Tariff Expectations Drive Copper Flows to US as Prices Rise for Seventh Straight Week, Eyeing Record Highs; LME Spot Premium Hits Largest Since 2021
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Driven by expectations of Trump-era tariffs, a surge of copper has rushed into the US, tightening global supply. The LME copper spot premium briefly soared to $478 per tonne, the widest spread since the 2021 squeeze, while inventories fell to their lowest level since February. Three-month copper is currently trading at $14,368, up over 15% year-to-date and marking its seventh consecutive weekly gain, leaving it just shy of historical highs
Driven by expectations of tariff decisions from the Trump administration, large volumes of copper have continued to flow into the US, tightening supply in other global markets and sustaining strong price gains as copper approaches historical highs.
According to Bloomberg, the premium of LME copper spot contracts over three-month futures briefly widened to $478 per tonne, the largest spread since the major squeeze in 2021. This deep backwardation in the futures structure is a typical signal of tight near-term supply, indicating intensifying competition for immediate spot market availability.
Three-month copper is currently trading at $14,368 per tonne, up 1.47% from the previous session, just steps away from the intraday historical record of $14,527.50 set in late January. Copper prices have risen more than 15% cumulatively this year, posting gains for seven consecutive weeks.
Tariff Expectations Trigger Massive Metal Inflows to US
The core driver behind this round of copper price increases is market expectation of the Trump administration's copper tariff policies. To avoid potential tariff costs, traders and companies have rushed to ship large quantities of copper to the US, significantly reducing available supply in other parts of the world.
This trend is directly reflected in LME inventory data. LME-tracked copper inventories have now fallen to slightly above 200,000 tonnes, the lowest level since February this year. The continuous drawdown in inventories has further exacerbated supply pressure in the spot market, pushing the spot premium wider.
Spot Premium Hits Five-Year High, Signaling Clear Supply Tightness
The LME copper spot premium over three-month futures widened to $478 per tonne, a key indicator measuring the degree of near-term supply tightness. This level is the highest since 2021, when the market experienced a significant squeeze.
The deeply backwardated futures curve structure means market participants are willing to pay a substantial premium for immediately available physical copper, reflecting fierce competition for physical copper in the short term. For investors holding spot positions, this structure offers additional roll yield, further reinforcing bullish market sentiment.
Copper Prices Approach Historical Records, Up Over 15% Year-to-Date
Three-month copper is quoted at $14,331, only about $200 shy of the intraday historical high of $14,527.50 set in late January. After seven consecutive weeks of gains, copper prices have risen more than 15% year-to-date, and market expectations for a breakout to new historical records are heating up.
The continued tightening on the supply side, combined with uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, has provided solid support for copper prices. The key variables for future trends remain the timing and magnitude of the Trump administration's final tariff decisions, and whether these will trigger substantive adjustments in global copper flows.