Goldman Sachs Significantly Raises Global Wafer Fab Equipment Spending Forecast: Memory and Advanced Foundry Become Main Engines

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for global wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending over the next three years, lifting its market size expectations for 2026 to 2028 to $150 billion, $218 billion, and $281 billion, respectively. This substantial upward revision, which significantly exceeds prior expectations, reflects an accelerating upward breakthrough in the semiconductor capital expenditure cycle.

According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research report released on August 23, 2026, that semiconductor capital expenditure data disclosed during the second-quarter earnings season generally exceeded expectations, coupled with more optimistic outlooks from equipment suppliers, jointly driving this significant forecast correction. Specifically, the expected year-over-year growth rate for WFE in 2026 was raised from 32% to 36%, for 2027 it jumped from 32% to 45%, and for 2028 it was significantly increased from 12% to 29%.

Goldman Sachs maintains its overall bullish stance on the semiconductor equipment sector. This upward revision has direct guiding significance for investors in the equipment sector, as higher capital expenditure expectations imply continuously improving order visibility for equipment manufacturers, suggesting that the industry's prosperity cycle is likely to extend through 2028.

Foundry: Taiwan Semiconductor Expansion Drives Surge in Advanced Process Equipment Demand

The report raised its WFE forecast for the foundry sector for 2026 to 2028 to $58 billion, $84 billion, and $109 billion, respectively, corresponding to year-over-year growth rates of 45%, 45%, and 30%. These figures represent a significant increase from the previously forecasted 30%, 30%, and 16%.

The primary driver is Taiwan Semiconductor. In this update, Goldman Sachs raised its annual capital expenditure forecast for Taiwan Semiconductor for 2026 to 2028 by $8 billion each year, citing higher-than-expected equipment investment intensity for the N2 process and sustained strong customer demand. The report noted that as the N2 process enters the mass production ramp-up phase in the coming quarters, momentum in foundry WFE will remain strong, with advanced logic processes serving as the core driver.

DRAM: HBM4 Migration and Capacity Expansion Drive Continuous Spending Increase

The upward revision in the DRAM sector is also notable. The report raised its DRAM WFE forecast for 2026 to 2028 to $48 billion, $72 billion, and $97 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 50%, 50%, and 35%. These are increases from the previously forecasted 45%, 45%, and 10%, with the most significant rise in growth expectations occurring in 2028.

Analyst Giuni Lee raised the average DRAM capital expenditure forecast for Samsung Electronics for 2026 to 2028 by 22% and for SK Hynix by 19%. Despite the substantial increase in overall industry spending, DRAM supply is expected to remain tight, with capacity constraints projected to persist through 2028. Node process migration and the upgrade to HBM4 are the core logics supporting this judgment.

NAND: Recent Focus on Upgrades and Retrofits, Tight Supply to Continue Until 2027

Compared to DRAM and foundry, the forecast adjustments for the NAND sector are more moderate and show some divergence. The report slightly adjusted the 2026 NAND WFE forecast from $11 billion to $11 billion (essentially flat), lowered the 2027 forecast from $17 billion to $15 billion, and raised the 2028 forecast from $20 billion to $22 billion.

Recent incremental spending in NAND will focus primarily on upgrades and retrofits rather than large-scale new capacity additions. This strategy is expected to keep supply tight through 2027. The acceleration in spending in 2028 reflects expectations for capacity expansion over a longer-term horizon.

Logic and Others: Intel Recovery and Terafab Project Bring Unexpected Incremental Growth

The upward revision in the Logic and Others sector is particularly prominent in the medium to long term. The report raised its Logic/Other WFE forecast for 2026 to 2028 to $34 billion, $47 billion, and $53 billion, respectively. The 2027 forecast represents a 34% increase from the previous $35 billion estimate, and the 2028 forecast is a 43% increase from the previous $37 billion estimate.

Two factors drive this upward revision: first, Intel's demand is better than expected, leading to an upward revision in related capital expenditure forecasts; second, the backend process and analog chip markets are recovering. Additionally, SpaceX and Tesla have committed a total of approximately $16.8 billion to the initial phase of the Terafab project. This related spending has been incorporated into the Logic/Other forecast, constituting an important source of incremental growth for this sub-sector in the medium term.