--- title: "Tesla's Q2 deliveries are expected to see moderate growth, while the automotive business remains the foundation amid the rising AI narrative" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/291441220.md" description: "Analysts expect Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in Q2 to be approximately 396,500 units, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year. Although this is lower than recent peaks, it still represents growth. Despite the market's focus shifting towards AI and robotics, automobiles remain the core foundation and source of cash. Musk plans to spend over $25 billion on capital expenditures for capacity expansion, mass production of Optimus, and commercialization of FSD, but it will take several years for these new businesses to generate substantial revenue" datetime: "2026-07-01T16:03:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/291441220.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/291441220.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/291441220.md) --- # Tesla's Q2 deliveries are expected to see moderate growth, while the automotive business remains the foundation amid the rising AI narrative According to Zhitong Finance APP, despite the market's increasing focus on artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and robotics, Tesla's (TSLA.US) automotive business remains the core support for the company's development. Analysts expect a slight year-on-year increase in Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, although it is still significantly below the peak levels seen in recent years. According to analyst forecasts, Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in the second quarter are expected to be around 396,500 units, a year-on-year increase of about 3%. In the same period last year, the company's brand was temporarily affected due to CEO Elon Musk's controversial role in the Trump administration, which is why this year's delivery volume is expected to achieve moderate growth. ![WeChat Screenshot_20260701115218.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260701/1782921148886078.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) However, this achievement is still far below Tesla's quarterly delivery peak of nearly 500,000 units in recent years. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of a slowdown in the overall growth of the global electric vehicle market, Tesla's vehicle sales may have entered a new phase of "low growth but more stability." Compared to vehicle sales, many investors are now more focused on Tesla's future developments in AI, autonomous driving, and robotics. Especially after SpaceX completed a large-scale initial public offering (IPO) in June this year, speculation in the market about Musk's future integration of SpaceX, Tesla, and AI businesses has continued to heat up. Nevertheless, the automotive business remains an important source of cash to support Tesla's future expansion. Musk previously estimated that the company's capital expenditures would exceed $25 billion this year, about three times that of last year. This funding will primarily be used to expand factory capacity, advance the mass production of the Optimus humanoid robot, strengthen AI infrastructure, and promote the commercialization of the autonomous Cybercab. However, analysts believe that the aforementioned businesses are still several years away from generating large-scale revenue. Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, stated that as long as vehicle deliveries can maintain moderate growth, investors will be satisfied, as the market's focus has gradually shifted to the development of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software subscription business and the Robotaxi autonomous taxi business. Munster noted that Tesla still needs to prove that its core automotive business remains stable. He pointed out that a year ago, the company was still affected by the negative brand impact of Musk's involvement in the Trump administration's large-scale government spending cuts, but the brand image is gradually improving now, which is also one of the important reasons for the sales recovery. From a regional performance perspective, the European market has become one of Tesla's fastest-growing regions. Previously, Musk's support for some right-wing parties in Europe and his close relationship with Trump had temporarily dragged down local market demand. However, in the first five months of this year, driven by Germany's introduction of new zero-emission vehicle subsidy policies, Tesla's sales in Europe increased by 57% year-on-year At the same time, the performance of the Chinese market has also improved. Preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference shows that Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory saw a year-on-year increase of 39% in shipments in May. In contrast, demand in the U.S. market remains under pressure. Analysts expect that due to the Trump administration's cancellation of the electric vehicle tax credit policy last year, U.S. sales in the second quarter may even fall below the relatively weak levels of the same period last year. TD Cowen analysts stated that if Tesla's delivery performance in June is strong, the company's second-quarter delivery volume is expected to exceed market expectations, thereby boosting the stock price, which has been under pressure recently. As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's stock price has fallen by approximately 6.5% year-to-date. However, in the context of a lack of significant progress in autonomous driving, AI, and robotics businesses in the short term, market attention is gradually shifting to another potential catalyst: whether Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX.US) might merge in the future. Some analysts believe that this potential deal is influencing investors' valuation logic for Tesla. Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois stated that as market expectations for the future integration of the two companies continue to rise, investors may pay more attention to the share exchange ratio to mitigate the impact of equity dilution. 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