$100 Billion Unlock Wave Hits Tonight! SpaceX Faces First Cash-Out Day Since IPO; Break Issue Price May Extend Lock-up for 450 Million Shares

The largest insider cash-out window for SpaceX since its listing will open on Thursday, but persistently weak stock prices are compressing the actual value of this opportunity.

According to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a client report on Wednesday, this Stock Lifting involves approximately $100 billion worth of SpaceX shares, characterizing it as an entry opportunity to buy this "potential generational compounding asset." However, since SpaceX's stock price has currently suffered a Break Issue Price below the $135 IPO issue price, another batch of up to 455.8 million shares will remain locked due to triggering price clauses and cannot be sold in this window.

This marks the first time since the December 2025 IPO that SpaceX employees, early investors, and other insiders have had the opportunity to monetize their paper wealth. Weak stock performance has cast a shadow over this moment—SpaceX closed at $108.27 on Wednesday, a discount of over 19% from the IPO price, with the company's market capitalization having evaporated by more than $1 trillion from its peak.

First Cash-Out Window Opens, Mixed Feelings Among Insiders

On Thursday, up to 911.5 million Unlocked Shares held by SpaceX insiders will officially undergo Stock Lifting, specifically covering employees, early investors, and other related parties. This is the largest expansion of the Float since SpaceX went public.

Evan Mills, a financial advisor specializing in serving current and former SpaceX employees, told MarketWatch that Thursday represents "the first real opportunity to convert paper wealth into truly disposable cash." However, he also noted that for some employees, this is a "heavy moment"—while gaining a life-changing cash-out opportunity, they may also feel they are "abandoning the company's mission and vision."

Break Issue Price Triggers Clauses, 455 Million Shares Forced to Extend Lock-up

SpaceX has adopted a phased Stock Lifting mechanism different from traditional IPOs, rather than releasing all shares at once after the 180-day lock-up period expires. This design triggers additional protective clauses when stock performance is poor.

Since SpaceX's stock price failed to return to the $135 issue price from July 16 onwards, suffering a Break Issue Price, another batch of up to 455.8 million Unlocked Shares will remain locked.

According to the company's schedule, the next batch of Stock Lifting will occur on August 21, at which time approximately 7% of the Float will be released. SpaceX's overall 180-day lock-up period will expire in early December, while the extended lock-up period for CEO Elon Musk and certain specific shareholders will continue until June next year.

Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners, stated that the phased Stock Lifting design is reasonable. "If it were a cliff-like one-time unlock, an astonishing amount of potential selling pressure could emerge in the market simultaneously, where selling pressure triggers more selling pressure, creating a waterfall effect."

Float Expansion May Trigger Passive Buying

The direct impact of this Stock Lifting on the market is difficult to judge, but several analysts believe volatility will rise. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in a client report that he believes investors have already made "significant pre-positioning," which may somewhat mitigate the selling pressure brought by the unlock.

From a structural perspective, the Stock Lifting will significantly expand SpaceX's Float size. Anmuth pointed out that just this Thursday's batch of Unlocked Shares could more than double SpaceX's current Float, which accounts for only 5% of the total share capital.

The expansion of the Float will drive up the free-float market capitalization weight of SpaceX in major indices, thereby driving passive buying demand from passive investors. Lebenthal stated that this effect will not be immediate, but "eventually" hopes to offset the selling pressure from insiders.

Regarding the index adjustment schedule, the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), a subsidiary of Morningstar, stated that it will only adjust the company's Float data after the lock-up period ends; Nasdaq stated that it updates free-float factors quarterly, with the next adjustment taking effect on the third Friday of September.

Stock Price Under Continued Pressure, Employee Wealth Management Faces Challenges

Ben Rosbach, a wealth advisor at Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, told MarketWatch that stock price volatility has been the core topic of his communication with SpaceX employees since the SpaceX IPO. He expects that stock price volatility will continue as subsequent batches of locked shares undergo Stock Lifting.

SpaceX's stock price fell further amid investor disappointment following its first public earnings conference call. The current stock price is discounted by approximately 20% from the IPO price, representing a Break Issue Price, which not only compresses the actual cash-out gains for insiders but also puts more Unlocked Shares at risk of triggering extended lock-up clauses.