip business revenue target has also been raised to $10 billion, and it stated that its "automotive design bid project pipeline" has expanded to $65 billion. Qualcomm also expects adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2029 to exceed $18, far surpassing analysts' expectations of $15.26. As of the time of writing, Qualcomm's stock rose over 11% in pre-market trading on Thursday. **Anthropic siphons top talent from Google! After losing the AI talent defense line, Google's (GOOGL.US) AI ambitions face market skepticism.** Media reports citing informed sources indicate that two top artificial intelligence researchers from American tech giant Google (GOOGL.US) plan to leave to join competitor Anthropic PBC; this adds another case to a series of high-profile departures from Google recently, which could weaken the search giant's leadership position in the AI application field and also suggests that Google's AI blueprint may face significant resistance at this stage. According to insiders, Jonas Adler and Alexander Pritzel are both seen internally at Google as key contributors to the company's exclusive AI super application ecosystem—Gemini AI large model ecosystem, and they will be moving to the developer of Claude. Adler has been primarily responsible for and deeply involved in the company's AI programming-related developer work, while Pritzel has participated in the entire training process of the artificial intelligence system. **AI "power shortage" ignites virtual power plants! Sunrun (RUN.US) teams up with Tesla (TSLA.US) to establish a 16GW power plant.** American residential solar supplier Sunrun announced it will collaborate with Tesla and Renew Home to provide power for data centers and utility companies across the U.S. These companies stated on Wednesday that the agreement will establish a platform to provide 16 gigawatts (GW) of power by integrating hundreds of thousands of home batteries operated by Sunrun and Tesla, along with 8 million thermostats managed by Renew Home—enough to meet the electricity needs of approximately 12 million American households. These companies indicated that this power capacity will be provided to artificial intelligence (AI) data center developers on a first-come, first-served basis. As of the time of writing, Sunrun's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Thursday, after a more than 12% surge on Wednesday. **Stress test passed smoothly! JPMorgan (JPM.US) and Goldman Sachs (GS.US) lead, Wall Street's major banks collectively "distribute money" to reward shareholders.** After successfully passing this year's Federal Reserve stress tests, large American banks have announced dividend increases. The largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan, raised its quarterly dividend from $1.50 per share to $1.65; Goldman Sachs, following the release of the Federal Reserve's annual assessment results, increased its dividend from $4.50 to $5 JP Morgan simultaneously authorized a new $50 billion stock repurchase plan, effective from July 1. Citigroup (C.US) raised its quarterly dividend from $0.60 to $0.67 (pending board approval), Wells Fargo (WFC.US) increased it from $0.45 to $0.50, and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) raised it from $1.00 to $1.15. As a regulatory measure introduced after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests showed that all tested banks have sufficient capital to withstand shocks from hypothetical economic downturns. This test typically sets the tone for how banks return capital to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. **IBM (IBM.US) launched the world's first sub-1nm chip technology, improving energy efficiency by 70%.** IBM introduced the world's first sub-1 nanometer chip technology, with new chip designs achieving up to a 50% performance increase and 70% better energy efficiency compared to its 2 nanometer node chips. IBM's new sub-1 nanometer chip packs nearly 100 billion transistors into a chip the size of a fingernail, with a density nearly double that of IBM's 2 nanometer chip released in 2021. This technology benefits from a series of structural and material innovations, including IBM's groundbreaking three-dimensional nanosheet architecture, demonstrating that even as chip characteristics approach atomic levels, continuous improvements in performance and efficiency are still possible. The published technical results report indicates that this new chip is expected to achieve significant leaps in performance—up to a 50% increase in performance and a 70% improvement in energy efficiency, meeting the computing needs from generative artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure to next-generation electronic devices. Given the early adoption of nanosheet technology at the sub-1 nanometer node, IBM expects to achieve mass production within five years at the earliest. As of the time of publication, IBM's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Thursday. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing time 20:30 US May PCE Price Index Beijing time 20:30 US Q1 final real GDP annualized quarterly rate final Beijing time 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 Beijing time 20:45 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participates in a discussion titled "Regulation and Management of Small Banks" Beijing time the next day 03:40 FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks ### Related Stocks - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [WFC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [MUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUU.US.md) - [MUD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUD.US.md) - [MULL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MULL.US.md) - [JEPI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JEPI.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [MUZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUZ.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SPYI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYI.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [XYLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XYLD.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [MUYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUYY.US.md) - [DDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DDM.US.md) - [UDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UDOW.US.md) - [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [SDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDOW.US.md) - [DXD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXD.US.md) - [ONEQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [QQEW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [QQQE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQE.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [QLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QLD.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [QID.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QID.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Micron’s blockbuster earnings quiet the AI doubters](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290749438.md) - [Why everyone is talking about Micron](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290862553.md) - [Micron Just Crushed Earnings and the Options Market Says $1,100 Is Just the Beginning](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290740642.md) - [Micron (MU) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290504698.md) - [Micron Just Gave AI Investors Exactly What They Wanted](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290810163.md)