---
title: "Earnings Preview | After the most expensive IPO in history, Starship, Starlink, and AI computing power, who can save SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294765136.md"
description: "SpaceX will release its first post-IPO financial report after the US stock market closes on August 4. Previously, its stock price halved, and its market value evaporated by over $500 billion to $1.5 trillion. On August 6, a large number of restricted shares will be unlocked, increasing the circulating shares by about 20%. Coupled with 32% of the circulating shares being shorted, the market faces intense long and short battles, and the performance of the financial report will test its business model and affect investor confidence"
datetime: "2026-08-04T03:44:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294765136.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294765136.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294765136.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Earnings Preview | After the most expensive IPO in history, Starship, Starlink, and AI computing power, who can save SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation?

According to Zhitong Finance APP, after experiencing a brutal sell-off that halved its stock price and evaporated over $500 billion in market value post-IPO, SpaceX (SPCX.US), owned by Elon Musk, will release its first earnings report as a public company after the market closes on August 4 (Tuesday) Eastern Time.

This financial report is not only a test of its extremely cash-burning business model but also a significant showdown between bulls and bears against the backdrop of an impending wave of lock-up expirations and a sharp rise in short-selling pressure, which is crucial for market sentiment.

**The most expensive "break": $500 billion in market value evaporated**

Since its debut on Nasdaq at a price of $150 on June 12, SpaceX briefly surged to an intraday historical high of $225.64 before entering a free fall for several weeks. On Monday, the company's stock price hit a historical low; although it rebounded and closed higher, its market value has fallen to $1.5 trillion, with approximately $500 billion evaporated since its peak. As of Monday's close, the stock was only at $114.53, nearly a 50% drop from its historical high.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260804/1785814003546520.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

This dire situation has reminded Wall Street of the predicament during Facebook's IPO in 2012, but the scale is entirely incomparable. Facebook's total market value on its first day of trading was about $100 billion, which is merely one-fifth of the market value SpaceX has lost since its peak.

More challenging is that on August 6, SpaceX will face its first large-scale lock-up expiration. At that time, approximately 91.5 million internal shares will gain the right to trade freely, meaning the float will increase by about 20% instantly.

Cory Johnson of Epistrophy Capital pointed out that this batch of unlocked shares is about three times the current tradable float. Against the backdrop of a continuously declining stock price, the potential cash-out impulse from early investors becomes a Damocles sword hanging over the bulls.

**32% of float shares are shorted, options hide mysteries**

In the face of the stock price's cliff-like decline, short sellers are enjoying a feast. According to financial analytics firm S3 Partners, as of last Friday, short sellers have realized paper profits of about $8.3 billion on SpaceX since its IPO. Currently, SpaceX's nominal short position has climbed to about $24.2 billion, accounting for 32.2% of its float, exceeding the short scale of Musk's other company, Tesla (TSLA.US), in dollar terms.

Matthew Unterman, research director at S3 Partners, stated that this is one of the most aggressive and rapidly established short positions he has seen before the first earnings report of a mega-cap stock post-IPO.

In the options market, a more bizarre game is unfolding. Data shows that for options expiring on August 7, the open interest for call options is 656,309 contracts, while put options stand at only 199,910 contracts, indicating an overwhelmingly bullish sentiment on the surface However, what is most striking is that call options with a strike price as high as $330 have accumulated a terrifying position of over 450,000 contracts—this price is exactly three times the current stock price. Market veterans interpret this as not merely a bullish bet, but more likely a large number of shorts buying deep out-of-the-money call options to hedge against "short squeeze" risks. If the earnings report unexpectedly brings good news leading to a surge in stock price, these cheap options can provide the last line of risk protection for the shorts.

Looking at the longer-term options curve, the position distribution appears more balanced. In the far-month contracts, the open interest for call options is 1,907,393 contracts, while for put options it is 1,856,722 contracts, totaling 3,764,115 contracts, with the put-call ratio rising to 0.97, approaching neutral levels.

According to the pricing of the options parity straddle, the market expects SpaceX's volatility after the earnings report to reach as high as 14%, corresponding to a stock price fluctuation range of approximately $94 to $126.

