--- title: "Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/299144341.md" description: "U.S. stock futures are trending higher as investors await the Fed's rate decision, with Polymarket odds showing a 60% chance of an S&P 500 open up. While geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns persist, AI sector confidence remains robust despite regulatory fears. The FOMC is expected to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET." datetime: "2026-09-16T06:29:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/299144341.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299144341.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/299144341.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today? U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision and weigh cooling fears over an AI slowdown against the massive economic costs of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The **Polymarket** (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Sept. 16 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?” contract currently reflects a 60% chance of a higher open. ## **Why That Number Matters** Traders are navigating a tense geopolitical environment and a pivotal central bank decision: - **Positive Index Futures:** Equity futures are pointing to a green open across major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures rose 0.15%, S&P 500 futures advanced 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.20%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.12%. - **Geopolitics & Energy:** Oil prices eased slightly after recent surges, with Brent crude dipping 0.66% to $108.03 a barrel and WTI crude falling 1.08% to $104.69. However, the economic fallout of the U.S.-Iran war continues to dominate political discourse. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) highlighted a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the conflict has cost the Department of Defense nearly $40 billion and driven “nearly half” of U.S. inflation. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) slammed President Donald Trump for blaming Ukraine for high diesel prices. - **Earnings & The Fed:** All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. After a run-up in energy prices and persistent inflation, the odds of a rate hike currently stand at 92.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Wednesday’s earnings docket includes reports from **Lennar Corporation** (NYSE:LEN), **LuxExperience B.V.** (NYSE:LUXE), and **Seabridge Gold Inc.** (NYSE:SA). ## **The Bull Case and Market Outlook** Despite the looming threat of higher interest rates, underlying confidence in the technology sector remains robust. According to technology strategist **Luke Lango**, “AI doomerism fears cooled sharply” following the All-In Summit, where tech leaders pushed back against regulatory pacing and reaffirmed their capital expenditure plans. Lango noted that **Broadcom Inc.**‘s (NASDAQ:AVGO) **Hock Tan** confirmed that 2027/2028 guidance remains entirely untouched by slowdown talk. He advised investors to “follow what they do, not what they say,” asserting that AI fundamentals aren’t changing even if market sentiment remains temporarily turbulent. ## **How the Previous Bet Played Out** The Sept. 15 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $53,343 in total trading volume. On Tuesday, the **SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust** (NYSE:SPY) and **Invesco QQQ Trust ETF** (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.46% to $757.39, while QQQ fell 0.65% to $704.54. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, **State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust** (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.62% lower at $521.23. **Read Also: Iran is Defenseless Narrative is Fiction, Says Minister: Hundreds of US Military Sites 'Blown to Pieces'** ***Disclaimer:*** *This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.* *Photo courtesy: Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SPYI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYI.US.md) - [JEPI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JEPI.US.md) - [XYLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XYLD.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [LEN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LEN.US.md) - [LUXE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LUXE.US.md) - [SA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SA.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [LEN.B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LEN.B.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [The stock market's biggest test in weeks is here](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303076352.md) - [A Tough-Talking Fed Failed to Impress the Markets. 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