--- title: "Tesla Q2 deliveries may exceed expectations? Barclays and Morgan Stanley are optimistic, with China and Europe becoming the main growth drivers" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/291154284.md" description: "Barclays and Morgan Stanley raised their Q2 delivery expectations for Tesla to 418,000 and 413,000 units, respectively, both exceeding the market consensus expectation of 396,000 units. Analysts believe that strong performance in the Chinese and European markets is the main growth driver, despite a weak performance in the U.S. market. Barclays pointed out that the stock price is currently driven by narratives such as AI, marginalizing the fundamentals; Morgan Stanley also raised its earnings forecast in line with the positive delivery outlook" datetime: "2026-06-29T13:36:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/291154284.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/291154284.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/291154284.md) --- # Tesla Q2 deliveries may exceed expectations? Barclays and Morgan Stanley are optimistic, with China and Europe becoming the main growth drivers According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to release its second-quarter delivery report before the end of this week's shortened trading day. Barclays expects the electric vehicle manufacturer to deliver 418,000 units in the second quarter, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of 396,000 units. Analyst Dan Levy added that for Tesla investors, car sales and fundamental factors are gradually becoming secondary. He stated, "We believe that Tesla's stock price is currently almost entirely driven by market narratives, with investors hoping for multiple turning points in areas such as Robotaxi, Optimus, and artificial intelligence (AI). In contrast, fundamental indicators such as second-quarter delivery volumes and profit margins are increasingly marginalized in discussions." However, Levy and his team still believe that Barclays' judgment of second-quarter deliveries exceeding expectations and a return to growth in sales should be viewed as a positive signal. Levy emphasized, "We believe our forecasts may be above investor expectations, but we think this is supported by strong data so far this quarter—good momentum in the European market, stable sales in China, despite a weak domestic market environment in the U.S." Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has also raised its estimate for Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume. Analyst Andrew Percoco and his team expect deliveries to be 413,000 units, up from the previous forecast of 373,000 units. The firm noted that although trends in the U.S. market remain soft, improvements in the European and Chinese markets are expected to drive a year-on-year increase in deliveries of 7.6%. The firm stated that the surprises from the European market are the most significant, with vehicle registration data significantly higher than the same period last year, and April data continuing the recovery trend following a difficult period in 2025. The Chinese market also shows signs of improvement, with domestic sales achieving both month-on-month and year-on-year growth in May, ending two consecutive months of year-on-year decline, indicating that demand is stabilizing. Although sales in the U.S. market remain below last year's levels as of May, the overall regional performance has exceeded Morgan Stanley's previous expectations. The positive delivery outlook has also prompted Morgan Stanley to raise its earnings forecasts. The firm has increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA expectations by 11% and slightly raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts, mainly reflecting the increase in delivery volumes and improvements in automotive business profit margins ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLW.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLI.US.md) - [TSLO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLO.US.md) - [TSLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLY.US.md) - [TSYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSYY.US.md) - [TYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TYYY.US.md) - [CRSH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRSH.US.md) - [TSLP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLP.US.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [MAGX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MAGX.US.md) - [07366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla Faces Q2 Delivery Test](https://longbridge.com/en/news/291149137.md) - [US safety agency ends power steering probe into 376,000 Tesla EVs](https://longbridge.com/en/news/291029070.md) - [Tesla plans another 1,000 hires in Grünheide](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290930923.md) - [Tesla Is Giving Away Free Supercharging. 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