Investors Bet on Doubling Valuation! Report: Anthropic Plans IPO at $2 Trillion Valuation, Potentially Becoming the Largest IPO in History

Anthropic is moving toward an unprecedented market milestone. Multiple investors expect the AI startup to go public this autumn with a valuation of $2 trillion or higher, surpassing SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history.

According to the Financial Times, six Anthropic shareholders told the media that the company's rapidly growing revenue will support more than a doubling of its current valuation in its planned autumn listing.

Investors expect that by the end of 2026, the maker of the Claude model will achieve annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion, representing more than a tenfold increase from early 2026. If this expectation is realized, it will bring billions of dollars in paper gains to early investors in the five-year-old company.

However, this record-breaking listing plan faces non-negligible variables: pressure from competitors continues to rise, and Anthropic's relationship with the U.S. government remains tense.

According to two informed investors, export controls imposed by the Department of Commerce on Anthropic's flagship models led to a slowdown in the company's overall revenue growth in June. Public market sentiment toward the AI boom is also becoming cautious, and whether the final pricing can support this valuation remains uncertain.

The Logic Behind the $2 Trillion Valuation: High Revenue Growth Is the Core Support

The core basis for Anthropic investors' bet on a high valuation lies in the company's extraordinary revenue growth rate.

Investors expect Anthropic's annualized revenue to grow more than tenfold in 2026, reaching $100 billion to $120 billion. This uses the company's customary annualized metric, which projects full-year sales based on recent actual performance.

"If Anthropic's annual growth rate reaches 800%, you would think that at a very low valuation multiple, they should be priced at least at 30 times revenue," one investor stated. "That implies a $3 trillion company."

Currently, listed companies seen as beneficiaries of AI—such as data intelligence company Palantir and cloud service provider Nebius—have price-to-sales ratios of approximately 55 times this year. Anthropic has no directly comparable listed peers in the U.S. stock market, but investors have built their own financial models based on this, deriving a valuation range higher than that of the aforementioned peers.

In May this year, Anthropic announced that its annualized revenue had exceeded $47 billion, and in June, it filed IPO application documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It is currently in a quiet period, with restrictions on public disclosure of financial performance.

Surpassing OpenAI, But Friction Exists with the U.S. Government

Anthropic made significant progress in the competitive landscape this year. The company continues to lead in model performance, sequentially releasing several new models that outperform competitors, while focusing its business efforts on sales to enterprise customers.

Venture capital firms, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors injected nearly $100 billion into the company in 2026. In May this year, Anthropic's valuation surpassed OpenAI for the first time, reaching $965 billion after accounting for the latest financing.

Data from payment data company Ramp shows that Anthropic's market share among U.S. enterprise customers increased last month.

However, challenges are also accumulating. Anthropic has had repeated frictions with the Trump administration and remains involved in litigation against the U.S. Department of Defense, which listed Anthropic as a supply chain risk earlier this year.

In June, the Department of Commerce imposed export controls on Anthropic, forcing it to temporarily remove its flagship models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, from the market, causing unease among some customers reliant on its products.

Cost Pressure and Competition Impact Pricing Space

Pricing is another important pressure point for Anthropic's business model.

According to data from AI model analysis firm Artificial Analysis, the usage cost of Anthropic's market-leading models is more than double that of OpenAI's flagship models, while open-source models with significantly improved performance this year cost only a fraction of the former.

Enterprise customers have become increasingly sensitive to the usage costs of optimal models. Ramp analysts pointed out that enterprises are "hitting the ceiling on AI spending" and turning to cheaper alternatives. Some companies have even withdrawn previous internal directives requiring employees to maximize the use of AI.

In response, an Anthropic investor who also holds shares in OpenAI and SpaceX stated: "Challenges are certainly easy to list, but the company consistently maintains the number one position in performance, market positioning, and the exposure sought by users." SpaceX completed its listing in June this year with a valuation of $1.77 trillion.