U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise, Oil Prices Plunge, U.S. Stocks to Face Non-Farm Payroll Data and Major Earnings Reports Week

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of August 3rd (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 1.08%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.32%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.50%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.23%, the French CAC 40 index is up 1.30%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.01%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 5.91%, at $79.67 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 4.98%, at $83.55 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. stocks welcome non-farm payroll data and super earnings week: SpaceX's debut sparks interest, can AI company earnings withstand market valuation scrutiny? This week, global markets will see the release of the latest U.S. non-farm employment data, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, and a new round of concentrated U.S. corporate earnings reports. On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non-farm payroll report. If July's job growth significantly exceeds expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise; if the labor market cools rapidly, market focus may shift from inflation back to economic growth risks. In terms of earnings reports, SpaceX will also release its first quarterly earnings report since going public after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday. Given the significant volatility in SpaceX's stock price post-IPO, this first earnings report will help investors assess whether the company's business model, profitability, and cash flow can support its high valuation. Additionally, earnings reports from Palantir, AMD, and SanDisk will serve as important windows for the market to gauge AI software demand and data center chip growth.

New York Fed President Williams: Current interest rate levels are in a good position, inflation is expected to start declining in the second half of the year. In an interview, Williams stated, "My personal prediction is that inflation will decline in the second half of this year and will further decrease next year." He added, "I believe that the current position of monetary policy is very suitable to support this path of declining inflation." Williams indicated that if inflation does not meet expectations, the Federal Reserve may need to take action. He stated, "If the trajectory of economic development does not lead to inflation returning to the 2% target level, then in my view, it is absolutely appropriate for the Federal Reserve to take action to ensure the economy returns to a path that can bring inflation down to 2%." Wall Street Giants: The Most Intense Sell-off in U.S. Stocks May Be Over, but "Bottom Fishing" Still Carries Risks. After a month of intense fluctuations, the U.S. stock market stands at a critical crossroads. On one hand, data from institutions like JP Morgan indicates that the months-long deleveraging process in the tech sector is nearing its end, with leveraged ETFs, hedge fund net exposures, and CTA positions significantly retreating from extreme levels. On the other hand, inflation concerns are resurfacing, the path of interest rates is fraught with uncertainty, and doubts about the returns on AI capital expenditures remain unresolved. Macro risks are replacing position clearing as the core driving force behind market pricing. As August approaches, major Wall Street firms like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Société Générale are releasing strategy reports that outline a complex picture of "deleveraging nearing its end, valuations becoming reasonable again, but macro risks still accumulating." For example, Goldman Sachs' top trading team warns that although the deleveraging process is nearing its end, risks have not been completely cleared, and multiple key events will continue to suppress the market; constrained by seasonal fund outflows and insufficient institutional offensive willingness, the upward momentum of U.S. stocks in August lacks "fuel."

Farewell to Mindless Surge! U.S. Stock Earnings Season Shows Extreme Divergence, Wall Street Consensus: AI Investment Enters "Verification Phase," Only Profits Can Weather the Storm. As the second quarter earnings season of 2026 comes to a close, global investors are undergoing a cognitive reshaping: the narrative of artificial intelligence (AI) is far from over, but the widespread surge akin to "flying pigs" is no longer present. Faced with substantial real monetary investments from companies, the market is beginning to vote with its feet, strictly distinguishing between "burning cash" and "collecting rent." Nevertheless, some major Wall Street firms, represented by Goldman Sachs, believe that the current volatility in the AI sector does not signify the beginning of a market collapse; rather, it is a normal consolidation supported by strong long-term profits. Notably, the forces supporting the market are expanding from a single AI winner to a broader base, providing a thicker safety cushion for the current bull market. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the equal-weighted index of the S&P 500, which measures market breadth, continues to rise steadily with improving earnings expectations, indicating that even without the significant push from a few tech giants, the broader corporate fundamentals remain healthy.

International Oil Prices Plunge! Trump Halts Military Action Against Iran and Initiates Negotiations, OPEC+ Announces Production Increase. President Trump announced the cancellation of large-scale military attacks against Iran and stated that negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz are about to resume. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a slight production increase of about 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, officially completing a gradual rollback of voluntary production cuts since last year. Under the dual expectations of geopolitical easing signals and normalization of supply, market panic has suddenly cooled. However, on August 3 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that Iran is currently not in talks with the U.S. Iran is in dialogue with Oman, with topics involving the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei also stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not change significantly as long as the U.S. continues to violate the ceasefire agreement and memorandum of understanding.

