--- title: "SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294828512.md" description: "SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company, with analysts expecting a loss of ~23 cents per share on $6.9 billion revenue. The stock closed at $114.53, down 15% from IPO. Prediction markets focus on Musk's comments: high confidence in mentions of 'AI', 'Data Center', and 'Moon' over 'Mars'. Traders expect SpaceX to skip discussing a merger with Tesla. Key risks include upcoming lockup expirations for insider shares." datetime: "2026-08-04T12:51:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294828512.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294828512.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294828512.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say? **Elon Musk’s** **SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)** reports its first earnings as a public company after the bell today, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Polymarket gives the company just a 34% chance of beating earnings. The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where Musk is so box-office that traders run two boards, one for the call and one solely for what comes out of the CEO’s mouth. Analysts expect a loss of about 23 cents per share on revenue of roughly $6.9 billion. The combined company reported a $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion in revenue last year. Analysts expect about $10.2 billion in AI capex, against roughly $1.42 billion in Starlink operating profit. The stock closed Monday at $114.53, down 15% from its $135 IPO price and roughly half its June peak of $225.64. ## What Traders Predict Musk Himself Will Say “AI” is at 85%. How much SpaceX plans to spend on compute is Wall Street’s top question, and “Grok” follows at 84%. Kalshi lists “Starlink” on neither board. The nearest proxy, “Satellite,” trades at 73% on Musk’s. "Optimus" trades at 55%. Musk has said the first Starship to Mars would carry Tesla’s humanoid robots. “Order of Magnitude,” Musk’s signature unit of measurement, sits at 43%. “Consciousness,” the word he uses to explain why the company exists, is at 30%. On SpaceX’s first public earnings call, traders expect less philosophy and more arithmetic. ## What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Say "Data Center" is at 92%. Colossus is no longer just the supercomputer behind Grok: SpaceX has turned it into a giant AI-infrastructure business, with Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI contracted to pay as much as $2.3 billion a month once their capacity fully ramps. “Cursor” trades at 92%. SpaceX agreed in June to buy the AI coding firm for $60 billion in stock, with the deal expected to close this quarter. “Moon” sits at 89%, ahead of “Mars” at 79%. Musk announced in February that SpaceX’s priority is now a permanent moon city, buildable in under a decade against 20-plus years for Mars. A year earlier he had dismissed the moon as “a distraction.” "NASA" trades at 79% and "Artemis" at 64%. The agency awarded SpaceX $2.9 billion to develop the original Artemis lunar lander, but last fall opened the delayed mission to rival proposals, potentially giving Blue Origin a chance to replace it. "Starmind" trades at 79%. The planned constellation of up to 1 million AI satellites anchors Musk’s pitch that data centers belong in space. “Starbase” trades at 73%. SpaceX’s Texas launch site and headquarters hosts the next Starship flight, which Musk says will attempt the first-ever tower catch of the ship. “Tesla” sits at 69%. **Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)** spent part of its own call two weeks ago discussing the growing overlap between Musk’s companies, before he said he could not discuss combining them. “Unlock / Lock Up” trades at only 65%. Thursday gives employees and early investors their first window to sell since the June IPO. ## What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Skip "Merge / Merger" trades at just 38% on the company board and 24% on Musk’s, days after The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a separation of the China business ahead of a potential merger with SpaceX. Musk called the report "absurdly fake news." “China / Chinese” sits at 45%. ## Reading the Board A loss is expected. The bigger test comes Thursday, when lockups lift on 911.5 million insider and early-investor shares, versus roughly 639 million shares sold in the IPO. At Monday’s close, the newly eligible block was worth about $104 billion. Whether Starlink’s profits can outweigh the selling pressure is the real question. *Image: Shutterstock* *Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.* ### Related Stocks - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [SPCF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCF.US.md) - [SPAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPAL.US.md) - [SNK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNK.US.md) - [SSPC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSPC.US.md) - [SPCU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCU.US.md) - [LOFF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LOFF.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [SpaceX Stock Rises. Analyst Sets $220 Target With 49% Upside](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298356529.md) - [SpaceX Bull Case 'Rests Almost Entirely' on Starship Reuse. Analyst Says Buy Anyway](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298340634.md) - [SpaceX Was ‘Nowhere’ in AI 6 Months Ago — Now It’s an Anthropic Rival After the $60 Billion Cursor Deal, Says Oppenheimer](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297900623.md) - [Besxar is building an orbital semiconductor factory, one SpaceX rocket at a time](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298458904.md) - [Starlink’s Memphis Discounts add over 2,000 New Customers](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298061566.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**