Citi Expects Strong 1H26 Results for Mainland Chinese Life Insurers; Opens 30-Day Positive Catalyst Watch on CHINA LIFE and NCI

Citi issued a report expecting strong results from mainland Chinese life insurers in 1H26, with both first-year premiums and new business value estimates achieving double-digit growth, mainly benefiting from strong momentum in bancassurance business. As stock market performance in 2Q26 improved significantly from the same period last year, life insurance-focused insurers are expected to issue positive profit alerts due to substantial increases in investment income, including CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) +0.760 (+2.676%) Short selling $543.25M; Ratio 30.514% , NCI (01336.HK) +0.820 (+1.718%) Short selling $83.25M; Ratio 27.083% and CHINA TAIPING (00966.HK) +0.570 (+2.886%) Short selling $54.35M; Ratio 21.725% .

For property and casualty insurers, the bank expected original premium income growth in 1H26 to remain broadly flat, mainly affected by weak new car sales. However, the combined ratio is expected to further optimize to historical best levels, mainly due to expense optimization in non-auto insurance business and improved claims performance for new energy vehicle insurance, despite a 13% YoY increase in nationwide natural disaster losses in the first five months of 2026.

Citi opened a 30-day positive catalyst watch on CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) +0.760 (+2.676%) Short selling $543.25M; Ratio 30.514% and NCI (01336.HK) +0.820 (+1.718%) Short selling $83.25M; Ratio 27.083% , focusing on potential positive profit alerts. (ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-03 16:25.)