UBS: Congo Copper Concentrate Export Ban Expected to Have Limited Impact on ZIJIN MINING and CMOC

UBS published a research report stating that the Democratic Republic of the Congo's export ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate will have limited direct impact on global copper concentrate supply. The bank noted that the country had implemented similar bans in 2013, 2019 and 2023, but subsequently granted exemptions when domestic smelting capacity was insufficient. In addition, more than 85% of the country's copper exports are already shipped in refined or semi-refined form, leading UBS to believe the policy impact will be limited. For cobalt, China has not imported cobalt ore/concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo since November 2023, while the currently imported cobalt intermediate products are not covered by the policy, suggesting only minimal impact.

UBS expects the ban to have limited impact on ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) +0.840 (+2.380%) Short selling $910.43M; Ratio 22.163% and CMOC (03993.HK) +0.200 (+1.063%) Short selling $323.38M; Ratio 20.029% , while maintaining Buy ratings on both companies. Zijin's copper assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo mainly include the Kamoa-Kakula and Keluwazi projects. Zijin holds a 44.2% stake in the former, which produced 389,000 tonnes of copper last year. The on-site smelter with annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes commenced operations at the end of last year and can process most of the concentrate output. The latter project mainly produces blister copper, copper anodes and electrowon copper cathodes, which are not subject to concentrate export restrictions. As for CMOC, the main products of its TFM and KFM projects are copper cathodes and cobalt hydroxide, both processed products rather than concentrates, and are therefore unaffected by the ban.

UBS said the ban reflects a broader trend among resource-rich countries to retain more value domestically through downstream processing, similar to Indonesia's strategy of restricting copper concentrate exports to promote domestic smelting capacity. While the short-term impact on physical copper concentrate supply is limited, the move supports a medium- to long-term structural tightening in the copper concentrate market, further strengthening copper's long-term fundamentals as a strategic resource. (gc/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-08-06 16:25.)