--- title: "Sentiment Disruption vs. Earnings Validation: JPMorgan Highlights Three Key Points for the Memory Sector in Q2" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290859564.md" description: "JPMorgan's report indicates that recent volatility in the U.S. memory chip sector is primarily driven by sentiment rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The market is entering an earnings validation window, with a focus on the pace of Long-Term Agreement (LTA) implementation, cloud service providers' capital expenditure guidance, and supply-side constraints. The strategic partnership between Micron Tech and Anthropic is viewed as a new quasi-LTA structure, marking the evolution of supply-demand dynamics toward synergy between \"capacity + capital.\" Large-scale LTA implementation in the second half of 2026 is expected to drive a re-rating of industry valuations" datetime: "2026-06-25T16:22:16.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290859564.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290859564.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290859564.md) --- # Sentiment Disruption vs. Earnings Validation: JPMorgan Highlights Three Key Points for the Memory Sector in Q2 Over the past three months, the U.S. memory chip sector has seen cumulative gains of 44%–184%, significantly outperforming the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 20%–88% rise during the same period. However, recent volatility has intensified markedly. The core market divergence lies in whether sentiment-driven trading enthusiasm can receive substantial earnings support during the earnings season. In its June 24 report, JPMorgan maintained its view that the "upcycle continues to extend," arguing that recent stock price fluctuations are driven more by sentiment and trading structures than by fundamental deterioration. The market is currently entering a concentrated validation window for earnings and guidance. Regarding the quality of earnings in this cycle, JPMorgan focuses on three key validation threads: **the pace of Long-Term Agreement (LTA) implementation, Cloud Service Provider (CSP) capital expenditure guidance, and structural constraints on the supply side.** These variables will jointly determine whether the pricing logic of the memory industry in the AI cycle enters the next stage of revaluation. ## Pace of LTA Implementation: The Core Variable for Valuation Re-rating JPMorgan points out that the progress of Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) is one of the most important structural variables in the current memory cycle. Since May, **LTA announcements have slowed significantly, but this does not indicate a break in the trend; rather, it reflects negotiations entering a more complex phase.** The report shows that memory manufacturers are becoming more cautious regarding price locks, prepayment ratios, and contract protection clauses, while some corporate governance factors have also delayed the signing process. Nevertheless, **the market has seen "sample-level breakthroughs," with the strategic partnership between Micron Tech and Anthropic being particularly typical.** This agreement not only covers long-term supply arrangements for HBM, DRAM, and SSDs but also extends to deep binding at the equity and financing levels. JPMorgan views this as a new "quasi-LTA structure," marking the evolution of supply-demand relationships from simple supply to synergy between "capacity + capital." Furthermore, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also regarded as important strategic suppliers within the Anthropic ecosystem, further reinforcing the trend of long-term locking of AI memory supply. JPMorgan expects that **the true window for large-scale LTA implementation will be concentrated in the second half of 2026. At that time, U.S. hyperscale cloud providers are expected to become the main contracting entities, driving the industry valuation into a new round of re-rating cycles.** ## CSP Capital Expenditure: AI Memory Share Enters Accelerated Rise The second thread comes from changes in the capital expenditure structure of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). The report shows that the share of AI memory in CSP capital expenditure has rapidly increased from less than 20% in 2022 to an estimated 52% in 2026, and is expected to exceed 70% in 2027. **The significance of this change is that memory is gradually evolving from a "supporting link" in AI infrastructure to one of the core constraint variables affecting the pace of computing power expansion.** However, market divergence around this trend is widening. On one hand, earnings expectations for memory manufacturers continue to be revised upward; on the other hand, the market is beginning to question whether such a high proportion of AI memory investment is sustainable, especially against the backdrop where AI commercialization returns have not yet been fully realized. JPMorgan believes that this expectation gap will not converge quickly. Historical experience suggests that semiconductor earnings revisions often lead capital expenditure confirmation, but the final trend still depends on cloud providers' judgments on the evolution of AI server architectures and long-term ROI. **Therefore, CSP CAPEX guidance in this earnings season will become a key variable determining the intensity of market volatility.** ## Supply and Technology Path: Coexistence of HBM Capacity Expansion and "Efficiency Constraints" The third key variable stems from structural changes on the supply side. Although major memory manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion, the industry as a whole still faces significant structural constraints. On one hand, SK Hynix's monthly DRAM production capacity is expected to increase to approximately 630,000 wafers by the end of the year, and Samsung is continuing to advance the construction of advanced production lines. On the other hand, the construction cycle for green capacity is as long as 2–2.5 years, meaning that **supply elasticity still significantly lags behind demand expansion.** More importantly, HBM is reshaping the logic of "bit output efficiency." Due to its higher value-added and complex packaging structure, the increasing share of HBM actually suppresses the overall bit supply growth rate to some extent, keeping the industry in a relatively low supply growth range. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this content is at the user's own risk. ### Related Stocks - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [MUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUU.US.md) - [MUD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUD.US.md) - [MULL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MULL.US.md) - [ANTH.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ANTH.NA.md) - [MUYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUYY.US.md) - [MUZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUZ.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Micron Announces Strategic Agreement With Anthropic Spanning Memory, Storage AI Architecture And Enterprise Claude Adoption](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290529992.md) - [Micron signs multi-year memory, storage supply deal with Anthropic](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290440002.md) - [Micron Just Crushed Earnings and the Options Market Says $1,100 Is Just the Beginning](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290740642.md) - [Micron's stock momentum builds as the company inks a new Anthropic partnership](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290450744.md) - [Micron Just Gave AI Investors Exactly What They Wanted](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290810163.md)