---
title: "Fed July Rate Hold Probability at 85.6%"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293134242.md"
description: "According to Jin10, CME FedWatch shows an 85.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in July, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 14.4%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 38.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 7.9%."
datetime: "2026-07-19T21:56:45.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293134242.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293134242.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293134242.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Fed July Rate Hold Probability at 85.6%

According to Jin10, CME FedWatch shows an 85.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in July, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 14.4%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 38.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 7.9%.

### Related Stocks

- [CME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CME.US.md)
- [UUP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UUP.US.md)
- [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md)

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- [CME Group Inc. $CME Shares Acquired by Corient Private Wealth LP](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298825303.md)
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- [Fed is going to hike rates, says BlackRock's Rick Rieder](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299082986.md)
- [Oil prices rise, backing case for rate hikes](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298846410.md)
- ["Yea, they're going to hike" says BlackRock's Rick Rieder about the Fed raising rates tomorrow](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299082303.md)

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**