Morgan Stanley said the market had been too optimistic on Meituan's food-delivery unit economics recovery and the normalization of competition in its in-store business, but recent share-price weakness has made expectations more reasonable and created an entry point, according to ETNet. The broker kept its forecast that food-delivery unit economics will recover to RMB1 per order next year and said the market has largely priced out concerns. It also said Meituan's long-term growth potential in other in-store businesses has not been fully reflected, leaving room for upside. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and HK$110 target price. On competition, the broker said Douyin expanded aggressively in in-store dining in the first half of this year, narrowing the gap in gross merchandise value with Meituan, and expects competition to remain intense in the near term. It nevertheless expects Meituan's core competitiveness in other physical-store businesses to remain intact, with a 60% restaurant market share and continued share in other in-store businesses. Morgan Stanley said it remains confident in Meituan's long-term potential, but competition will pressure near-term profits. It forecast Meituan's core local commerce operating profit at RMB14 billion, RMB50 billion and RMB60 billion for 2026 to 2028. In e-commerce, it ranked Alibaba, Meituan, PDD and JD.com in that order.
