---
title: "AI-Fueled Global Earnings Boom At Risk As Dems Push Data-Center Moratoriums"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/299348716.md"
description: "UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn warns that global earnings growth is heavily concentrated in AI beneficiaries, creating policy vulnerability. If Democrats advance data-center moratoriums following midterm elections, restrictions could disrupt the core economic driver, impacting not only US tech but also industrial equipment makers and Asian suppliers. This concentration raises risks of a broader market downturn."
datetime: "2026-09-17T16:46:43.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/299348716.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299348716.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/299348716.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# AI-Fueled Global Earnings Boom At Risk As Dems Push Data-Center Moratoriums

UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note on Thursday that **global earnings expectations remain exceptionally strong, but gains are heavily concentrated in technology and companies benefiting from the AI investment supercycle**.

That **concentration creates a potential policy vulnerability that investors must be cautious of**: If Democrats gain ground in November's midterm elections and advance data center moratoriums, restrictions on construction could rip out the core economic growth driver of US earnings, and the **fallout could extend well beyond US technology stocks to industrial equipment makers and Asian component suppliers**.

Recall that Bank of America's Michael Hartnett expects a vicious bear market if Democrats sweep the midterms.

Back to Kapteyn's note, he outlined that tech accounts for **64% of the increase in US forward earnings estimates over the past three months and 96% in emerging markets.** The sector also contributed 37% of the improvement in Japan and 26% in Europe, despite its relatively small weighting there.

"**Taken together, the global earnings cycle - while strong - shows few signs of broadening out, and remains very concentrated among the beneficiaries of AI investment and elevated market activity**," Kapteyn warned.

The **concentration is a major warning sign** for investors as Democrats push for moratoriums and AI safety regulations that could derail the whole economic driver of global markets.

The **rout could go global** because many technology suppliers and industrial equipment makers powering the AI data center buildout are based in Asia.

Earlier this week,Kapteyn warned in a separate note that "this may be the calm before the storm."

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---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**