--- title: "JPM: Property Stocks Enter Earnings Upcycle, Developers Offer Less Certainty Than Landlords in Near Term" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292978304.md" description: "JPMorgan forecasts Hong Kong property stocks are entering a multi-year earnings upcycle, with core net profit expected to grow 9% YoY. The broker prefers landlord stocks over developers in the near term due to higher certainty, citing LINK REIT, Hongkong Land, and SWIREPROPERTIES as top picks. SHK PPT is favored among developers. Key selection criteria include low interest rate sensitivity, capital recycling, and improving operating data." datetime: "2026-07-17T03:20:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292978304.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292978304.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292978304.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # JPM: Property Stocks Enter Earnings Upcycle, Developers Offer Less Certainty Than Landlords in Near Term JPM published a report stating that after two to three years of an earnings downcycle for property stocks, the upcoming results releases from July to November (mostly interim results, though some full-year results are also included) are expected to mark the start of a multi-year earnings upcycle. The broker forecasts core net profit growth of 9% YoY and DPS growth of 2%-3% YoY, mainly driven by improving profit margins in Hong Kong property development, partial stabilization in rental income, and lower financing costs. In the near term, the broker expects the sector to remain heavily influenced by rapidly changing narratives surrounding interest rate trends. In stock selection, the broker prefers companies that: first, have lower sensitivity to interest rates; second, are expected to see earnings recovery over the next two to three years; third, are actively recycling capital; and fourth, have shown improving operating data in their core segments (for example, rebounding spot office rents in Central and stabilizing spot retail rents in Hong Kong). As concerns over capital outflow controls may not be fully eliminated in the short term, the broker believes property developers offer less certainty than landlord stocks in the near term. Its top picks among landlord stocks are LINK REIT (00823.HK) +0.800 (+2.063%) Short selling $102.03M; Ratio 28.850% , Hongkong Land and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) +0.280 (+1.264%) Short selling $19.61M; Ratio 15.008% ; its top pick among developers is SHK PPT (00016.HK) -0.600 (-0.487%) Short selling $305.72M; Ratio 41.326% ; and its preferred conglomerates are CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) +0.550 (+0.781%) Short selling $93.88M; Ratio 18.938% and Jardine Matheson. Stock | Investment Rating | TP (HKD) CK ASSET (01113.HK) +0.280 (+0.591%) Short selling $50.50M; Ratio 27.017% | Overweight | HKD52 HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) +0.140 (+0.512%) Short selling $163.94M; Ratio 49.587% | Neutral | HKD27 NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) -0.210 (-3.102%) Short selling $10.77M; Ratio 32.737% | Neutral | HKD6.8 SINO LAND (00083.HK) +0.100 (+0.943%) Short selling $40.76M; Ratio 38.221% | Overweight | HKD12.5 SHK PPT (00016.HK) -0.600 (-0.487%) Short selling $305.72M; Ratio 41.326% | Overweight | HKD140 HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK) +0.090 (+1.187%) Short selling $28.29M; Ratio 36.889% | Overweight | HKD12 SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) +0.280 (+1.264%) Short selling $19.61M; Ratio 15.008% | Overweight | HKD30 CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) +0.550 (+0.781%) Short selling $93.88M; Ratio 18.938% | Overweight | HKD79 (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-16 16:25.) ### Related Stocks - [H78.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/H78.SG.md) - [01972.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01972.HK.md) - [00016.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00016.HK.md) - [00823.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00823.HK.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [00001.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00001.HK.md) - [J36.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/J36.SG.md) - [01113.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01113.HK.md) - [00012.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00012.HK.md) - [00017.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00017.HK.md) - [00083.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00083.HK.md) - [00101.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00101.HK.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [80016.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/80016.HK.md) - [CKHUY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CKHUY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Swire Properties FY26 H1 profit attributable to shareholders returns to profit at HK$3.63 billion; revenue rises 8% to HK$9.41 billion](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297484992.md) - [M Stanley: Mainland's Revision of Overseas Investment Rules Adds Uncertainty for Developers, Prefers Landlords](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297149779.md) - [JPM: Short-term Property Mkt Sentiment Turning Cautious; Landlords Preferred Over Developers](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296853893.md) - [Link REIT files HKEX next-day disclosure return on unit buyback for treasury holdings](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297168393.md) - [Raven3 Real Estate: Hudson Valley Brothers Build 1,000-Unit Regional Housing Platform](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297362293.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**