--- title: "Gold Breaks Through 200-Day Moving Average; Goldman Sachs Trading Desk Increases Long Position to 60%; Major Clients Bet on Silver Rising to $90 Within Three Months" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296662813.md" description: "Spot gold has risen approximately 15% since its July low, breaking through the 200-day moving average and returning to $4,600 per ounce. Long positions at the Goldman Sachs trading desk have risen to 60%. As demand for call options surges, dynamic hedging by market makers may further reinforce the positive feedback loop of \"buying as prices rise,\" amplifying the upside elasticity of gold prices. Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve policy are shifting dovish, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar. Coupled with central bank gold purchases and improved ETF demand, fundamental support for gold's rise continues to strengthen" datetime: "2026-08-22T02:22:31.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296662813.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296662813.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296662813.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Gold Breaks Through 200-Day Moving Average; Goldman Sachs Trading Desk Increases Long Position to 60%; Major Clients Bet on Silver Rising to $90 Within Three Months The rally in gold is accelerating. The Goldman Sachs trading desk has significantly increased its long exposure, and the combination of institutional capital and option hedging mechanisms is further amplifying the upside elasticity of gold prices. According to Goldman Sachs' latest report, **gold prices have risen approximately 15% since their mid-July low, reclaiming the 200-day moving average and breaking through $4,600 per ounce.** Meanwhile, macro funds accelerated their gold purchases this week, with trading concentrated in three- to six-month digital options and direct buying, betting on gold prices rising to between $4,800 and $5,500. **Long positions at the Goldman Sachs trading desk have currently risen to account for 60% of holdings.** Of even greater concern is that the options market is forming a potential "price amplifier." Goldman Sachs pointed out that after a surge in demand for call options, market makers need to continuously buy gold to hedge the sold options. Once gold prices approach concentrated strike prices, hedging buying pressure could further amplify the upward trend. Therefore, Lina Thomas, a gold analyst at Goldman Sachs, believes that the bank's previous forecast of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 faces "significant upside risk." At the same time, **the Goldman Sachs trading desk also observed that some major clients are betting on silver, with related digital options wagering that silver will rise to $90 per ounce within the next three months.** ## Options "Positive Feedback" Mechanism Intensifies Gold Volatility; Technical Breakout May Catalyze Trending Moves Goldman Sachs believes that a key change in the current gold market is that options demand is significantly enhancing the directionality of prices. **When investors heavily buy call options and market makers become the sellers, market makers need to continuously buy gold for dynamic hedging as gold prices rise. If gold prices further approach the strike prices of a large volume of options, hedging demand may be released in a concentrated manner, forming a positive feedback loop of "buying more as prices rise."** Conversely, if gold prices fall, market makers may unwind their hedged positions and sell gold, thereby amplifying the decline. This means that gold's sensitivity to directional shocks may be significantly higher than in the past. Goldman Sachs pointed out that gold prices have recently reclaimed the 200-day moving average. **Historical data shows that the last time gold prices broke through this key technical indicator, the subsequent cumulative gain reached 180%.** ## Fed Expectations Turn Dovish, Providing Further Boost to Gold Bulls Another important support for the rise in gold comes from changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Previously, market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Fed suppressed gold. With the July FOMC meeting keeping rates unchanged, and subsequently weaker employment and CPI data, expectations for rate hikes cooled significantly. Net speculative positions in COMEX gold began to rebound, and demand for gold ETFs also improved. **Goldman Sachs economists expect that as inflation continues to decline, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in 2026, creating conditions for investors to increase their gold allocations again.** Thomas believes that if inflows into gold ETFs recover as expected, while current high levels of call option holdings persist, dynamic hedging by market makers could further amplify the rise in gold prices. However, this mechanism also implies amplified downside risk. **If inflation unexpectedly rebounds and the market re-bets on rate hikes, the unwinding of hedges by market makers could trigger price corrections beyond normal levels.** ## Goldman Sachs Trading Desk: Gold Long Positions Are Not Yet Crowded Adam Gillard, a trader at Goldman Sachs, stated that he remains "very comfortable" holding long positions in gold, **primarily based on three supports: continued pressure on the U.S. dollar, renewed warming of central bank gold purchase demand, and the fact that overall market long positions are not yet significantly crowded.** From a trading flow perspective, gold-related transactions on the Goldman Sachs platform significantly increased in volume this week, concentrated mainly in three- to six-month digital options and direct buying, with target prices focused between $4,800 and $5,500. Gillard revealed that **the Goldman Sachs trading desk currently holds approximately 60% long positions, while also going long on gold volatility, skew, and Delta.** Silver is also beginning to attract capital attention. Gillard pointed out that historically, when gold prices are too high, some retail capital shifts to silver, which is relatively cheaper. This week, clients have already used digital options to bet on silver rising to $90 per ounce within the next three months. ## U.S. Treasury Repo Stabilizes Long-Term Rates; Weaker Dollar Could Further Push Up Gold Prices Goldman Sachs also views the movement of the U.S. dollar as an important variable in the rise of gold. In Goldman Sachs' view, **if the U.S. Treasury stabilizes long-term interest rates by expanding bond buybacks and adjusting issuance structures, some pressure may shift to the foreign exchange market, manifesting as a weaker U.S. dollar, thereby further supporting gold.** Meanwhile, global central bank gold purchases remain stable. Goldman Sachs believes that continuous central bank buying combined with the recovery in private investor ETF demand will jointly constitute the demand foundation for the medium- to long-term rise in gold. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs' previous gold price models were primarily based on factors such as central bank purchases and ETF demand, and did not fully account for the current high level of macro policy hedging option demand. 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