SG Morning Brief | SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 Tomorrow, All Three Indexes Up Last Week Despite Chip Carnage

Weekend WrapIran refused to meet directly with US delegates in Doha, agreeing only to indirect talks through Qatari and Pakistani mediators. VP Vance claimed the US has "accomplished the core mission" of ensuring Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, signaling Washington may settle for a less comprehensive deal. A cargo ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz after deviating from a Tehran-designated shipping lane, underscoring the passage's fragility. Oil continued its descent, with Brent falling to $72.20 and WTI to $68.77 on Wednesday — approaching pre-war levels. Wedbush's Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX at Outperform with a $190 price target, calling it "much more of an AI play" and a future major hyperscaler. SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins Tuesday July 7.US Overnight (Thursday July 2 Close — Last Session)The Dow surged 1.14% to a record 52,900.07 after June payrolls missed badly at 57,000 (vs 113,000 est), easing rate hike fears. The S&P 500 was flat at 7,483.24. The Nasdaq fell 0.80% to 25,832.67 as the chip selloff continued for a second straight day. For the holiday-shortened week, all three indexes posted gains: S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Dow +2.0%. The fact that every major index rose for the week despite an 11% two-day chip crash tells you the rotation is broadening the market, not breaking it. The Mag 7 lost approximately $2.3 trillion in market value during June.Key Movers (Thursday)Covered in Friday's briefing. Highlights: SanDisk -14%, Teradyne -14%, KLA -12%, Marvell -10%, Micron -5.5%, Nvidia -1.4%. Gold surged to $4,130 on the dovish jobs data.SGX PreviewThe STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The Dow's record close and falling oil ($69-72 range) provide a supportive backdrop for Singapore. Banks benefit from the still-elevated rate environment, though the weak NFP has softened hike expectations. The SpaceX Nasdaq-100 inclusion tomorrow could trigger forced selling of existing QQQ constituents — including Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia — as index funds rebalance to make room. That mechanical pressure may create a temporary headwind for Asian tech names tracking the Nasdaq.Asia Pre-MarketFutures data was not yet available after the long weekend. The mood heading into Monday is cautiously constructive: the Dow at a record, oil at multi-month lows, and the jobs report giving the Fed room to hold. The chip correction is the outstanding risk. The SOX fell 11% in two days and whether dip-buyers appear or the selloff extends will set the tone for Q3.This Week's US Earnings and Economic CalendarEventDateTime (ET)Time (UTC+8)SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100Tue Jul 7before open—ISM Services PMI (Jun)Mon Jul 610:00 AM10:00 PMJOLTS Job Openings (May)Wed Jul 810:00 AM10:00 PMCPI (June)Thu Jul 98:30 AM8:30 PMInitial ClaimsThu Jul 98:30 AM8:30 PMQ2 earnings season begins next week (July 13: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup).Week Ahead Spotlight: June CPI (Thursday) — The most important inflation print of the summer. May CPI was 4.2%, driven by $100+ oil. Since then, WTI has collapsed from $95 to $69 — a 27% decline. If June CPI reflects even part of that energy price drop, headline inflation could fall below 4% for the first time since April. Core CPI is the wildcard: May core was 3.4% YoY, and housing/services inflation has been sticky regardless of oil. A cool print validates the "patience" stance. A hot print revives the hike debate at the July 29-30 FOMC.One More ThingSpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 tomorrow is the final chapter of the most consequential IPO since Alibaba. In three weeks, the stock debuted at $135, surged to $202, crashed back to $153, and is now being force-fed into every QQQ-tracking portfolio in the world. The forced buying from $800 billion in index assets could support the stock near-term, but the math is stark: SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year on $18.7 billion in revenue. At its current valuation near $1.9 trillion, the stock trades at roughly 100x sales. That is a bet on Starlink, Starship, and Musk's AI ambitions all delivering simultaneously. The Nasdaq-100 has now added SpaceX, CoreWeave, Nebius, Astera Labs, and Rocket Lab in a single month — five AI/space names in four weeks. The index is no longer just a tech benchmark. It is an AI conviction trade.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.