--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Most Tech Stocks Climb, Gold Approaches $4,600" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296612568.md" description: "On August 21st, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures rose together. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the cooling of inflation is the key to lowering US Treasury yields and suggested paying attention to moderate inflation data to enhance the Federal Reserve's confidence in maintaining interest rates. UBS raised its earnings forecast and target level for the S&P 500, optimistic about the continuation of the bull market, expecting EPS to reach $350 by 2026, with the target level raised to 8100 points" datetime: "2026-08-21T11:40:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296612568.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296612568.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296612568.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Most Tech Stocks Climb, Gold Approaches $4,600 ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of August 21 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.52%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.48%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.74%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260821/1787312162276459.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.20%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.20%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.31%. ![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260821/1787312165127188.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.44%, priced at $86.45 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.38%, priced at $93.42 per barrel. ![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260821/1787312171846430.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **The U.S. Treasury Department wants to spend money to save U.S. debt, Goldman Sachs offers a "prescription": cooling inflation is the key to breaking the deadlock.** Goldman Sachs strategist Friedrich Schapler pointed out in a report that if the underlying macro drivers are not changed, the impact of an expanded debt buyback plan will prove to be "relatively short-lived." Schapler believes that although the U.S. Treasury is doing everything possible to curb rising borrowing costs, cooling inflation remains the most convincing way to lower bond yields. Recent fundamental news, including disappointing retail sales data, disappointing employment data, and suppressed core inflation in July, while encouraging, still shows market pricing discrepancies. Schapler wrote in the report: "We believe that a sustained accumulation of moderate inflation data will increase confidence in the Federal Reserve maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged and shift risk appetite back, which is currently the clearest way to lower yields." **UBS raises S&P 500 earnings forecast, optimistic about the continuation of the bull market.** UBS has raised its earnings forecast and target level for the S&P 500 index, citing improved corporate earnings prospects and sustained market confidence in economic growth next year. The bank currently expects the S&P 500 index's earnings per share to be $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027, up from previous forecasts of $335 and $375, corresponding to growth rates of 25% and 14%, respectively. Meanwhile, the bank has raised its target level for the S&P 500 index to 8,100 points by December 2026 and 8,400 points by June 2027. The bank stated that this adjustment is mainly driven by better-than-expected earnings in the semiconductor, technology hardware, and energy sectors, but earnings expectations in almost all market sectors have been raised to varying degrees. UBS pointed out that the breadth of this market rally is continuing to expand, with exceptionally strong performance in the second quarter earnings season, and improving economic conditions in cyclical areas such as manufacturing activity and construction employment growth **Former Federal Reserve "Number Three": U.S. Stock Bubble May Burst Before the End of Next Year.** Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley pointed out that U.S. stock valuations are clearly in bubble territory. Once the AI investment cycle slows down, the earnings, profit margins, and financing logic currently supporting the stock market's rise may simultaneously reverse. He predicts that this round of bubble may burst before the end of 2027. Dudley noted that multiple indicators have revealed the high valuation of U.S. stocks, but he also emphasized that high valuation does not mean the bubble will burst immediately. Bubbles often continue to expand because rising asset prices stimulate investment and profit growth, reinforcing market participants' optimistic expectations. The risk is that this positive feedback may eventually reverse. The critical turning point comes from AI capital expenditure. Once the growth rate of AI capital expenditure declines, upstream "shovel sellers" will be the first to feel the pressure: demand growth slows, profit expectations decline, and profit margins may also contract, ultimately forming a "double blow" to valuation and earnings. **U.S. Treasury's "Debt Buying Pressure" Hurts the Dollar? Citigroup Significantly Lowers Dollar Three-Month Forecast, Advising Against Going Long Before Midterm Elections.** As the market gradually digests expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, midterm election factors, and news that the U.S. Treasury may increase its bond repurchase efforts, Citigroup's foreign exchange strategy team has recently turned bearish on the dollar's short-term outlook. Led by Daniel Tobon, Citigroup strategists in a research report on Thursday lowered their three-month dollar index forecast from 102.12 to 98.34. Citigroup had warned that the latest measures taken by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott P. Bessen to lower long-term borrowing costs are likely to come at the expense of a weaker dollar. Strategists stated: "The latest variable is that the U.S. Treasury recently announced it will double the repurchase scale before November. This adds new bearish factors for the dollar through two paths: first, lowering U.S. Treasury yields; second, raising market concerns about financial repression policies." **Gold Heads for Three Consecutive Weeks of Gains, New Bull Market Atmosphere Intensifies!