I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The US EIA raised its Brent crude forecast to $91/barrel and NY oil futures to $84.65, citing Middle East supply disruptions from Iran-US conflicts and declining global inventories. Consequently, international oil prices surged, with Brent breaking $100 and rising further this morning. Global inventories are expected to fall by 400 million barrels, with Middle East production outages increasing significantly.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that due to reduced Middle East supply caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the rapid decline in global inventories, it now forecasts the average spot price of Brent crude this year at around USD91 per barrel, nearly 5% higher than its previous estimate. The target price for New York oil futures this year was also raised by nearly 5% to USD84.65 per barrel.
Since the US and Iran launched attacks against each other last weekend, Brent crude prices have broken above USD100 per barrel. International oil prices closed more than 3% higher overnight (9th). This morning (10th), Brent crude and New York oil futures rose 0.65% and 1.02% respectively to USD101.89 and USD97.04 per barrel.
EIA estimated that global oil inventories have fallen by 400 million barrels this year and will continue to decline through year-end. Middle East crude oil production outages increased from 5 million barrels per day in July to 6.7 million barrels per day in August. Assuming partial restrictions on the region's oil exports remain in place through the end of this year, Middle East crude oil production is expected to recover to pre-conflict average levels only by 2Q27.(mn/j)