--- title: "EJFQ Analysis 丨 Large New Stocks Typically Weak in the First Year, SpaceX May Dive" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292364253.md" description: "After being included in the Nasdaq 100, SpaceX's stock price has significantly retraced. Although it is favored by investment banks, it faces doubts about its high valuation. Statistics show that the performance of large new stocks in their first year is generally weak, with an average return of -2%, and most companies experience significant pullbacks, which SpaceX may also repeat" datetime: "2026-07-11T00:45:51.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292364253.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292364253.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292364253.md) --- # EJFQ Analysis 丨 Large New Stocks Typically Weak in the First Year, SpaceX May Dive The Wall Street stock market closed higher across the board on Thursday (9th), with the Nasdaq 100 rebounding for two consecutive days since July 7, rising 1.9%. Notably, July 7 is mentioned because SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, was officially included in the index. SpaceX is the largest IPO in history, with shares listed on June 12. Even before its IPO preparations were in full swing, the Nasdaq Stock Exchange suddenly announced new rules in May, allowing newly listed companies with a market capitalization reaching the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 to enter the index through a "Fast Entry Pathway." This rule was essentially "tailor-made" for SpaceX, facilitating the tracking of the stock by funds that allocate to the Nasdaq 100. In fact, on Thursday, SpaceX had a market value of about $2 trillion, ranking seventh in the index. After landing on Nasdaq, SpaceX reached a high of $225.64 but fell to $148.3 on July 8, a decline of more than 35% at one point (26.5% by closing). At the same time as officially becoming a component of the Nasdaq 100, the "Mandatory Quiet Period," during which IPO initial traders cannot comment on the company, had just ended. Several investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, released reports optimistic about SpaceX's prospects. Citigroup analyst John Godyn was the most bullish, believing that if the Starship can be successfully launched, SpaceX's target price could optimistically reach $900! Currently, the low Earth orbit communication satellite business, Starlink, contributes the majority of SpaceX's revenue and profits, while other investments are still in the "burning cash" stage. In the first quarter of this year alone, the company recorded a loss of $4.27 billion (with a "mere" loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025). Moreover, SpaceX priced its IPO at an extremely high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, leading the market to question whether the 2000 dot-com bubble is reappearing. The famous investment website The Motley Fool published statistics by Trevor Jennewine, which found that among the top 15 IPOs on Wall Street (excluding SpaceX), the average maximum drawdown (from the peak) of company stock prices within one year of listing is 23%, while the return one year after the IPO is negative 2%. Only three companies did not "dive." SpaceX's IPO price was $135, and based on this calculation, it may drop to around $132 by June next year. Even if one is optimistic about its long-term development, it might be better to wait for a better "bottom-fishing" opportunity. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index opened 183 points higher on Friday, with support at the 24,000 mark, rising further to 24,499 points before encountering resistance, closing at 24,175 points, up only 144 points. Attached is a chart showing that the Hang Seng Index has recovered the 10-day and 20-day moving averages during the week, indicating a significant improvement in technical trends. Additionally, the smooth mid-line market breadth (the ratio of stocks above the 10-day moving average to those above the 50-day moving average) has risen for two consecutive days, confirming a bottom in what is also known as a "golden cross." It is believed that the market will soon break through the volume concentration area of 24,200 to 24,700 points Hong Kong Economic Journal Investment Research Department Try EJFQ now to access exclusive content Enlarge image ### Related Stocks - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [LOFF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LOFF.US.md) - [SPAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPAL.US.md) - [SPCF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCF.US.md) - [SNK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNK.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [SSPC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSPC.US.md) - [SPCU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCU.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [00HSI.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00HSI.HK.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) ## Related News & Research - ['Don't Expect More Miracles,' Says Investor About SpaceX Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293529763.md) - [Elon Musk's Starship Tries Again Today After Engine Abort, Weather Scrub: What Prediction Markets Say About Flight 13](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293772057.md) - [SpaceX lockup expiry: Morgan Stanley believes 'largely unchanged' fundamentals create attractive entry point at current levels](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293785215.md) - [Elon Musk reveals SpaceX performed secret Starship test on Flight 13](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293954705.md) - [Elon Musk Reveals the Secret Test SpaceX Performed During Starship Flight 13](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294103015.md)