Individual Stock News

U.S. Tech Stocks Mixed Before Market Open. On Monday, before the market opened, as of the time of writing, all of the "Seven Giants of U.S. Stocks" except Nvidia (NVDA.US) were up; SpaceX (SPCX.US), Intel (INTC.US), and AMD (AMD.US) fell nearly 2%; Storage chip stocks fell before the market - SK Hynix (SKHY.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US), and Seagate Technology (STX.US) dropped over 3%, while Western Digital (WDC.US) fell nearly 3%; most optical communication stocks declined - AXT Inc (AXTI.US) fell nearly 5%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US) dropped nearly 3%, and Coherent (COHR.US) and Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell over 2%.

Is Tesla (TSLA.US) divesting its China business to merge with SpaceX (SPCX.US)? Musk denies: never discussed, purely "absurd fake news." Tesla CEO Elon Musk denied reports that the electric vehicle giant is considering selling its China business. Earlier reports suggested that selling the China business could pave the way for a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. It was reported that Tesla executives had been asked to prepare for a separation from the China business, with possible options including spinning off the China business for an IPO or shutting it down. Musk denied the related reports, stating, "This has never come up in any discussions." He later called the report "absurd fake news" and urged people to "assume news is false until proven true."

AI "manufactured" flood of vulnerabilities overwhelms review chain, Apple (AAPL.US) sets limits to cope with wave of false reports, cybersecurity cost alarm rings. Apple is limiting the number of security vulnerabilities that external researchers can submit at one time, after a surge in AI-generated reports overwhelmed its review process. This phenomenon highlights the new challenges the software industry faces as artificial intelligence accelerates both cyber defense and cyber attacks. The tech giant stated that after its security team was inundated with a large number of so-called AI-generated reports—many of which identified vulnerabilities that do not actually exist—it introduced new restrictions in June. Researchers can now only submit a limited number of open reports before applying for a higher quota, while Apple is using AI internally to help prioritize the reports received.

Reshaping the global pharmaceutical landscape! AstraZeneca (AZN.US) plans to acquire Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.US), potentially creating the largest pharmaceutical merger in history. According to insiders, AstraZeneca has begun discussions to acquire Bristol Myers Squibb. If this mega-deal is reached, it would create one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. AstraZeneca is pushing towards an ambitious goal of $80 billion in sales by 2030 and hopes to enter the lucrative weight loss market with several drugs in development. Bristol Myers Squibb, with a market capitalization of $133.4 billion, could provide AstraZeneca with a larger foothold in the U.S. market. However, a Mizuho analyst believes that investors may oppose the merger idea, as AstraZeneca's earnings per share are expected to grow by 10% or more over the next five years, while Bristol Myers Squibb's earnings per share may decline for the remainder of this decade. As of the time of publication, on Monday before the U.S. stock market opened, AstraZeneca fell over 4%, while Bristol Myers Squibb rose over 6% AI Data Center + Electrical Infrastructure Demand Heats Up, Prysmian Acquires Atkore (ATKR.US) for $3.8 Billion. Italian cable giant Prysmian SpA announced on Monday that it has reached a cash acquisition agreement to acquire American electrical manufacturing company Atkore. According to the agreement, Prysmian will acquire Atkore, headquartered in Harvey, Illinois, at a price of $95 per share, corresponding to an enterprise value of approximately $3.8 billion. Atkore primarily produces various products and systems used for electrical wiring and protection. This acquisition is the latest step in Prysmian's expansion strategy in the U.S. market, headquartered in Milan. As of the time of publication, Atkore's stock surged over 27% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing Time 22:00 U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday Morning: Palantir (PLTR.US), ON Semiconductor (ON.US), Snap (SNAP.US)

Tuesday Pre-Market: Toyota (TM.US), BP (BP.US), HSBC (HSBC.US), McDonald's (MCD.US), Merck (MRK.US), Caterpillar (CAT.US), Pfizer (PFE.US)