--- title: "Renowned Energy Analyst Jeff Currie: Wake Up, Folks, Commodities Are Sending a Signal" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296548050.md" description: "Diesel crack spreads break above $100 for the first time in history; gold surges 4% in a single day to $4,510; copper prices surpass $14,000... Former Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie issues an alert: fiscal intervention has \"cut the brake lines,\" and the resonance of supply bottlenecks, currency devaluation, and policy suppression is driving the structural commodities bull market into its most volatile phase. His conclusion is simple—\"Go long and fasten your seatbelts.\"" datetime: "2026-08-21T00:14:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296548050.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296548050.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296548050.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Renowned Energy Analyst Jeff Currie: Wake Up, Folks, Commodities Are Sending a Signal The commodities market is sending a signal that cannot be ignored: the structural bull market cycle has entered a new phase, and the volatility in the next stage will be even more intense. Jeff Currie, former Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs and current Co-Chairman of Abaxx Markets, warned in a thread of ten posts on social media platform X that **the convergence of three forces—physical market supply bottlenecks, currency devaluation, and policy intervention—is a typical characteristic of a structural commodities bull market cycle.** He wrote, "Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and the US Treasury confirmed it yesterday." He subsequently stated that he had established positions in gold, silver, and agricultural products. Market signals have become quite dense: diesel crack spreads broke through $100 per barrel for the first time, London copper prices rose above $14,000 per ton, gold climbed to $4,510 with a 4% gain in a single day, silver rose 5%, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index continued to rise, and the Quantix Commodities Index hit a record high. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a significant increase in the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks this week, causing the US dollar to weaken substantially and providing additional tailwinds for commodities. ## Fiscal Intervention Breaks Conventional Feedback Mechanisms Currie characterized the macroeconomic background of this round of commodity price increases as a systemic failure. He pointed out that just one day after the yield on 30-year US Treasuries touched 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a doubling of the long-term Treasury buyback scale, only two weeks after the release of the previous quarterly plan. In Currie's view, this is merely the latest in a series of interventions—preceded by the drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (with stocks falling below 300 million barrels), providing US dollar support for foreign holders in Japan and the Gulf region, and the first foreign exchange intervention on the euro and yen since 1998. More critically, these interventions have severed the normal self-correcting mechanisms of the commodities market. **Currie explained that under normal circumstances, soaring commodity prices would push up yields, thereby suppressing demand and achieving self-correction. However, current financial repression has "cut the brake lines": scarcity pushes up inflation, suppression policies prevent the market's normal reaction, and the lack of reaction further amplifies the scarcity premium.** He summarized this logic as: "Scarcity is repricing the numerator, while repression is devaluing the denominator." ## Record Diesel Crack Spreads, Physical Bottlenecks Fully Emerge Currie views the diesel market as the core to understanding this commodities bull market. **The diesel crack spread settled at $102.20 per barrel, breaking through $100 for the first time in history, which is four to six times the normal range, and has refreshed records five times in the past six trading sessions.** He pointed out that the root cause of this situation lies in the global shortage of refining capacity—continuous attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern facilities, and long-term underinvestment have collectively led to a decline in global refinery runs of approximately 5 million barrels per day. **Currie emphasized that diesel is the floor of the entire commodities system: "Every commodity is dirt plus diesel." Container shipping, agricultural machinery, railway locomotives, mining trucks, and fertilizer production all rely on diesel, and this energy input cost sets a price floor for almost all commodities, including metals and grains.** This also explains why the Quantix Commodities Index was able to hit a record high even while crude oil prices remained $30 below their peak. He warned that the transmission to trucking, food, and producer prices "has only just begun." ## Supply Bottlenecks Spread Globally, System Has No Redundancy Currie listed a series of synchronously tightening global supply nodes, arguing that these bottlenecks have exceeded the response capabilities of any policy tool in Washington. In terms of energy, the Strait of Hormuz has been constrained for six months, Red Sea shipping routes still require detours, Russian refining capacity continues to suffer blows, all three ports in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea are closed, and 97% of Azov-Black Sea export capacity is offline during the peak season. In agriculture, water levels in the Rhine River have dropped to historic lows due to heatwaves, the allowable draft depth in the Panama Canal has dropped to 47.5 feet, the US Department of Agriculture has lowered its estimate of US corn yield per acre to 180.7 bushels, ending stocks have been cut by 15%, and corn prices have risen 10% in a single week. Currie also pointed out that the NOAA predicts an 81% probability of a strong El Niño phenomenon by the end of the year, which will further exacerbate pressure through drought in Panama, weakened Asian monsoons, and a narrowing planting window in Brazil. **He concluded: "The system has no redundancy left."** ## Treasury Supply Pressure Intensifies Devaluation Logic Currie also pointed to the structural pressures in the US Treasury market, considering it another important support for the commodities bull market. Data shows that foreign holders reduced their holdings of US Treasuries in June, with Japan, China, and the UK leading the decline; the fiscal deficit in July reached $432 billion, interest expenditures touched $1.1 trillion, and the total size of US national debt is approaching $40 trillion. At the same time, bond issuances for massive AI capital expenditures are competing with Treasuries for the same pool of savings, while marginal buyers are waiting for higher yields to enter the market. Currie characterized the Treasury's buyback operation as "a managed, failed auction," believing that the bond market will gradually discover in the next six months what the physical market already knows. ## Conclusion: Go Long and Fasten Your Seatbelts Currie's final advice is straightforward. He believes that in an environment where the dual logics of scarcity and devaluation operate in parallel, commodities are the only asset class that can benefit from both ends simultaneously: **refined product markets, grains, and freight rates correspond to the scarcity logic, while gold corresponds to the devaluation logic.** **He concluded with a single sentence: "Go long and fasten your seatbelts: the next phase of the market will present higher volatility and higher highs across more markets."** ### Related Stocks - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [GLDW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDW.US.md) - [GLDI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDI.US.md) - [DBB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBB.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [GLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLL.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.AU.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Why is your gold waiting on a speech?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296733808.md) - [Thailand to discuss proposed taxes with gold association this week, Finance Minister says](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296736129.md) - [Commodity vessel transits through Strait of Hormuz fall to three-month low，data shows](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296852213.md) - [METALS-Copper falls as rising inventory weighs](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296733670.md) - [METALS-Copper edges lower on firmer dollar, uncertainty around U.S. rates](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296898014.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**