GLMS SEC: In the first half of 2026, the metal sector is expected to rise and then fall, with the price center of metals likely to move upward in the second half of the year

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, GLMS SEC has released a research report stating that in the first half of 2026, commodity prices operated at high levels, and the overall stock prices in the sector rose and then fell back. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to ease, and interest rate hike expectations are likely to decline. The constraints on the metal supply side have not yet been resolved, with the resumption of mining operations delayed. The demand side shows strong resilience in traditional industries, while emerging fields such as AI + energy storage are driving marginal demand, suggesting that the central price of metals is likely to rise.

The main viewpoints of GLMS SEC are as follows:

Copper: After the full moon, it waits for the long wind. Financial attributes: The U.S.-Iran conflict eases, and interest rate hike expectations are likely to decline.

On the supply side, mature mines continue to reduce production, and the resumption of mining operations is delayed, maintaining a tightening supply situation. In the long term, copper mining companies have insufficient long-term capital expenditure, coupled with the weakening of resource endowments due to declining ore grades. Although prices are at high levels, supply is difficult to increase. In the short term, the resumption of large mines is generally delayed, and supply contradictions remain sharp. On the demand side, demand in the power sector is strong, domestic social inventory reduction exceeds expectations, traditional demand areas show strong resilience, and emerging fields such as AI + energy storage are creating incremental marginal demand. Coupled with stockpiling demand driven by U.S. tariff expectations, copper prices may continue to rise. Key recommendations: Western Mining, Shengton Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, with a suggestion to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper.

Precious Metals: Geopolitical tensions ease, long bull market remains unchanged.

In the short term, U.S. economic data shows resilience, and negotiations on geopolitical issues have seen some reversals. Before geopolitical events are fully resolved, market divergences are increasing, oil prices remain volatile, and uncertainties in global energy and financial markets persist. Under fluctuating liquidity and inflation expectations, gold and silver prices are showing volatility. In the medium to long term, the main logic for gold prices will still return to central bank gold purchases and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, and the bank remains optimistic about the long-term upward trend of gold prices. Silver has both industrial and financial attributes, with its financial attributes moving in sync with gold, and its price volatility is greater than that of gold. Key recommendations: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining International, Western Gold, Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Tongguan Gold, and WanGuo Gold Group, with suggestions to pay attention to China Gold International, Lingbao Gold, Datang Gold, and Jihai Resources, and silver targets recommended include Industrial Bank Silver Tin and Shengda Resources.

Aluminum: Old industries at their peak, new chapters emerging.

On the supply side, domestic capacity constraints are rigid, and supply increments are limited; overseas supply has significantly decreased due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, while new capacities in countries like Indonesia are being released in batches, making it difficult to reverse the supply gap in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to rise. On the demand side, the growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles is slowing but remains positive, with rapid growth in demand for aluminum in cables and energy storage, and exports are expected to improve significantly year-on-year; high prices of traditional energy overseas are accelerating the release of new energy demand, which is expected to boost aluminum demand. On the raw material side, there is significant new capacity for alumina, but demand growth is limited, leading to a clear oversupply and price decline; expectations of tightening bauxite supply in Guinea are strengthening, and attention should be paid to resource nationalism's interference at the mining end. Key recommendations: China Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, Hongqiao Group, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Holdings, Innovation Industry, and China Hongqiao.

Risk Warning: Fluctuations in metal prices may decline, terminal demand may fall short of expectations, and overseas economic development may not meet expectations