--- title: "Gold, silver rebound in August, but analysts don’t expect a swift return to record highs" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296193412.md" description: "Gold and silver rebound up to 14% in August due to softer US data and Fed rate cut expectations. However, analysts like Vandana Bharti and Aamir Makda predict a choppy range rather than a swift return to record highs, citing resistance from speculative positioning and the need for actual rate cuts. They advise systematic buy-on-dips strategies over aggressive lump-sum buying, noting that ETF outflows reflect tactical profit-taking rather than lost interest." datetime: "2026-08-18T07:53:50.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296193412.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296193412.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296193412.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Gold, silver rebound in August, but analysts don’t expect a swift return to record highs Gold and silver prices have staged a strong comeback in August, gaining up to 14% so far this month, as softer-than-expected US inflation, employment and consumer activity data have strengthened expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve. However, analysts do not expect the rally to be a straight-line move or bullion to swiftly reclaim record highs. Instead, they expect gold and silver to trade in a choppy range with a positive bias in the near to medium term. Vandana Bharti, head of commodity research at SMC Global Securities, said precious metals have shown powerful momentum this month, supported by a combination of a weaker dollar, cooling inflation, robust over-the-counter and central bank buying, as well as improving ETF flows. “Seasonal physical demand across India and China alongside a sharp reversal into fresh Gold and Silver ETF inflows has reinforced market support,” she said. However, Bharti does not expect the recent surge to translate into an immediate retest of historic highs. “Retesting immediate historic highs in the coming days remains unlikely. The prior surge contained speculative positioning, suggesting that future upside will face heavy resistance,” she said, expecting domestic gold prices to remain capped near Rs 1.75 lakh per 10 grams and silver near Rs 3.20 lakh per kg through December 2026. At these levels, Bharti advises investors against aggressive lump-sum buying and instead favours a systematic buy-on-dips approach through rupee-cost averaging. Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking also sees significant resistance ahead. He puts the crucial resistance zone for gold at Rs 1.61 lakh-Rs 1.645 lakh, while for silver it is at Rs 2.55 lakh-Rs 2.68 lakh. For the rally to sustain, however, expectations of easier monetary policy will need to translate into actual rate cuts. **Gold & silver: why the rebound?** Makda said the recent rebound reflects a combination of changing macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical tensions and structural supply dynamics. Softer US inflation and weaker labour-market data have increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, while a weaker dollar has further supported bullion. Central bank purchases, particularly by the People's Bank of China, remain another structural source of demand. Silver has an additional tailwind from its industrial use, particularly in green technologies, while persistent supply constraints have kept the longer-term supply-demand equation supportive. But the rally cannot rely solely on expectations. “Actual rate reductions from central banks are needed rather than mere market expectations,” Makda said, adding that a stabilising or rebounding US dollar could raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and limit international buying. For silver, the outlook is also tied to global industrial activity. A slowdown in manufacturing and investment could weigh on industrial demand even as supply remains constrained. **ETF flows show profit-taking, not a loss of interest** Investment flows have been another important part of the bullion story. Gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a sharp moderation in monthly inflows in July, with inflows declining 55% in gold ETFs and 70% in silver ETFs, according to latest AMFI data. Makda sees this more as tactical profit-taking than a structural deterioration in investor interest. “This highlights a pattern of tactical profit-taking rather than a structural decline, supported by ongoing strategic accumulation from central banks and long-term investors,” he said. Bharti expects the near-term environment to remain volatile and cautions investors against chasing prices near technical ceilings. She recommended keeping Gold and Silver ETF exposure at around 10-15% of the overall portfolio and using a systematic buy-on-dips strategy. The broad setup, therefore, remains constructive for precious metals, but the easy part of the rebound may already be behind them. With key resistance levels approaching and the market having already priced in a sizeable portion of the rate-cut optimism, gold and silver may need fresh catalysts to decisively reclaim their record highs. ### Related Stocks - [PSLV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSLV.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [SLV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SLV.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [AGQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AGQ.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [SIVR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SIVR.US.md) - [GLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLL.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [SLVR.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SLVR.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Mapping the Market: More frustration for silver as lows beckon](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297765271.md) - [XAG/USD: Silver Tops $70 for First Time in 10 Weeks. 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