---
title: "Market Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes Plunge Following US Non-Farm Payrolls and Inflation Data"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295722149.md"
description: "Following the July Fed decision and Waller's press conference, market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year (particularly in September) surged. However, after the recent slowdown in non-farm payrolls and CPI data, these expectations have dropped significantly. As shown in Figure 1, the market currently expects only one rate hike in 2026 (with no possibility of a second), nearly erasing the hawkish tilt that emerged after Waller's press conference; the decline in rate cut expectations is mainly reflected in September pricing (Figure 2)"
datetime: "2026-08-12T23:48:59.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295722149.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295722149.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295722149.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Market Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes Plunge Following US Non-Farm Payrolls and Inflation Data

Following the July Fed decision and Waller's press conference, market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year (particularly in September) surged.

After the recent slowdown in non-farm payrolls and CPI data, market expectations for rate hikes have dropped significantly.

As shown in Figure 1, the market currently expects only one rate hike in 2026 (with no possibility of a second), nearly erasing the hawkish tilt that emerged after Waller's press conference;

The decline in rate cut expectations is mainly reflected in September pricing (Figure 2).

## Related News & Research

- [Gold rises, with Middle East and Fed policy in focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298417307.md)
- [Strong jobs data puts crypto rally in doubt: Trump says, ‘BE PATRIOTS for a change’](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298124538.md)
- [AM Best Revises Outlooks to Stable for Members of Farm Bureau Property & Casualty Group](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298496677.md)
- [EWG: Double-digit revenue growth and digital platform adoption drive robust margins and returns](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298417346.md)
- [Getinge sees 2026 net sales up 3%-5% organically, excluding Surgical Perfusion](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298414678.md)

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**