--- title: "Prediction: Taiwan Semiconductor's Market Value Passes $3 Trillion Before 2029" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/298142425.md" description: "The article predicts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will surpass a $3 trillion market value before the end of 2028. Currently valued at approximately $2.2 trillion, TSMC would need to grow its earnings by about 14% annually to reach this milestone. This target is considered achievable given TSMC's strong recent performance, including a 77% surge in net income and guidance for over 40% revenue growth in 2026, driven by demand for leading-edge AI chip technologies." datetime: "2026-09-06T23:10:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/298142425.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298142425.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298142425.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Prediction: Taiwan Semiconductor's Market Value Passes $3 Trillion Before 2029 **Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing** (TSM +2.85%) is already worth about $2.2 trillion, with shares of the chip foundry trading at about $427 as of this writing. My prediction: The company's market value passes the $3 trillion mark before 2029. To be specific, that means sometime before the end of 2028, about two years and four months away. That may sound like a bold call. The stock would need to reach about $580 per share, about 21% above its 52-week high of $479. But the yearly return the milestone requires is more ordinary than it sounds. And it's a fraction of the pace TSMC's business is growing at today. ![A large red TSMC sign in front of the company's office building.](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzJiOTM5NjM0YmRjMTk0ODgzZTZjMjQzMjQ4YzUzZDJiMDNjZjg5YTgtMjAwMHgxMjAwLmpwZz93PTIwMDAmaD0xMjAwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Image source: TSMC. ## TSMC needs about 14% a year to get there Going from about $2.2 trillion to $3 trillion is a gain of about 35%. Spread over that stretch, it works out to about 14% compounded annually. For a business growing the way TSMC is right now, that isn't a high bar. I'm not assuming investors pay more for each dollar of TSMC's earnings than they do today, either. If the stock's price-to-earnings multiple simply holds steady, the share price should track earnings growth over time. In other words, earnings compounding at about 14% a year through 2028 could arguably get the company there on its own. ## A 40% year Highlighting how far ahead of that bar the business is running, TSMC's second-quarter revenue rose 36% year over year to NT$1.27 trillion ($40.2 billion in U.S. dollars), while net income surged 77%. Gross margin was 67.7%, a big step up from 58.6% a year before. And the momentum has carried into the second half of the year. July revenue rose about 45% year over year, putting revenue through the first seven months of 2026 up 37%. Management expects more of the same. Guidance calls for third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Against the year-ago quarter's $33.1 billion, the midpoint represents about 37% growth -- an acceleration from the second quarter's pace in dollar terms. In July, management also raised its full-year outlook to revenue growth slightly above 40% in U.S. dollar terms. "Moving into third quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, including the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology," said Wendell Huang, TSMC's chief financial officer, in the company's second-quarter earnings release. The company is spending like it expects the demand to last, too. Management now plans $60 billion to $64 billion of capital spending in 2026, up from its earlier budget, and it announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona to build several more leading-edge chip fabs and advanced packaging plants. ## What could go wrong? The main risk is concentration. High-performance computing accounted for 66% of TSMC's revenue in the second quarter, tying the company's growth closely to the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out. If the biggest spenders on AI infrastructure pull back, growth could slow quickly. Of course, margins could give back some ground, too. Gross margin guidance of 65% to 67% for the third quarter sits below the 67.7% the company just posted. If profitability drifts lower from here, earnings could grow more slowly than revenue does -- and it's earnings growth, not revenue growth, that has to average about 14%. Expand ![Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Stock Quote](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTS5wbmcmdz0xMjg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## NYSE: TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Premium Feature Moneyball Superscore 99/100 Today's Change (2.85%) $11.90 Current Price $428.91 ### Key Data Points Market Cap $2.2TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary. Day's Range $419.42 - $429.82 52wk Range $241.62 - $479.00 Volume 12.3M Avg Vol 13.1M Gross Margin 63.08% Dividend Yield 0.82% But the prediction can absorb a lot of deceleration. Say revenue growth halves to 20% in 2027, then halves again to 10% in 2028. Even that path compounds at about 15% a year over those two years, still above the requirement, assuming profit margins hold near current guidance and the price-to-earnings multiple stays put. And it leaves out the rest of 2026, when growth is running at about three times that pace. The scenario I take more seriously, however, is a market that changes its mind. If investors sour on AI infrastructure spending, they could pay less for each dollar of TSMC's earnings even while those earnings keep growing. A compressing price-to-earnings multiple would likely raise the bar on the business -- possibly well past 14% a year. Ultimately, though, a business guiding for revenue growth slightly above 40% this year clears a 14% hurdle with plenty of room to spare, even if growth fades hard through 2027 and 2028. I expect Taiwan Semiconductor's market value to top $3 trillion before the end of 2028. ### Related Stocks - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [TSMU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSMU.US.md) - [TSMG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSMG.US.md) - [TSMZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSMZ.US.md) - [TSMX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSMX.US.md) - [STSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/STSM.US.md) - [TMYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMYY.US.md) - [TSMY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSMY.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [SOXQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXQ.US.md) - [XSD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSD.US.md) - [PSI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSI.US.md) - [FTXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FTXL.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) CEO Che-Chia Wei Purchases 149 Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298446068.md) - [TSMC Q2 employee bonuses rise more than 50%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297431455.md) - [OpenAI says working with Samsung on next-generation chips, deepening cooperation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298405891.md) - [BUZZ-Street View: Broadcom's pipeline soothes AI spending doubts](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297905938.md) - [Broadcom (AVGO) Is Storming the AI Market. I'm Bullish](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298457941.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**