** As of the time of writing, spot gold is up 1.70%, trading at about $4,597 per ounce, having briefly surpassed $4,600 per ounce during the day, and is expected to achieve three consecutive weeks of gains. For the price curve of this precious metal, it is benefiting from the U.S. government's repurchase of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, creating a "dual-path benefit" structure—earning from the opportunity cost of holding as risk-free yields decline, and earning from credit premiums when yields become uncontrollable. Regarding expectations for a new bull market in gold, the significant impact lies in changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve and U.S. government policy response functions: once investors believe that government authorities will prevent long-term financing costs from spiraling out of control with larger dollar injections, lower real interest rates, or more aggressive debt maturity management, the distribution of gold prices will show a clear upward bias under the continued depreciation of the dollar and the decline in risk-free yields for 10 years and longer. ## Individual Stock News **Most U.S. Tech Stocks Rise.** On Friday pre-market, optical communication stocks surged. As of the time of writing, Coherent (COHR.US), Lumentum (LITE.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), and Nokia (NOK.US) are up over 2%, while Credo Technology (CRDO.US) and Corning (GLW.US) are up nearly 2% Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) rose over 1%. The "seven giants of U.S. stocks" all rose, with increases below 2%; memory chip stocks also climbed, with SK Hynix (SKHY.US) up over 2%, and Micron Technology (MU.US), Seagate Technology (STX.US), and Western Digital (WDC.US) all rising over 1%. **Discount retail resilience highlighted! Ross Stores (ROST.US) raised its full-year profit forecast twice, with same-store sales achieving the longest consecutive increase in nearly five years.** Ross Stores raised its annual profit forecast for the second time this year, indicating that the company's growth momentum remains strong. The financial report shows that Ross Stores' second-quarter revenue reached $6.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, exceeding expectations by $140 million; earnings per share were $2.66, surpassing expectations by $0.71. Although the second-quarter earnings included approximately $0.60 per share in tariff refund gains, same-store sales still grew by 10%. This marks the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in same-store sales, a trend not seen in nearly five years. The company currently expects full-year earnings per share to be between $8.61 and $8.77, higher than the previous forecast of $7.50 to $7.74, and exceeding Wall Street expectations. The new median forecast represents a 31% increase from the previous year, the strongest growth rate since 2022. Ross Stores did not provide a forecast range for full-year same-store sales but expects a growth of 6% to 7% in the third quarter and 4% to 5% in the fourth quarter, both above analyst expectations. As of the time of writing, Ross Stores' stock rose over 8% in pre-market trading on Friday. **Up to $100 billion! Broadcom (AVGO.US) plans massive AI chip financing to compete with Nvidia (NVDA.US) for market dominance.** Broadcom is in talks with multiple lending institutions for a large-scale artificial intelligence chip financing plan, aiming to raise over $60 billion in debt to support AI companies like Anthropic in acquiring chips and data center infrastructure. According to insiders, if the subordinated debt portion currently under discussion is included, the total financing plan could reach up to $100 billion. This deal would become another mega transaction in the AI infrastructure financing boom. For Broadcom, this financing arrangement will also help expand its sales of AI chips and other data center equipment, further challenging Nvidia's leading position in the AI computing market. **SK Hynix (SKHY.US) reportedly plans to invest hundreds of trillions of won to build a factory in Japan, potentially setting a precedent for South Korean semiconductor investment in Japan.** Foreign media reported on Friday, citing industry sources, that SK Hynix is considering building a memory chip production facility in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, with an investment scale potentially reaching hundreds of trillions of won. SK Hynix's move aims to further expand capacity in response to the continued strong global demand for memory chips. In terms of investment scale, while this hundreds of trillions of won investment is substantial, it is relatively small compared to SK Hynix's investments in semiconductor industry clusters in Yongin and Hunan, which are in the hundreds of trillions of won range. Industry analysts believe that this factory will serve as a new overseas production base for SK Hynix, complementing the domestic industry cluster in South Korea If the plan is ultimately realized, it will become the first large-scale semiconductor manufacturing investment by South Korean chip manufacturers in Japan. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing time 21:45, U.S. August SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value ### Related Stocks - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SPYI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYI.US.md) - [JEPI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JEPI.US.md) - [XYLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XYLD.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.AU.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [COHR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COHR.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [ALAB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ALAB.US.md) - [NOK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NOK.US.md) - [CRDO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRDO.US.md) - [GLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLW.US.md) - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [STX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/STX.US.md) - [WDC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WDC.US.md) - [ROST.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ROST.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) - [NOA3.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NOA3.DE.md) - [WDCVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WDCVV.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [PRECIOUS-Gold drops after sharp gains as inflation concerns come to the fore](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296506502.md) - [Why is your gold waiting on a speech?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296733808.md) - [Career Prospects 2026: AI Is Transforming Finance – How Secure Is Your Job?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296574633.md) - [Shein targets Hong Kong market debut on September 1, sources say](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296562492.md) - [UBS Group beneficial stake in Soitec falls to 4.9%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296634228.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**