NVIDIA Plunges 5%! Massive AI Circular Trading Sparks Credit Risk Concerns; Apple Reclaims Top Global Market Cap Spot

News that NVIDIA is deeply involved in negotiations for AI infrastructure deals worth over $750 billion has triggered strong shocks in the credit derivatives market, with the cost of default protection hitting a record single-day increase. Meanwhile, Apple has gained market favor due to its restrained capital expenditure strategy, reclaiming the top spot among global listed companies by market capitalization.

According to ICE Data Services, NVIDIA's five-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread surged by as much as 14 basis points in a single day to 82 basis points, marking the largest intraday increase since the contract began active trading last November. Affected by this, NVIDIA's stock closed down 5% on Monday.

Apple's stock has risen 24% this year, closing up 1.2% on Monday, with a market capitalization of approximately $4.93 trillion, surpassing NVIDIA's $4.78 trillion.

The divergence between these two companies reflects deep-seated market 分歧 regarding the path of AI capital expenditure—investors are re-evaluating whether heavy bets on AI infrastructure serve as a moat or pose potential credit risks.

Massive Guaranteed Transactions Trigger Alert in Credit Markets

NVIDIA and South Korea's SK Group announced an AI cooperation agreement worth over $500 billion late last Friday. Simultaneously, NVIDIA is negotiating a guarantee agreement with OpenAI valued at up to $250 billion to assist the latter in leasing data center projects developed by a SoftBank subsidiary in Ohio. The disclosure of this news sparked widespread market attention.

The sheer scale of these transactions has put pressure on the debt market. Sal Naro, Chief Investment Officer at Coherence Credit Strategies, stated:

"The capital expenditure required to build AI infrastructure is massive, and the debt market is facing a supply shock. The market is concerned that opaque financial structures, off-balance-sheet transactions, and complex relationships among affiliated companies could spawn 'financial alchemy,' ultimately leading to credit rating downgrades."

Such large-scale financing typically requires investment-grade credit ratings for support. However, AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic PBC are currently in a phase of massive cash-burning expansion and struggle to secure such ratings independently. This means that endorsements from major tech giants like NVIDIA will be key to securing high ratings for related debts.

Apple's "Asset-Light" AI Path Gains Market Revaluation

Apple's stock has risen more than 22% year-to-date, leading the "Magnificent Seven." Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, pointed out:

"Apple was previously criticized for insufficient AI investment, but it now appears to have successfully avoided the capital expenditure trap."

Apple's capital expenditure has continued to decline over the past three quarters, forming a sharp contrast with its peers. Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance last week to support AI infrastructure construction, and Tesla also increased spending to advance its Robotaxi and robotics businesses. Both companies saw their stock prices fall after earnings releases—Alphabet has risen about 3% year-to-date, while Tesla has plunged nearly 30%.

The market is currently awaiting earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta later this week, with all three expected to announce further increases in AI-related spending.

Apple will release its earnings after the U.S. market closes on Thursday. Investors will focus closely on the progress of its "Apple Intelligence" features and the feasibility of scaling AI without significantly increasing capital expenditure or compressing operating margins.

Notably, Thursday will also be the last earnings conference call before Apple CEO Tim Cook steps down. He will officially step down on September 1 to become Executive Chairman, with Apple hardware engineering veteran John Ternus taking over as CEO.