After Four Weeks of Post-IPO Decline and Over 1.2 Billion Unlocked Shares Looming, Can SpaceX's First Quarterly Report Save Its Stock Price?

SpaceX is about to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, presenting a critical test for the market.

SpaceX will announce its second-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, August 4 (Eastern Time). As of Monday's opening, its stock price had fallen for four consecutive weeks, dropping about 20% from its IPO price of $135 and cumulatively declining 46% from its historical high of $201.80 at the close on June 16.

Colin Canfield, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, pointed out in a preview report that "earnings expectations for the initial quarter could see extreme deviations," implying that outsiders have little grasp on the performance trajectory.

Meanwhile, pressure from stock lifting hangs over the share price. Approximately 912 million shares will be approved for listing and trading on August 6, with another approximately 319 million shares to be unlocked within about a week thereafter. This means the potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and the market's attention will focus on the stock price reaction on Thursday and Friday—a strong earnings report may be the only catalyst to break the streak of declines.

Huge Revenue Potential in AI Business, but Highest Uncertainty

SpaceX discloses its earnings across three business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among these, the AI segment is the biggest uncertainty of the quarter.

The core asset of the AI business is xAI, which SpaceX completed merging with in February this year. xAI currently operates two terrestrial data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business generated $818 million in revenue but recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion, with capital expenditures reaching $7.7 billion.

Entering the second quarter, important variables emerged on the revenue side. SpaceX has signed AI data center lease agreements with Anthropic and Google, with the Anthropic agreement worth up to $1.25 billion per month, and volume began to ramp up gradually between May and June; the Google agreement has not yet started. This means there is significant elasticity in the actual revenue of the AI business this quarter, and trends in profit margins and the pace of new capital expenditures are equally difficult to predict.

Investors are most eager for guidance including: the company's outlook for the AI business in the second half of this year and 2027, as well as the timeline for advancing the concept of using Starship to launch low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit.

Starlink: User Growth is the Core Metric

The connectivity business, Starlink, is SpaceX's most stable profit engine. At the end of the first quarter, Starlink subscribers reached 10.3 million, more than doubling from 5 million twelve months earlier; the segment achieved revenue of $11.4 billion and operating profit of $4.4 billion for the quarter.

In this quarter's earnings report, user growth data will be the focus of market attention. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose metrics such as Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), as well as the backlog of contracts for enterprise and government businesses. These data points will help investors assess the depth of Starlink's commercialization and its future growth space.

Space Business: Starship Progress Under Scrutiny

The space segment carries SpaceX's core technological narrative. In the first quarter, this segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue, incurred an operating loss of $657 million, and added $1.1 billion in capital expenditures for new facilities and equipment. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed approximately 36 launches, most of which served the deployment of its own Starlink constellation; such launches are not counted in the space segment's revenue.

Progress on Starship is also drawing significant attention. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test. Investors will look for updates on the timing of the 14th test, as well as the scale of the company's continued investment in the rocket—Starship is the key launch vehicle for future commercial payload launches and AI satellite deployments.

Earnings Expectations and Market Outlook

Wall Street currently expects SpaceX's total revenue for the second quarter to be approximately $6.9 billion, with Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) of about $2.1 billion; full-year revenue expectations stand at $39 billion, with EBITDA expected at $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield holds a relatively optimistic view of this quarter, expecting performance to exceed expectations accompanied by positive guidance.

However, the reference value of these predictions is questionable. As this is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, analysts lack historical data as a calibration basis, making it possible for actual figures to deviate significantly.

Stock price trends are also full of variables. The supply pressure from unlocked shares, market concerns about Musk's divided attention, and controversies over valuation itself—calculated at a current market cap of approximately $1.4 trillion, corresponding to about 35 times the estimated 2026 revenue—will all be key factors influencing the market reaction post-earnings. For investors, this weekend may be far from calm.