The market value of new nuclear power giants in the US stock market has evaporated by over $30 billion! SMR represents the future of nuclear power, but the $2.1 billion short interest raises alarms about valuation and delivery

According to reports from media citing data provider S3 Partners, the short-selling forces have gained over $2 billion in paper profits over the past year by shorting three leading companies in small modular reactor (SMR) technology—NuScale Power (SMR.US), Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE.US), and Oklo (OKLO.US). The stock prices of these companies, which were once hot amid an unprecedented AI infrastructure boom, have plummeted over the past year, resulting in a combined market value loss of over $30 billion for the three companies.

The significant profits for short-sellers undoubtedly pose a clear short-term negative sentiment and valuation challenge for emerging nuclear power leaders like Oklo, but this does not negate the long-term positive growth logic for the nuclear power industry brought about by the AI infrastructure boom. With short-sellers profiting approximately $2.1 billion, and with about 18% of the float of Oklo and NuScale still in a borrowed short position, it highlights that the market is shifting from the view that "AI needs efficient and clean nuclear power = all nuclear startups should be highly valued" to examining licensing, delivery processes, and the economics of each SMR unit.

From the perspective of underlying energy engineering, nuclear power supply, especially the SMR technology route, is indeed one of the most strategically valuable long-term power sources for the large-scale AI data centers being constructed. High-density AI GPU superclusters require stable power supply that is uninterrupted year-round, has a very high load factor, and meets strict power quality and environmental cleanliness standards. Nuclear power boasts a typical capacity factor of over 90%, extremely high fuel energy density, very low operational carbon emissions, and decades-long asset lifespan, which can reduce data centers' dependence on weather, natural gas pipelines, and long-distance transmission.

Compared to traditional gigawatt-level nuclear power, the SMR nuclear technology route theoretically allows for lower capital thresholds per project through factory prefabrication, passive safety, and modular expansion, enabling deployment at a pace that matches data centers' expansion from tens of megawatts to hundreds of megawatts, and construction close to load centers. However, these cost advantages only become valid after entering the "Nth unit of the same type" mass replication phase, with the first unit potentially being the most expensive.

Short-sellers earn over $2 billion, SMR valuation myth faces precise targeting by shorts

Adam Stein, director of nuclear innovation at the Breakthrough Institute, stated on Tuesday that the industry experienced a "textbook super hype cycle" last year, leading to the prices and valuations of these stocks being excessively inflated due to speculation.

In addition to S3 Partners showing that the short-selling forces of the three leading SMR companies have profited over $2 billion, another data analytics firm, S&P Global Market Intelligence, indicates that NuScale and Oklo currently have as much as 18% of their float in borrowed status—this is a typical alternative indicator for measuring the intensity of short-selling activity, while Nano has nearly 30% of its float in borrowed status.

In the coming weeks, a key test of investors' risk appetite for the nuclear power sector is expected to arrive, as two U.S. nuclear companies with small modular reactor businesses, Holtec International and Westinghouse, are anticipated to go public on the U.S. stock market Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and other large tech giants are increasingly turning to small modular reactor technology, which is still in its early stages of development, to meet the future large-scale demand for efficient and clean power in data centers. The Trump administration has also publicly supported the nuclear energy industry, promising to reduce cumbersome regulations and invest billions of dollars in building new reactors and restarting those old reactors that had been abandoned.

Under the current and long-term global trend of low carbon and complete decarbonization, nuclear energy, an efficient and stable clean energy source, has become the preferred energy choice for tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft in recent years. This energy, which combines cleanliness, stability, and efficiency, is expected to provide powerful, uninterrupted power support for their enormous data centers 24 hours a day. Therefore, the current support for nuclear energy and nuclear power plants from global politicians and tech companies may be stronger than at any time since the 1970s.

However, there is still uncertainty about when these emerging reactor technologies, which have not been fully validated, will be able to deliver on a large scale; some analysts have also expressed concerns about the shortage of high-assay low-enriched uranium supply— a special nuclear fuel required for small modular reactors.

In response to recent media reports, a representative from Nano stated in an email that fluctuations in the company's stock price do not adequately reflect the success of its underlying business and disputed the characterization of a "hype cycle." Oklo, on the other hand, stated that the company has made "multiple tangible and positive advancements" over the past year and expects its Aurora reactor to begin efficient commercial operations in 2028.

The end of AI is power, and the end of valuation is delivery! The market is shifting from chasing the SMR concept to verifying project progress, orders, and cash flow.

Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has signed a long-term agreement for up to 6.6 gigawatts with nuclear energy companies, including a collaboration with Oklo to develop a project in Ohio with a capacity of up to 1.2 gigawatts, with the first phase planned to be operational as early as 2030, proving that the demand from tech giants is real. However, demand contracts do not equate to reactors being approved and delivered on time.

The short-selling pressure is intense, stemming from a serious mismatch between the certainty of nuclear energy demand and the timing of profitability for SMR companies. There are currently no commercially operating SMRs in the U.S.; while Oklo has made key design and testing progress, the Aurora commercial reactor still needs to complete comprehensive licensing with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, construction, fuel qualification, and grid connection, leaving little room for delay in its 2028 target. Additionally, the three leading forces in small modular reactor technology have yet to prove the mass cost, construction period, and capacity factor of their first-of-a-kind reactors.

In the second quarter, Oklo achieved only about $1.21 million in revenue, with a net loss of approximately $48.54 million. Although it raised cash and securities to about $3.01 billion through a stock issuance, this also led to equity dilution. More critically, most advanced reactors rely on high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), and the U.S. Department of Energy has acknowledged that the domestic supply scale for commercialization is still insufficient. With constraints on fuel, nuclear-grade components, regulatory talent, and construction capacity, a one-year project delay could significantly depress the present value of future cash flows. Therefore, the logic of short-sellers focuses on "the market prematurely pricing in extreme valuations for dozens of SMR reactors," rather than the fundamentals of nuclear power SMR represents a crucial future technology route for nuclear power, but the high valuation bubble of emerging nuclear companies like Oklo before their sharp decline is more akin to high-volatility venture capital options rather than mature utility assets. Oklo's $3 billion short-term asset liquidity and its collaboration with Meta on SMR deployment significantly reduce short-term financing risks, but have not eliminated risks related to technology implementation, regulation, and construction; assessing Oklo's true value should not only consider orders with tech giants and the AI infrastructure process, but should continuously validate five milestones—commercial license, deliverable HALEU fuel, binding power purchase agreements with prepayment or credit support, capital costs and timelines for the first reactor, and the actual grid connection of the first Aurora