I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Fundstrat's Tom Lee identifies three key hurdles for the S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000: July core PCE data, Nvidia's Q2 earnings, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. He anticipates positive outcomes supporting cooling inflation, AI trade conviction, and dovish Fed signals. Lee remains bullish on equities and crypto, favoring sectors like Mag Seven, industrials, and energy.
By Jules Rimmer
If PCE, Nvidia 2Q and Jackson Hole throw up no negative surprises, Tom Lee reckons the market should rally
Three hurdles for the market to clear this week, according to Tom Lee.
If the market can safely negotiate this week's three major clearing events, the S&P 500 benchmark should rally toward the 7,900 to 8,000 level, one closely followed strategist says.
Fundstrat's managing partner and research head, Tom Lee, says the three obstacles are the release Wednesday of the core personal consumption expenditure price index for July, Nvidia's second-quarter earnings announcement slated for release after the close Wednesday and finally the speech to be delivered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday.
Tom Lee
Lee declares, "We are not yet cautious as we see impressive market resilience while oil and rates are near highs."
Lee, a longstanding crypto bull, is also very positive on the prospects for ethereum ETH and bitcoin (BTCUSD), asserting that the former has assumed market leadership by dint of its strong 54% run since the start of the third quarter. Comparing this surge to previous breakouts for ethereum in May 2025 and November 2021, Lee finds both of those occasions proved to be launch points for sizable moves in subsequent months.
Lee also is chairman of the ethereum-buying company, BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).
What Lee is looking for from his three clearing events is, in each instance, confirmation of pre-existing trends. So, for example, with the PCE data, he expects it will endorse his view that inflation pressures are cooling. He anticipates Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings and outlook will reinforce conviction in the AI trade. Lastly, he thought the Fed was dovish in its August Federal Open Market Committee meeting and he reckons Warsh will double down on this at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Once this trifecta of possible market impediments has been sidestepped, Lee predicts the S&P 500 SPX can reach 7,900-8,000 by the end of August, from Tuesday's close of 7,677. Among the drivers of the market, Lee notes the Treasury buying long-dated bonds BX:TMUBMUSD30Y that he interprets as risk-on, Trump's personal endorsement of pro-crypto legislation, Wall Street tokenization and the AI trade in general and finally his conviction that the so-called crypto winter, a period of sustained underperformance, has ended.
Among the sectors that Lee favors are the Mag Seven MAGS, industrials XLI, energy XLE, basic materials XLB , financials XLF KRE and small caps IWM.
-Jules Rimmer
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08-26-26 0436ET