I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Netflix reports Q2 earnings with shares down 20% YTD. Prediction markets indicate a high probability of beating consensus estimates. Traders on Kalsi expect co-CEOs to emphasize 'Competition,' 'Gaming,' 'Live Event,' and 'Acquisition' while avoiding mentions of the failed Paramount deal, subscriber counts, or ad-supported tiers.
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today with shares down almost 20% this year.
Polymarket gives the streamer roughly a 76% chance of beating the 79-cent consensus.
Netflix shares have fallen after each of the last four reports, and a Guggenheim survey reportedly found clients picking the stock as a top short into the print.
The more revealing action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters will say on the call.
What Kalshi Predicts Netflix Will Say
“Competition” leads the board at 88%. Netflix is losing the attention war to YouTube, and it has reportedly explored adding live channels and even rival streamers like Peacock to keep viewers inside the app.
“Gaming” sits at 87%. Peters called cloud TV games “a big advancement and priority” on the last earnings call, and the company put a new FIFA game, the first since the franchise split with EA Sports, on every subscriber’s home screen for the World Cup. Reviewers savaged it.
“Live Event” is at 83%. Netflix just landed exclusive rights to MLB’s Home Run Derby, adding to its Christmas NFL games, and Guggenheim reportedly expects sports to carry Netflix’s content story for the rest of the year.
“Acquisition” is at 86%. On Monday, 12 states sued to block Paramount Skydance’s (NASDAQ:PSKY) roughly $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros., the deal Netflix lost after bidding around $83 billion.
With the merger in legal limbo, analysts will likely press whether Netflix might return to the table, or whether it has other targets in mind.
What Kalshi Predicts Netflix Will Skip
“Paramount” is at 29%, suggesting Netflix will discuss the deal it lost without naming the rival that won. With the merger now in court, that price may prove cheap if analysts force the topic into the room.
“Subscriber” is a toss-up at 54% and “Ad-Supported” sits at just 31%, meaning the words for Netflix’s old growth story and its new one are both in doubt. Netflix stopped disclosing subscriber counts last year, and the ad tier meant to double revenue toward $3 billion this year may get discussed in other terms.
Reading The Board
Traders expect the co-CEOs to talk up gaming and live events while staying quiet on the auction they lost, even as the courts drag it back into view.
Netflix guided this quarter’s operating margin down to 32.6% as content costs peak, so even a clean beat on the 79-cent consensus could lose out to a soft third-quarter outlook.
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