--- title: "Morgan Stanley Sees $80 Billion Tesla Semi Opportunity as Diesel Hits Record $6.06" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/298761494.md" description: "Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla's Semi business could add $80 billion in value, driven by record U.S. diesel prices at $6.06 per gallon and potential autonomous software revenue. Analyst Andrew Percoco projects 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, generating $17 billion in software revenue. While autonomous trucks could cut fleet costs by 20%, traders remain skeptical about near-term production ramps, with Kalshi data showing low probabilities for high quarterly output." datetime: "2026-09-11T18:03:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/298761494.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298761494.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298761494.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Morgan Stanley Sees $80 Billion Tesla Semi Opportunity as Diesel Hits Record $6.06 **Tesla Inc.** (NASDAQ:TSLA) could add roughly $80 billion in value from its Semi business, Morgan Stanley says, as U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.06 per gallon. Analyst **Andrew Percoco** says the bigger prize may eventually come from autonomy, with Tesla potentially charging fleets as much as $18,000 a month per truck for self-driving software. ### Morgan Stanley Sees $17 Billion Software Business Percoco put diesel front and center in his Friday note: “$6 Diesel…Enter Tesla Semi.” Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla could have 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, generating roughly $17 billion in software revenue and $7.5 billion in earnings before interest and taxes. Tesla could charge $12,000 to $18,000 per month for autonomous software on each truck, or about $0.85 to $1 per mile. That opportunity adds $20 per share to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla bull case, equivalent to roughly $80 billion in market value. Percoco raised his bull-case target to $840, while keeping an Equal-Weight rating and $400 base-case target. Tesla is trading at $366 at time of writing. ### $6 Diesel Changes the Math Morgan Stanley estimates autonomous trucks could cut fleet costs by roughly 20%, largely through lower labor, fuel and insurance expenses. AAA puts the national diesel average at a record $6.06 per gallon, up about 63% from $3.71 a year ago. Morgan Stanley estimates an autonomous electric truck could eventually generate around $202,000 in annual profit for an operator, compared with nearly $37,000 for a human-driven diesel truck. The bank’s model, however, assumes each autonomous truck travels 18,000 miles a month, more than double typical industry utilization. ### Traders Still Doubt the Ramp Tesla has yet to operate autonomous Semis. **Elon Musk** said in July that Tesla expects to get self-driving working on the truck around the end of 2026 or early 2027. Production is also only starting to ramp. Kalshi traders give Tesla a 37% chance of producing more than 1,000 Semis in any quarter this year and just a 16% chance of topping 5,000. Swedish electric freight company Einride has ordered 500 Tesla Semis, but expects only around 75 to enter service this year. That gives investors a near-term test of how quickly Tesla can turn Morgan Stanley’s long-range forecasts into actual production. *Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.* *Image: Shutterstock* **Read Also: Jensen Huang Mocks Nvidia ‘Circular Financing’ Fears: ‘If That Is, Let’s Do More of That’** ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSLI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLI.US.md) - [TSLO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLO.US.md) - [TSLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLW.US.md) - [TSLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLY.US.md) - [TSYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSYY.US.md) - [TYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TYYY.US.md) - [CRSH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRSH.US.md) - [TSLP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLP.US.md) - [MAGX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MAGX.US.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [ENRD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ENRD.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SSTK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSTK.US.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla’s record month: 4 fatal Autopilot and Full Self-Driving crashes](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299062437.md) - [Tesla to build more than 100 Megacharger stalls across Europe for Semi](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299090353.md) - [Tesla expands Semi Charging for Business to Europe as Semi debuts in Germany](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298963708.md) - [Tesla Semi Is Heading To Europe With One Big Advantage—And One Major Weakness](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298880587.md) - [Tesla unveils European Semi with cameras for side mirrors, deliveries start next year](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298759004.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**