SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) reports its first earnings as a public company after the bell today, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Polymarket gives the company just a 34% chance of beating earnings.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where Musk is so box-office that traders run two boards, one for the call and one solely for what comes out of the CEO’s mouth.

Analysts expect a loss of about 23 cents per share on revenue of roughly $6.9 billion. The combined company reported a $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion in revenue last year.

Analysts expect about $10.2 billion in AI capex, against roughly $1.42 billion in Starlink operating profit.

The stock closed Monday at $114.53, down 15% from its $135 IPO price and roughly half its June peak of $225.64.

What Traders Predict Musk Himself Will Say

“AI” is at 85%. How much SpaceX plans to spend on compute is Wall Street’s top question, and “Grok” follows at 84%.

Kalshi lists “Starlink” on neither board. The nearest proxy, “Satellite,” trades at 73% on Musk’s.

"Optimus" trades at 55%. Musk has said the first Starship to Mars would carry Tesla’s humanoid robots.

“Order of Magnitude,” Musk’s signature unit of measurement, sits at 43%. “Consciousness,” the word he uses to explain why the company exists, is at 30%. On SpaceX’s first public earnings call, traders expect less philosophy and more arithmetic.

What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Say

"Data Center" is at 92%. Colossus is no longer just the supercomputer behind Grok: SpaceX has turned it into a giant AI-infrastructure business, with Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI contracted to pay as much as $2.3 billion a month once their capacity fully ramps.

“Cursor” trades at 92%. SpaceX agreed in June to buy the AI coding firm for $60 billion in stock, with the deal expected to close this quarter.

“Moon” sits at 89%, ahead of “Mars” at 79%. Musk announced in February that SpaceX’s priority is now a permanent moon city, buildable in under a decade against 20-plus years for Mars. A year earlier he had dismissed the moon as “a distraction.”

"NASA" trades at 79% and "Artemis" at 64%. The agency awarded SpaceX $2.9 billion to develop the original Artemis lunar lander, but last fall opened the delayed mission to rival proposals, potentially giving Blue Origin a chance to replace it.

"Starmind" trades at 79%. The planned constellation of up to 1 million AI satellites anchors Musk’s pitch that data centers belong in space.

“Starbase” trades at 73%. SpaceX’s Texas launch site and headquarters hosts the next Starship flight, which Musk says will attempt the first-ever tower catch of the ship.

“Tesla” sits at 69%. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) spent part of its own call two weeks ago discussing the growing overlap between Musk’s companies, before he said he could not discuss combining them.

“Unlock / Lock Up” trades at only 65%. Thursday gives employees and early investors their first window to sell since the June IPO.

What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Skip

"Merge / Merger" trades at just 38% on the company board and 24% on Musk’s, days after The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a separation of the China business ahead of a potential merger with SpaceX.

Musk called the report "absurdly fake news." “China / Chinese” sits at 45%.

Reading the Board

A loss is expected. The bigger test comes Thursday, when lockups lift on 911.5 million insider and early-investor shares, versus roughly 639 million shares sold in the IPO.

At Monday’s close, the newly eligible block was worth about $104 billion. Whether Starlink’s profits can outweigh the selling pressure is the real question.

Image: Shutterstock

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