--- title: "Musk on Memory: \"Supply up 20%, demand up 200%, prices naturally rise\"! Goldman Sachs Korea trader: Is the market pricing in losses for Samsung in 2027?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294901977.md" description: "At SpaceX's Q2 earnings call, Musk stated bluntly that memory supply is growing by about 20% annually while demand is surging by 200%, making price increases a basic economic law. Goldman Sachs Seoul trader Justin Park subsequently cited this logic, pointing out that unless the market believes Samsung will incur losses in 2027, the downside for its current stock price is limited, with core support lying in its Book Value Per Share (BVPS)" datetime: "2026-08-05T02:55:34.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294901977.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294901977.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294901977.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Musk on Memory: "Supply up 20%, demand up 200%, prices naturally rise"! Goldman Sachs Korea trader: Is the market pricing in losses for Samsung in 2027? Musk rarely commented on the memory market during SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings conference call. He stated that memory supply grows by about 20% annually, but demand growth reaches 200% or even higher. With a severe imbalance between supply and demand, price increases are a fundamental principle of economics. Justin Park, a trader at Goldman Sachs' Seoul branch, promptly released a brief on August 5, quoting Musk directly and linking his comments to the current valuation of Samsung Electronics. Meanwhile, a report released by HSBC on August 3 revealed from another angle that the market pricing for Korean memory stocks has reached a surprisingly pessimistic level. ## What Musk Said: The Supply-Demand Scissors Gap Means Prices Have No Reason to Fall According to the transcript of SpaceX's earnings call, Musk shared his views on the core bottleneck in current AI infrastructure: > **Look at the output growth rates for logic chips and memory. You must always focus on the limiting factor. The current limiting factor is memory. Memory output grows by about 20% annually. For any large, mature industry, this is already an extremely fast rate. But ask yourself: Is demand also growing by only 20%? No, demand is growing by 200% annually, or even higher. When demand growth far outstrips supply, Economics 101 tells you: prices will rise, not fall.** Supply is the ceiling, and demand is the rocket. The scissors gap between the two determines the direction of prices. ## Goldman Sachs' Justin Park: How Low Must Samsung Fall to Hit Bottom? After citing Musk's views, Justin Park from Goldman Sachs' Seoul branch posed a direct question to the market: What expectations are currently implied by Samsung Electronics' stock price? His conclusion is: **Unless the market believes Samsung will incur losses in 2027, the downside for the current stock price is limited.** Justin Park emphasized that he continues to monitor Samsung Electronics' Book Value Per Share (BVPS) as a valuation support. The logic is that BVPS represents the floor of the company's book value. When the stock price approaches or even falls below this level, it implies that the market is pricing the company for "liquidation" rather than normal operations. In other words, if you do not believe Samsung will lose money, then the current price itself serves as a line of defense. ## HSBC: The Market Has "Completely Erased" AI from Samsung HSBC's analysis corroborates this extreme pessimism from another dimension. According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, HSBC's report on August 3 did not discuss "whether the P/E ratio is cheap," but instead worked backward: What long-term earnings expectations are currently implied by the stock price? The model was based on consensus earnings expectations for the next three years. After 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, it filtered out 15-year earnings trajectories that matched the current stock price. The results were startling: - The long-term trend EPS implied by Samsung Electronics' stock price has plummeted from **2 times** the approximate 2024 level to **0.8 times**. - This means the market believes that AI has not only failed to bring permanent earnings improvement to Samsung, but that the company may not even be able to maintain its pre-AI earnings levels. - Since the high in early June, Samsung's stock price has cumulatively fallen by about 25%. The market-implied earnings cycle has compressed from about 3.5 years to 2.5 years, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of EPS from the 3rd to the 9th year has dropped to approximately -35%, hitting a historic low. To summarize in one sentence: **The market is pricing Samsung as if AI never happened.** ## Capital Flows: The Most Intense Selling Pressure May Be Nearing Its End HSBC also pointed out positive changes in capital flows. Year-to-date, foreign investors have cumulatively net sold Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC totaling approximately **$150 billion**, with about **$60 billion** of that occurring since June alone. Previously, single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs, which amplified volatility, are rapidly deleveraging. The assets under management (AUM) for related products have dropped from about **$37 billion** at the end of June to **$12 billion**, and their share of trading volume on days of intense individual stock volatility has also declined significantly. HSBC believes that the most destructive mechanical selling pressure is weakening. However, the core issue has shifted: It is no longer about whether AI demand exists, but whether the current stock price has overly compressed the AI cycle into excessive pessimism. If AI demand continues to show resilience, there may be room for a re-correction of the long-term earnings assumptions currently implied by Korean memory stocks. ### Related Stocks - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [07347.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07347.HK.md) - [09347.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09347.HK.md) - [09747.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09747.HK.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) - [EWY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EWY.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [SPCF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCF.US.md) - [SPAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPAL.US.md) - [SNK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNK.US.md) - [SSPC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSPC.US.md) - [SPCU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCU.US.md) - [LOFF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LOFF.US.md) - [07747.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07747.HK.md) - [03121.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03121.HK.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00005.HK.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DTIW.SG.md) - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBA.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Elon Musk Denies SpaceX Sought to Buy AI Startup Cognition, Says Talks Only Centered on Grok](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296478283.md) - [Louisiana governor 'not concerned' about environmental impact of Gulf Coast SpaceX facility](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297083498.md) - [Trump bought shares in Elon Musk's SpaceX in June, financial disclosure shows](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296815446.md) - [Bernstein Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on SpaceX (SPCX)](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296602218.md) - [SpaceX and a new Trump order that could rewrite the next decade of launches](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296670980.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**