I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Bitcoin's macro identity is shifting, showing its highest correlation with gold since 2020 (+0.56) while decoupling from tech stocks and the US dollar. This trend reflects a tug-of-war between Treasury efforts to stabilize long-term yields, which benefits scarce assets, and the Fed's inflation fight, which keeps real yields high. Recent data, such as strong employment figures, have pressured Bitcoin by raising rate hike expectations, highlighting its sensitivity to macroeconomic forces regarding currency devaluation and interest rates.
The US Treasury is stabilizing long-term Treasury yields, while the Federal Reserve continues to combat inflation, placing Bitcoin in a tug-of-war between two opposing macroeconomic forces. September CPI data and interest rate decisions may disrupt this current balance. Introduction For a long time, the core investment logic for Bitcoin has been its scarcity as a non-sovereign currency asset, often compared to gold. However, it sometimes exhibits high-beta asset characteristics, being highly sensitive to liquidity, interest rates, and market risk appetite, similar to tech stocks. With the evolution of the macroeconomic environment and the structure of Bitcoin investors, the correlation between Bitcoin and various assets continues to change in different market cycles. This article will analyze how the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, stocks, and the US dollar shifts with market conditions; interpret the significance of the current high correlation between Bitcoin and gold; and explore how changes in real interest rates and recent macroeconomic data affect Bitcoin's performance. Historical Correlation Cycles of Bitcoin As analyzed in Coinmetrics' State of the Network Report No. 310, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets shifts with market cycles. At different stages, Bitcoin's price action may follow growth tech stocks or resemble a scarce alternative value store of value. The current market phase is particularly noteworthy: Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to +0.56, the highest level since 2020; while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the US dollar has fallen to near zero. This divergence indicates that the driving force behind Bitcoin's price movement is no longer primarily the beta attribute of tech stocks, but rather macroeconomic factors that also support gold. Recently, Bitcoin and gold have reacted in the same direction to similar market signals, including concerns about currency devaluation, sovereign debt, and the outlook for real yields.
Looking back at historical periods of high correlation between Bitcoin and gold helps understand the current environment. In 2020, at the beginning of the COVID-19 liquidity shock, Bitcoin and risk assets fell together; subsequently, the Federal Reserve's emergency easing and fiscal stimulus lowered yields, driving a simultaneous and significant rebound in both Bitcoin and gold.
In 2023, the collapse of several regional banks in the United States, coupled with the Federal Reserve's emergency liquidity tools, led to renewed market concerns about pressure on the financial system, and expectations of interest rate cuts began to become the main trading theme. The market repriced interest rate expectations, and both Bitcoin and gold benefited.
The current context combines some characteristics of the two periods mentioned above. Concerns about the US Treasury market have brought renewed attention to the long-term purchasing power of the US dollar, which is beneficial to scarce assets. However, unlike 2020, current real yields remain high, limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts. The increased correlation between Bitcoin and gold reflects this environment; and if interest rates continue to rise, Bitcoin will remain under pressure. The Special Features of This Market Trend: Behind the increased correlation between Bitcoin and gold lies a game between two opposing macroeconomic forces. The Treasury Department intervened to stabilize the long-term bond market, and the market continues to focus on government debt and the US dollar; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is still fighting inflation, and interest rates and real yields remain key variables determining Bitcoin's short-term direction. Expanded US Treasury Repurchase: After the US Treasury announced an increase in the scale of long-term bond repurchases to maintain market liquidity, Bitcoin and gold rose. This move lowered long-term yields and weakened the dollar, causing the market to refocus on fiscal deficits, debt issuance, and the long-term purchasing power of the dollar. While bond buybacks are not a direct stimulus, they reignited the logic of currency devaluation trading, benefiting scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin. The Fed's fight against inflation: The Fed faces the opposite pressure. Strong employment data coupled with inflation concerns means that high interest rates may persist longer, pushing up real yields and reducing the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell first after the release of the non-farm payroll data on September 4th, directly reflecting how a stronger-than-expected employment report quickly raises expectations of interest rate hikes and suppresses Bitcoin prices. Following the Jackson Hole meeting, the market repriced the probability of a September FOMC rate hike: within four hours, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike rose from 29% to 51%, while Bitcoin fell 1.8% during the same period. Bitcoin also experienced a sell-off in the initial period after the August non-farm payrolls report, and the market only digested the impact after rate hike expectations stabilized. Bitcoin's reaction to recent macroeconomic data is determined by real-time data on inflation and economic growth. Non-farm payrolls, CPI inflation data, and the FOMC interest rate decision will prompt the market to reassess the possibility of further tightening or easing. The chart below shows the median absolute value of Bitcoin's price fluctuations during various macroeconomic event windows from January 2025 to September 2026, compared to non-event periods. Only the magnitude of volatility is measured, not the direction of price movement. The employment report has the strongest immediate impact; Bitcoin volatility in the first 30 minutes after its release is twice that of normal periods. Core CPI fluctuated by 1.8 times within the same time window, and its impact lasted longer. Meanwhile, the FOMC decision itself fluctuated close to the benchmark level across both time dimensions. The latest non-farm payroll data on September 4th fully reflects the market's current sensitivity to employment data. August's non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. Within 30 minutes of the data release, Bitcoin fell by 2.32%, a fluctuation six times the typical 30-minute reaction level for non-farm payrolls. Macroeconomic data determines the initial direction of market movements. Perpetual contract open interest, funding rates, open interest, and liquidation volume can amplify or extend market trends. Within 30 minutes of the data release on September 4th, Bitcoin open interest decreased by 3%, and the ratio of long liquidation to short liquidation was approximately 5:1 (US$119 million vs. US$24 million). The CPI data to be released on September 11th is the most important indicator before the September FOMC meeting. Current interest rate hike expectations are at a delicate balance: overheated inflation data will strengthen the pressure for rate hikes; cooling inflation could provide breathing room for Bitcoin, gold, and overall risk assets. In conclusion, Bitcoin remains a core indicator of risk appetite in the crypto market. If the Federal Reserve's policy remains tight, Bitcoin, altcoins, and leveraged positions are likely to face pressure; conversely, if inflation falls and interest rate outcomes are favorable, it will drive up overall risk assets. However, Bitcoin is not the entirety of the digital asset industry. On-chain transactions, asset tokenization, settlement, and prediction markets are creating new sources of trading volume, fees, and liquidity, possessing independent adoption growth logics. Hyperliquid's continuous expansion into the stock and commodity perpetual contract market, the HIP-4 outcome prediction market, the initial launch of Robinhood Chain, and the continued growth in tokenized asset issuance all demonstrate that ecosystem growth has surpassed Bitcoin's single price movement. A loose interest rate environment can improve overall market liquidity and risk appetite. But even with macroeconomic pressures, demand for stablecoins, tokenized assets, on-chain settlement, and 24/7 trading infrastructure will continue to grow. Bitcoin can determine short-term market sentiment, but the digital asset industry has the potential to expand continuously through different macroeconomic cycles.