**Earnings Report "Microscope": Revenue Surge Cannot Hide Huge Cash Burn Black Hole**

Returning to the fundamentals, Wall Street's current expectations for SpaceX's second quarter show a contradiction: expected revenue will reach about $6.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of as much as 67%, indicating strong growth momentum; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around $2 billion.

However, the profit and loss statement presents a different picture. The market estimates that the company will report a loss of $0.23 per share. What makes investors even more anxious is its cash-burning ability. Currently, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is an astonishing 70 times, with the company burning billions of dollars each quarter, and its debt is nearly twice the cash it holds. Consensus data from Visible Alpha shows that SpaceX's capital expenditures are expected to soar from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in the fiscal year 2028, with debt expected to balloon from $41.7 billion to over $218 billion during the same period.

In the upcoming earnings report, in addition to the usual Starlink user numbers (expected to reach 12.07 million by the end of Q2) and satellite deployment progress (the number of satellites is expected to exceed 10,000), capital expenditures and AI monetization pathways will become the core questions for management. In February of this year, SpaceX completed a merger with Musk's xAI and announced the acquisition of the AI programming startup Cursor (with a transaction value of $60 billion), aiming to build an AI empire that can compete with Google (GOOGL.US) and OpenAI.

However, this also means endless hardware investments. The self-developed AI large model Grok and the construction of the space computing center require a massive amount of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) processors, and the company faces serious semiconductor resource shortages and regulatory approval obstacles.

Fortunately, computing power leasing has begun to "recover": the company has signed a large AI computing power leasing deal with Google Cloud that brings in $920 million in monthly revenue, and is leasing computing power from its large data center "Colossus 1" in Memphis to companies like Anthropic and Reflection AI. Whether this new revenue source can validate the feasibility of its profit model in this earnings report will determine whether long-term funds are willing to "bottom fish" here Cantor Fitzgerald analysts stated: "We believe that as SpaceX proves the profitability of its managed computing business, clarifies the geographical distribution of capital financing, and clears the headwinds brought by the expiration of the initial lock-up period, the earnings report will significantly alleviate some pressure. We believe SpaceX's stock price is approaching the bottom and is expected to rebound."

**Betting on "Starship": Musk's Ultimate Narrative**

For most long-term bulls, all financial anxieties surrounding SpaceX will ultimately be answered by "Starship." As the next-generation fully reusable super heavy rocket, Starship not only carries the real mission of deploying more powerful V3 Starlink satellites and building orbital AI data centers but also serves as the transport vehicle for future Mars colonization.

In the 13th test flight on July 24, Starship's super heavy booster successfully separated but ultimately "hard landed" in the Gulf of Mexico due to a failure in reigniting some engines. This is still a step away from "perfect recovery." Musk has stated that the next flight (Flight 14) will attempt to capture Starship's upper stage using the launch tower's "chopsticks" mechanical arms. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu pointed out that even if only partial reusability is achieved, Starship already has the capability to deploy Starlink satellites.

Bernstein analysts believe that Starship is crucial for SpaceX to sustain its valuation. In a report to clients last Friday, the firm listed three other key issues that SpaceX needs to address: semiconductor supply, regulatory approval processes, and computing power reserves. In the process of building orbital data centers, SpaceX requires a massive number of processors for its data center satellites, and each Starship launch must obtain approval from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Additionally, after the company's merger with Musk's xAI in February, SpaceX, which aims to become a leader in the AI field, must continuously expand its computing power in a resource-constrained environment.

Nevertheless, Bernstein analysts still recommend "buying" the stock and set a target price of $239 ahead of the earnings report. The analysts wrote: "We believe the quarterly performance itself is not important; what matters is the level of confidence management shows in the company's growth path."

Finally, the intricate "Musk economic circle" also adds uncertainty to this earnings report. According to reports, Musk is actively promoting a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. Considering that SpaceX holds a large number of U.S. government and defense contracts, how to handle Tesla's massive business in China will become a tricky political and regulatory challenge, undoubtedly casting a shadow over the company's long-term governance structure

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**