---
title: "T. Rowe Price Foresees 50% Odds of Fed Rate Hike in Sep"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/297587161.md"
description: "T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci maintains a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, noting the threshold has declined following Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. She suggests core inflation must slow significantly to justify holding rates steady. While maintaining a dovish medium-term outlook, Uruci emphasizes that short-term inflation progress will dictate immediate policy moves, potentially requiring multiple hikes if cooling is insufficient."
datetime: "2026-09-01T02:46:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/297587161.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297587161.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297587161.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# T. Rowe Price Foresees 50% Odds of Fed Rate Hike in Sep

After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the threshold for a Fed rate hike in September has visibly declined, T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci said.

She believed US core inflation may need to show a more visible slowdown, such as the MoM increment slowing to around 0.1%, before the Federal Open Market Committee would have stronger justification to keep interest rates unchanged.

Uruci had previously estimated the probability of a rate hike in September at around 50%. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, she still maintained a dovish medium-term interest rate outlook as inflation is expected to gradually ease. However, the actual path of future rate cuts or hikes may depend more on whether short-term inflation makes immediate progress, rather than on inflation trends accumulated over several months. 

If inflation does not cool quickly enough, Warsh may also need to implement more than one rate hike to further reinforce the Fed's policy credibility in combating inflation.

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**