--- title: "There’s More to Consider, Says Investor About Sandisk Stock" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296795615.md" description: "Investor Florian Muller rates Sandisk (SNDK) as a Hold, questioning if AI has permanently reduced the cyclical nature of flash storage. While acknowledging strong revenue growth driven by AI demand, Muller argues that Sandisk lacks a distinct competitive advantage over the broader industry, making it difficult to justify concentrated exposure. He suggests diversified ETFs are preferable for capturing the sector trend without company-specific risk, contrasting with the market's Strong Buy consensus." datetime: "2026-08-24T13:20:52.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296795615.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296795615.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296795615.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # There’s More to Consider, Says Investor About Sandisk Stock **Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK)** has emerged as one of the major beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom, with soaring NAND flash prices and rapidly expanding storage demand driving exceptional revenue growth and pricing power. ### Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks High conviction on SNDK? Try Tradr's SNXX or SNDQ Yet the company remains part of an industry historically defined by severe boom-and-bust cycles. The big question is whether AI has fundamentally changed the economics of flash storage or whether the current surge will eventually give way to the same oversupply and downturns that have characterized the market in the past. That might be the big concern on investors’ minds, but investor Florian Muller argues that cyclicality is not the only unresolved issue surrounding Sandisk. “One key question is whether flash storage is still a commodity doomed to a bust cycle after the current boom,” the investor said. “The second one is whether we should bet on Sandisk being a leading provider in the long run.” Muller points out that NAND storage prices per gigabyte have continued to decline over the long term, even though prices have doubled or tripled over the past three years. The amount of storage being used has simultaneously risen substantially, meaning the cost of comparable storage has not increased as dramatically as the price-per-gigabyte figures suggest. Sandisk’s recent results nevertheless suggest that the industry has entered an extraordinary period. Revenue surged 372% year over year in the latest quarter and rose 51% sequentially, with roughly two-thirds of the sequential increase coming from pricing. Gross margins reached 85%, while the data-center business grew 14-fold vs. the year-ago period. Management argues that the shift toward inference and agentic AI is generating data at a scale that makes storage a strategic component rather than a simple commodity, potentially producing more durable cash flows. Muller accepts that Sandisk may become less cyclical, particularly given its long-term customer commitments. The company says its larger customer agreements average more than four years, while eight major customers have more than $90 billion in open contract value at floor pricing. However, Muller questions whether visibility over the next four years is sufficient evidence that Sandisk has permanently escaped the memory industry’s boom-and-bust pattern. The possibility that current demand and pricing eventually normalize remains unresolved. More importantly, Muller asks why investors should choose Sandisk if the underlying growth is primarily an industry-wide phenomenon. Sandisk estimates the storage market will exceed $300 billion in 2026 and approach $500 billion in 2027. Its own revenue forecasts broadly track those market projections, implying that the company expects to maintain, rather than significantly expand, its roughly 10%-12% market share. Muller therefore sees little evidence of a distinctive competitive advantage that would justify concentrating exposure in one company. The same issue makes Sandisk difficult to value with confidence. A simplified DCF can justify a share price around $1,600 if fiscal 2030 revenue reaches approximately $83 billion and the company sustains a 50% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. But that valuation effectively assumes the elevated 2030 earnings level becomes a permanent baseline. Muller believes there is not enough evidence to make that assumption. For Muller, the investment decision ultimately comes down to the distinction between an industry thesis and a company thesis. If AI has genuinely made memory and storage less cyclical, he argues that a diversified memory or storage ETF would provide exposure to that structural trend without the company-specific risk of Sandisk. As such, Muller rates SNDK stock a Hold (i.e., Neutral). (To watch Muller’s track record, click here) While two Street analysts join Muller on the sidelines, with an additional 14 Buys, the stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating. Going by the $2,203 average price target, a year from now shares will be changing hands for a 38% premium. 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