---
title: "Albemarle’s Lithium Math Turns Brutal"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296946313.md"
description: "Albemarle (ALB) shares dropped as JPMorgan cut earnings estimates and lowered its price target to $140, citing weaker lithium prices. The bank reduced 2026 adjusted EBITDA by 14.4% and 2027 estimates by 18.4%, expecting lithium prices to remain in the low-$20/kg range. Additionally, production delays at the Greenbushes plant following a fire are expected to impact output until early 2027."
datetime: "2026-08-25T17:56:26.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296946313.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296946313.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296946313.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Albemarle’s Lithium Math Turns Brutal

**Albemarle Corp.** (NYSE:ALB) stock traded lower Tuesday as **JPMorgan** reduced its earnings estimates and price forecast for the lithium producer.

Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas maintained a Neutral rating and lowered the December 2027 price forecast to $140 from a previous December 2026 forecast of $160.

## Lower Lithium Prices Pressure Albemarle Outlook

JPMorgan cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 14.4% to $2.88 billion from $3.37 billion. It also reduced its 2027 estimate by 18.4% to $2.93 billion from $3.59 billion.

The firm lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings estimate to $12.05 per share from $14.20. Its 2027 estimate fell to $11.65 from $15.35.

The revisions reflect weaker lithium prices. China lithium carbonate prices averaged $24,810 per metric ton in the second quarter. However, they have averaged about $21,625 so far in the third quarter.

JPMorgan now expects lithium prices to remain in the low-$20-per-kilogram range. The firm previously modeled prices in the mid-$20 range. Each $1-per-kilogram change could affect Albemarle’s annual EBITDA by about $250 million.

## Third-Quarter Profit Expected to Fall

JPMorgan expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $668 million. That would fall from $858 million in the second quarter but rise from $226 million a year earlier.

The firm also expects lower quarterly lithium sales volume and a weaker product mix.

Meanwhile, Albemarle faces delays at the Greenbushes CGP3 plant following a June fire. The plant restarted Aug. 1, but JPMorgan now expects full production rates by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

The bank said Albemarle trades near its price forecast and carries a fair valuation for a high-quality but volatile lithium producer.

## Albemarle Price Action

**ALB Price Action:** Albemarle shares were down 5.16% at $134.21 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

*Photo via Shutterstock* 

 **Read Also: Trump’s $500 Million Critical Minerals Bet Puts These Lithium & Battery ETFs in Focus**

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## Related News & Research

- [Bank of New York Mellon Corp Takes $103.27 Million Position in Albemarle Corporation $ALB](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296872827.md)
- [Stock of the Day: Is This the Top for Albemarle?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296798894.md)
- [Albemarle names Max Hood chief accounting officer](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296604776.md)
- [Albemarle’s Blowout Quarter Shows Why Lithium Still Matters](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295330064.md)
- [48,950 Shares in Albemarle Corporation $ALB Acquired by Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296767047.md)

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**