I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares fell 2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to 'Sell', citing market share losses to Eli Lilly in GLP-1 treatments and impending patent cliffs for semaglutide in the early-mid 2030s. The downgrade follows survey data indicating slowing adoption of Wegovy and Ozempic due to competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound, Mounjaro, and Foundayo.
Novo Nordisk shares (NVO) fell by 2% to about $43 early Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Thibault Boutherin downgraded the Danish pharma giant from Hold to Sell. Boutherin said the bank's survey points to market share loss for Novo Nordisk over the next 18 months to Eli Lilly's (LLY) rival offerings. He also noted that Novo Nordisk's semaglutide will face large patent expirations in the early-mid 2030s. The analyst set a price target of DKK 250 for Novo Nordisk's shares traded in Copenhagen.
Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Pill Loses Momentum
According to Boutherin, Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Survey of 200 primary care providers shows that adoption of GLP-1s for treating diabetes and obesity is on the rise. Yet, the data shows that Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss injection and pill as well as Ozempic for Type II diabetes, stand to lose market share to Eli Lilly's rival offerings.
The rival offerings are Zepbound for weight-loss, Mounjaro for Type II diabetes, and the Foundayo obesity pill. What's more, the survey showed that Novo Nordisk could lose market share to retatrutide starting in 2027. Retatrutide is Eli Lilly's next-generation experimental obesity drug.
"Latest U.S. prescription data suggest a slowdown in Wegovy pill growth after a strong first half 2026," Boutherin noted. He further explained that "while this could be transitory and seasonal, we see a credible risk that the slowdown is related to more structural factors."
These factors include a slowdown in the large pool of patients waiting for obesity pills. The others are competition from Eli Lilly's Foundayo pill, and upcoming patent expirations.
Novo Nordisk to Face Semaglutide Patent Cliff
Meanwhile, the analyst also pointed to another U.S. prescription data point. The data suggests that Eli Lilly's Zepbound has been capturing the majority of the large demand from Medicare patients since the start of the GLP-1 Bridge program.
U.S. federal health insurance program Medicare launched Bridge in June. The initiative covers obesity drugs for millions of older Americans.
On semaglutide, the analyst believes upcoming patent expirations in the early-mid 2030s could impact Novo Nordisk's earnings. This is because the active ingredient found in Novo Nordisk's drugs is expected to account for about 75% of the company's sales in 2026. Morgan Stanley still expects the number to be high at 59% in 2031.
Is Novo Nordisk a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On Wall Street, analysts remain cautious about Novo Nordisk's shares and still maintain their Hold consensus rating. This is based on five Holds and one Sell issued over the past three months.
Moreover, the average NVO price target of $44 implies a marginal downside risk (see NVO stock forecast here).