--- title: "Institutional Investors' Gold Futures Buying Hits Record Scale Over Past Three Weeks!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296840516.md" description: "Over the past three weeks, speculative funds have net bought $22.2 billion in gold futures, setting a nominal record high for over a decade, with net long positions at the 93rd percentile over a two-year period. Following the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond buybacks, gold prices surged nearly 6% in a single week. Both Goldman Sachs and UBS remain bullish on the medium-to-long-term outlook for gold but warn of risks from overheated short-term positioning, with the Jackson Hole meeting emerging as the key near-term variable. Prediction markets indicate the probability of gold reaching $5,000 within the year has exceeded 60%" datetime: "2026-08-25T00:42:42.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296840516.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296840516.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296840516.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Institutional Investors' Gold Futures Buying Hits Record Scale Over Past Three Weeks! Over the past three weeks, speculative buying has flooded the gold futures market on a scale that has drawn significant market attention. According to Robert Quinn, a trader on Goldman Sachs’ futures trading desk, citing the Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), managed money, other categories, and non-reportable positions collectively net bought **$22.2 billion** worth of gold futures between July 28 and August 18, marking the highest nominal amount in over a decade. This wave of buying consisted of two components: $13.6 billion from increased long positions and $8.6 billion from short covering. As of the reporting date, net long positions in gold had reached the **93rd percentile** within a two-year historical range. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs commodity strategists had previously informed clients that there were "significant upside risks" to their gold price target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. ## Three Types of Capital Enter the Market Simultaneously, CTAs Forced to Cover According to Goldman Sachs data, this buying spree was not driven by a single type of capital but involved simultaneous participation from three types of investors: - Managed Money: +$10.9 billion - Other Categories: +$8.5 billion - Non-Reportable: +$2.8 billion Robert Quinn pointed out that macroeconomic factors were the primary catalysts for this buying. The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting was dovish, coupled with moderate inflation and employment data, leading the market to lower expectations for multiple rate hikes in 2026. At the same time, long-end yields rose due to economic resilience, AI capital expenditures, fiscal pressures, and global spillover effects, steepening the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The increase in long positions by managed money and other categories showed a positive correlation with the U.S. 2-year to 30-year yield spread (2s30s). A clear shift also occurred among Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). The Goldman Sachs CTA model showed a sharp intensification of buy signals—previously, these systematic strategies held short positions in gold. As gold prices broke through key technical levels, they were forced to cover shorts, further amplifying upward momentum. ## Treasury Operations Ignite Rally, Gold Prices Jump Nearly 6% in a Week Between August 18 and 21, the market saw a new acceleration. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback program for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds, causing long-end yields to rise and the Treasury curve to retract—the 2s30s spread narrowed by 8 basis points in a single week. However, gold did not follow the pullback; instead, it **rose 5.9% in the week**, with spot gold (XAUUSD) breaking above $4,500 per ounce for the first time. According to Jonathan Garber, an S&T expert on UBS’s trading desk, in his Monday morning report, the Treasury’s move was interpreted by some market participants as an "attempt to influence long-end pricing and curve dynamics," triggering concerns about confidence in the U.S. dollar and strengthening demand for physical assets like gold. He wrote: **"Since the U.S. Treasury announcement, we have seen more buying emerge, and we expect gold to continue rising."** Total open interest in gold rose for several consecutive trading days during this period, accumulating an increase of **$8.9 billion**. August 19 (the day after the Treasury announcement) became the most concentrated trading day of the week, accounting for **27%** of the week’s electronic trading volume. Hedge funds executed **more than 30%** of their weekly trading volume on that day alone. ## UBS: Continuous ETF Inflows and Official Reserve Accumulation Provide Support Jonathan Garber stated in his report that the rise in gold was "primarily driven by the futures market rather than over-the-counter channels," with the Exchange for Physical (EFP) premium remaining high, indicating that futures positions contributed significantly to the market’s strength. He also noted that "this divergence explains why prices have risen sharply while client participation and OTC flows remain relatively uneven." However, UBS believes that ETF demand is currently one of the strongest supporting factors. Gold ETF holdings have rebounded to levels near the May 2026 highs, with buying remaining consistent throughout the rally, corroborating the price trend. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserve accumulation speed hit its fastest monthly record since 2023, indicating sustained demand from the official sector. In the lending and financing markets, positive signals also emerged from Asia: the gold trading premium in Singapore was higher than in the OTC market, with Asian clients borrowing London gold, extending lending demand across tenors from 1 to 18 months. ## Options Market Skews Bullish, But Short-Term Risks Cannot Be Ignored The structure of the options market has also shifted. Gold’s 3-month implied volatility has risen, and the 25-delta put/call skew has dropped to a five-month low, meaning call options have become more expensive relative to put options, indicating a significant increase in market demand for upside exposure. Furthermore, realized volatility has recently exceeded implied volatility, highlighting the rapid fluctuation characteristics of the spot market when driven by news. **\[Suggested Image: Chart of Gold 25-delta Put-Call Skew\]** However, Robert Quinn from Goldman Sachs explicitly warned of risks: the rapid accumulation of bullish sentiment means that the risk of tactical unwinding increases if negative catalysts emerge. He specifically highlighted Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s upcoming first public appearance at Jackson Hole—if Warsh signals a hawkish stance on inflation or expresses discomfort with recent market movements, it could trigger position reductions. UBS also advised staying on the sidelines after the sharp rise, expecting gold prices to consolidate around current levels and gradually form higher trading ranges rather than moving immediately in a unilateral upward direction. ## Prediction Markets: Probability of Reaching $5,000 Within the Year Exceeds 60% As gold prices continue to strengthen, odds in prediction markets are shifting rapidly. According to prediction market data, the market-implied probability of gold reaching **$5,000 per ounce** within the year jumped from **40%** a week ago to currently **over 60%**. UBS provided the following recent technical reference levels: - **Resistance Levels**: 4670, 4770, 4890 - **Support Levels**: 4520, 4380, 4305 ### Related Stocks - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [GLDW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDW.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [GS-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [GS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [GLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLL.US.md) - [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.AU.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Why is your gold waiting on a speech?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296733808.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold drops after sharp gains as inflation concerns come to the fore](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296506502.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold holds steady with Fed minutes in focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296310600.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold retreats as bond yields surge to highest levels in decades](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296241483.md) - [GRAPHIC-Gold shows early signs of reclaiming safe-haven appeal after Iran war selloff](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296127032.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**